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2025年4月,美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收“对等关税”,税率高达34%。作为反制措施,中国自4月10日起对原产于美国的进口商品加征34%关税。

国内医药产业格局生变,进口药成本攀升,国产药能否借此崛起?医药产业未来走向又将如何?

医药博弈七年路

自2018年以来,美国颁布了多项对华医药领域的打压政策,此次关税新政看似突发,实则已是早有预兆。

2018年4月,美国根据《301调查》公布首批500亿美元征税清单,涉及122项医药产品,意图削弱中国在低端医疗供应链的优势地位。同年11月,美国实施《外国投资风险评估现代化法案》,将生物科技研发纳入国家安全审查范围,限制中国资本进入美国生物医药领域。

2019年5月,美国国会提出《中国技术转移限制法案》,明确禁止向中国出口生物技术等核心技术。

2022年2月,美国以“未经核实清单”限制药明生物关键设备进口,暴露中国生物医药供应链的对外依赖;同年3月通过《外国公司问责法》,迫使百济神州等中概药企面临退市风险,进一步收紧资本通道。

2023年,美国以打击芬太尼为由,多次制裁中国医药化工企业,扩大实体清单范围。2024年5月,美国白宫宣布分阶段提高低值医疗器械关税。

2025年4月,美国政府再推对等关税政策,九成药品虽在豁免清单中,但对中国医药市场仍有不小冲击。

美国自2018年以来对中国医药领域实施多项打压政策,其核心目的有三:一是维护自身医药产业霸权,通过关税、技术封锁等手段,遏制中国医药企业崛起,巩固其在高端医药市场的主导地位,保障美国企业利润。二是阻碍中国医药产业升级,延缓中国从低端向高端医药领域发展的进程。三是服务国内政治,同时试图主导国际医药规则制定,维护其在全球医药领域的主导权。这些政策虽短期内冲击中国医药市场,但也促使中国加快自主创新和产业升级步伐。

43款美药,谁主沉浮?

若关税政策正式落地,美国对华药品出口是否还维持盈利空间,其背后折射出医药产业链重构的核心逻辑——本土替代策略的可行性。

回溯国际医药贸易框架,WTO《药品协定》明确规定成员国间应免除药品关税。尽管美方曾释放加征关税信号,但最新豁免清单显示,化药制剂、生物制品及大宗原料药等仍被排除在加税范围外,仅有布洛芬等个别原料药被纳入征税目录。这种政策倾斜反映出一个现实:当前阶段,中美医药贸易仍可维持基本稳定,双方尚未启动全面关税反制措施。

然而,政策随时变动的潜在风险不容忽视。若双边税率突破创新药企普遍毛利率阈值时,全部净利润将被吞噬,更将导致毛利润归零,任何企业都难以承受如此极端压力。

聚焦中国市场,美国在华独家原研药现有43款。一旦高关税阻断进口通道,本土仿制药与生物类似药企业将快速填补市场空白。从产业逻辑推演,当医药领域高关税壁垒常态化,美方药品退出中国市场,国产药品将直接进入无竞争市场环境。这无疑是加快推进国产替代的节奏。

图:美药在中国上市销售的43款原研药

来源:根据PharmaONE药物研发大平台整理,中国医药工业信息中心

豁免高地新药突围

现行关税机制以货物贸易差额为计算基准,而我国创新药出海主要是IP转让,通过BD合作对外授权,并不产生实体商品的交易,通常不纳入传统逆差统计范畴。以百济神州为代表的头部企业,选择对目标市场实施本地化生产策略,这种模式同样有效规避了传统货物贸易的关税风险。

数据显示,2024年我国生物医药企业达成的跨境技术许可协议数量与潜在价值总额均突破历史峰值,其中首付款规模达41亿美元,协议总价值累计突破519亿美元。

图:近5年国内药企Licenseout交易情况

来源:根据PDB药物综合数据库整理,中国医药工业信息中心

当前中国创新药企已占据全球授权合作项目总量的14%,价值贡献度达30%,逐步成为国际管线扩充的核心供给端。其技术输出具备显著成本优势——相较欧美同类产品,中国原研分子在保证技术含量的前提下,研发成本压缩幅度达35-50%,为引进方实现研发效率优化,与远期利润空间拓展提供结构性支撑。

小结

关税新政虽豁免绝大部分中国药品,但对医药行业仍有不可小觑的冲击,国内创新分子展现出显著的成本和技术优势,使其在国际市场中的竞争力奠定了基础。关税政策的博弈虽带来挑战,但也为中国医药产业链的重构和本土替代策略的推进创造了新的机遇。

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