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  在近期因关税政策引发的市场波动中,一位亚洲顶尖的垃圾债券投资者选择增持此类债券。该投资者认为,随着违约事件减少以及贸易紧张局势预期缓解,亚洲垃圾债券市场前景向好。瑞银资产管理有限公司亚洲固定收益投资组合管理负责人RaymondGui表示:“我们对2025年亚洲高收益债券市场整体表现持乐观态度。”

  去年,RaymondGui的投资业绩超越了98%的同行。他指出:“与前几年相比,违约率低于预期,加之关税对信贷基本面的直接影响有限,这些因素预计将成为中期市场表现的重要支撑。”

  根据数据显示,RaymondGui管理的瑞银亚洲高收益美元债券基金去年回报率约为16%,远高于其他垃圾债券基金平均9%的回报率。

  尽管市场普遍担忧特朗普的关税政策可能对亚洲出口导向型经济体造成冲击,但许多亚洲高收益债券发行人因更依赖国内市场,所受影响相对较小。此外,投资者还期待,在经历中国房地产开发商债务危机后,亚洲债务违约率将有所下降。中国房地产开发商曾是亚洲市场的重要参与者。

  RaymondGui表示,公司此前的谨慎持仓策略使其能够抓住市场回调机会,按计划于上周增持了“部分超卖”的亚洲高收益债券。他还补充道,尽管亚洲市场确实受到近期全球市场抛售的影响,但从今年以来的表现来看,亚洲市场并未显著落后。

  RaymondGui在三月底曾表示,他对亚洲垃圾债市场“非常看好”,并计划在市场回调时逢低买入。

  上周,亚洲高收益美元债券下跌3.3%,创下2022年9月以来的最大单周跌幅,跌幅远超美国和欧洲同类债券0.7%的跌幅。不过,今年以来,亚洲高收益美元债券仅下跌0.1%,而美国和欧洲同类债券分别下跌0.5%和0.7%。

  然而,部分市场参与者仍对评级较低的亚洲垃圾债券持谨慎态度。高盛集团信用策略师KennethHo等人在4月12日的一份报告中指出,他们维持防御性立场,更倾向于投资亚洲投资级债券而非投机级债券。

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