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  文/四海

  来源/节点财经

  中国酱香第二股珍酒李渡近日交出了一份并不理想的业绩答卷。

  根据财务报告数据,2024年,珍酒李渡营收70.67亿元,同比仅微增0.5%,归母净利润为13.24亿元,同比下滑43.1%,按照非国际财务报告准则,经调整后净利润为16.76亿元,同比增加3.3%。摊薄后的每股盈利从2023年的0.485元降低到0.400元。

  今日惨淡的表现与昔日的辉煌形成鲜明对比。2023年4月,珍酒李渡在港交所成功上市,打破了中国白酒企业资本市场长达8年的IPO冰封期,也创造了当年港交所融资规模最大的IPO。

  珍酒李渡今日的困境,很大程度上和整个行业不景气相关。《2024年中国酒业高质量发展研究报告》指出,受到大环境影响,酒类消费增长动能不足,市场消化能力偏弱。目前,珍酒李渡收入刚超过70亿,距离百亿俱乐部还有一段距离。如何在全行业增速放缓的情况下,稳住主销市场,完善渠道管理,实现高端化转型成为珍酒李渡接下来需要攻克的难关。

  01高端化承压,业绩支柱销量下滑

  财报显示,2024年,珍酒李渡营收70.67亿,同比微增0.5%,拉长时间来看,2021年-2024年,珍酒李渡营收增速分别为112.7%、14.8%、20.0%和0.5%,也就是说公司营收增速创下了4年最低。具体来看,业绩支柱销量连续下滑是其最为头疼的难题。

  珍酒李渡旗下共有四个品牌,分别为珍酒、李渡、湘窖、开口笑,其中,占总营收比例超6成的珍酒近年来的表现并不理想。

  根据财报,2024年珍酒营收44.79亿元,同比下降2.3%,占总营收的比例由2023年的65.2%下降到2024年的63.4%。拉长时间轴来看,珍酒的销量连续四年一直呈现下滑态势,2021年至2024年销量分别为14761吨、12856吨、12630吨、12284吨。

  其余三个品牌只占总营收的三成,只有李渡的营收同比上升18.3%,至13.13亿元。湘窖营收同比减少3.7%,至8.02亿元,开口笑营收3.37亿元,同比减少12.3%,呈现三降一增的尴尬局面。

  公司坦言,2024年,白酒行业面临若干挑战,特别是白酒消费需求自第二季度开始持续下滑。放眼整个白酒行业,业绩表现不佳似乎是共同难题,Wind数据显示,若剔除贵州茅台,2024年第三季度A股白酒上市公司营收567.1亿元,同比下降6.8%;归母净利润168.5亿元,同比下降8%,单季度利润增速创5年新低。

  行业不景气的大背景下,高端化转型成为珍酒李渡的下一个发力点。

  原因不难理解,强品牌力的企业抗风险能力更强,近年来,白酒行业优势资源也进一步向头部企业集中,呈现以贵州茅台为首,五粮液、山西汾酒、泸州老窖、洋河股份多强竞争的态势。

  珍酒李渡董事长吴向东在财报中直言,未来,白酒品牌的确将呈现分化趋势,并朝着品牌化、品质化和重体验的方向迈进。

  为了提高品牌的高端化形象,过去几年,珍酒李渡推出如定价千元以上的李渡1308、定价800元的李渡1955等。2024年,推出高端光瓶酒、限量发售价值万元以上的超高端战略新品“珍五十”;还打造“国之珍宴”品鉴会、“圣地之旅”回厂游等体验活动。

  2024年第二季度,珍酒李渡更是优化了高档酒事业部的组织架构,进一步聚焦重点市场的高端客户群体的培育,为光瓶系列产品的增长提供支持。第三季度,为发展珍酒的主力单品珍三十单独成立了珍三十事业部。

  然而,珍酒李渡的高端化探索并不顺利,财报显示,珍酒李渡高端产品营收17.09亿元,同比下滑近11%,占比仅为24.2%,2023年则为27.3%,可见高端化转型的阻力较大。

  《节点财经》认为,对于白酒这种十分看重文化沉淀、品牌底蕴的行业来说,高端化的品牌形象绝非一日之功。此外,随着白酒市场的头部效应加深,有全国性品牌孵化能力和运营能力的企业才能在高端市场有更大发展,而珍酒李渡旗下的李渡、湘窖与开口笑均属于“地方性领先品牌”,绝大部分收入均由本地市场贡献,在品牌向上的路上,势必需要长期投入。

  营收之外,再看利润。

  2024年,珍酒李渡毛利同比微增1.5%至41.43亿元,毛利率为58.6%,几乎与去年持平。净利润同比下滑43.1%,财报指出,主要是金融工具的公允价值变动、以权益结算的股权激励费用,以及有关上市的开支等若干项目所致。剔除这些非经营因素,经调整后净利润16.76亿元,同比增长3.3%。

  在营收利润不突出的情况下,该公司经营活动现金流净额7.81亿元,同比大幅增长116.3%。

  从公司财务数据来看,贸易应付账款和票据达到了14.25亿,高于去年同期的10.70亿元。由此推测,经营活动现金流净额大增的原因可能与应付账款及票据的增加有关,存在拖欠供应商货款的可能性。这也意味着今年珍酒李渡的资金流会相对更紧张。

  02存货积压,价格倒挂

  收入不给力,主力产品卖不动了,自然导致存货积压。

  财报显示,2020年至2024年,珍酒李渡存货分别为17.4亿元、36.5亿元、51.4亿元、63.8亿元和75.03亿元,逐年上升。

  再看存货周转效率,2020年至2024年,珍酒李渡的存货周转天数分别为517天,414.4天、612.8天、702.85天以及855天。与五粮液、贵州茅台、洋河股份等同行相比,存货周转天数分别为285天、365天以及540天。

  迫于存货出清的压力,珍酒李渡旗下产品出现价格倒挂的现象。

  主力产品珍十五,官方建议零售价500元/瓶,在珍酒京东自营旗舰店,实际成交价372元;高端产品53度500ml珍三十,官方建议零售价为1888元/瓶,但当前珍酒京东自营旗舰店内,该产品优惠后的价格仅为842元/瓶,而部分店铺中同款产品价格不足800元。

  过高的存货周转天数、混乱的价格体系,对经销商而言,并不是什么好消息。

  2024年珍酒李渡经销商数量增至7635家,但经销商单店营收从2023年的85.76万降到了2024年的83.24万(经销商营收总额/经销商数量)。

  对于目前的困境,珍酒李渡选择了建立更为扁平化的经销商网络。

  在财报中,珍酒李渡提到,为了更好地管理经销渠道,一方面持续利用数字化手段加强对经销渠道各交易环节的监控;另一方面,各品牌的次高端及高端产品系列在渠道政策上进行了模式的创新调整,以便更利于管理渠道秩序并维持价格稳定,将资源倾斜给优质的经销商。也就是说,与过去将产品卖给经销商的模式相比,双方更像是合作关系。

  由买卖关系转为合作方式,也是以茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖、洋河等头部酒企的共同操作,不过,在外界看来这种方式能否奏效还有待观察。白酒分析师蔡学飞表示,这种模式十分考验企业与厂家的合作实力与意愿,而在具体的实操层面容易出现权责不明,影响运营效果。

  考虑到行业的马太效应,消费者端的持续疲软,珍酒李渡前方的挑战还很大。

  特别声明:本文为合作媒体授权DoNews专栏转载,文章版权归原作者及原出处所有。文章系作者个人观点,不代表DoNews专栏的立场,转载请联系原作者及原出处获取授权。(有任何疑问都请联系idonews@donews.com)

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