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  证券时报记者贺觉渊

  4月21日,中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布新一期贷款市场报价利率(LPR)。其中,1年期LPR为3.1%,5年期以上LPR为3.6%,两个品种报价继续保持不变。目前,LPR已连续6个月“按兵不动”。

  LPR是贷款利率定价的主要参考基准。作为LPR的定价基础,央行政策利率未做调整,LPR也缺乏调降动力。从经济基本面看,一季度我国经济运行实现良好开局,且当前社会融资成本已处于历史低位,短期内降低政策利率,并引导LPR下降的紧迫性不强。此外,受外部环境扰动,近期人民币汇率承压,美联储放缓降息节奏也导致中美利差压力增大,进一步制约降息。

  LPR报价加点由报价行共同决定,鉴于当前商业银行净息差水平整体偏低,报价行缺乏调整LPR加点的意愿。4月以来,多家银行已密集下调存款利率,缓解银行负债端成本。湘财证券研报指出,由于贷款是银行的主要生息资产,贷款利率的下调对净息差产生的影响较为直接。因此,净息差承压是短期内不支持LPR调降的因素之一。

  考虑到二季度经济运行可能受到外部冲击影响,市场对于央行在二季度“择机降准降息”的预期持续升温。当前,外部环境更趋复杂严峻,国内结构转型任务仍然较为繁重。4月18日召开的国务院常务会议明确指出,要“加大逆周期调节力度”“持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展”。

  东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对证券时报记者说,综合考虑当前外部经贸环境变化、房地产市场走势及物价水平,二季度“择机降准降息”时机已经成熟。在外部环境急剧变化的背景下,稳楼市的迫切性显著上升。

  随着财政部明确将于4月24日启动1.3万亿元超长期特别国债和5000亿元中央金融机构注资特别国债发行工作,释放在二季度保持较强支出力度的信号后,市场专家认为未来降准或早于降息落地。

  根据财政部发行计划,两类特别国债将主要集中在二三季度发行。此外,地方政府债券、国债尚有较大规模的可用额度。在政府债券加快发行的阶段,银行体系流动性的充裕容易受到扰动,买断式逆回购、净买入国债以及降准等多项货币政策工具可以支持更加积极的财政政策发力见效,打好政策“组合拳”。

  目前我国宏观政策还有充足空间,能够有效应对外部环境的不确定性变化,保持国内经济合理增长。民生证券固定收益首席分析师谭逸鸣表示,财政供给放量可能带来资金面扰动和利率上行压力,央行或通过加大公开市场操作力度、恢复国债买入等方式来投放流动性,预计降准降息的配合窗口也愈发临近,降准或优先于降息。

  2025年4月18日,上海久诚律师事务所许峰律师代理的安妮股份(维权)(002235)投资者索赔案收到厦门中院送达的一批判决书,投资者获得一审胜诉,目前律师团队还在继续推进后续案件的立案工作,还在继续接受后续投资者的索赔委托。需要特别提示的是,安妮股份投资者索赔案诉讼时效已经进入最后半年左右倒计时,提醒投资者注意。

  此前2021年4月6日,安妮股份公告收到证监会《行政处罚决定书》,经查明,安妮股份存在以下违法事实:

  2015年3月2日,安妮股份向深圳市智能时代信息技术有限公司、深圳市鹏程画面传媒有限公司、深圳市鑫港源投资策划有限公司收购了微梦想网络技术有限公司51%股权。2015年3月起微梦想纳入安妮股份财务报告合并范围。

  2015年3至12月期间,微梦想通过虚构交易,确认了来自卓某、季某涛、彭某斌、赖某超、黄某、章某,刘某香等7名客户的销售收入,导致安妮股份2015年年度报告存在虚假记载,虚增营业收入1065.96万元,虚增利润总额876.22万元,占安妮股份当期利润总额的31.89%。

  上海久诚律师事务所主任许峰律师认为,参考前期投资者胜诉判决,在2016年3月10日到2020年10月14日之间买入安妮股份股票,并且在2020年10月14日后卖出或继续持有股票的投资者,目前还可发起索赔,但“过期作废”。

  (本文由上海久诚律师事务所主任许峰律师供稿,不代表新浪财经立场。许峰律师,2008年起律师执业,执业服务范围涉及虚假陈述、内幕交易、操纵市场等证券欺诈领域索赔代理。十几年来已代理近两百只股票的投资者胜诉或调解获赔,同期还在代理诉讼时效内近三百只股票的索赔案件,部分也已有胜诉以及调解获赔先例。执业证号:13101200810965495)

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