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  美国国债周五午后走高,连续第二周上涨,几乎收复了本月的失地,迹象显示特朗普政府正在采取措施缓和贸易紧张局势。

  截至纽约时间下午3点后不久,美国国债收益率全线下跌多达5个基点,收益率收于日间低点附近。

  本周美债上涨的同时,美元和美股也反弹,在特朗普4月2日宣布“对等关税”后主导华尔街的“卖出美国”情绪势头减弱。美国政府已暂停部分关税并暗示可能寻求缓和。

  一些投资者对追涨较长期美债仍持谨慎态度。30年期美债周五一度削减涨幅,受部分交易员大量抛售6月到期的超长期国债期货影响。

  美国银行策略师预计较长期债券将继续跑输,这反映出对经济增长放缓和通胀上升的预期以及对供需状况的担忧。MarkCabana等策略师本周调整了年末收益率预测。他们把对2025年底30年期国债收益率的预测从4.8%上调至4.9%,并把对年底2年期国债收益率的预测从4%下调至3.75%。

  摩根资产管理全球固定收益主管BobMichele说美联储关于降息可能性的言论是推动债券市场回升的因素之一。他指出,杠杆债券交易的平仓已经基本结束,同时特朗普政府在贸易冲突方面有所缓和,这两点也对债市形成了支撑。

  Michele表示,“所有这些因素带来了平静,现在促使债券市场转向。”

  截至纽约时间下午3:03,2年期国债收益率下跌3.9个基点,报3.7582%;

  5年期国债收益率下跌5.4个基点,报3.8819%;

  10年期国债收益率下跌5.1个基点,报4.2643%;

  30年期国债收益率下跌4.2个基点,报4.7338%;

  5年和30年期国债收益率差上升约1.2个基点,报85.01个基点;

  2年和10年期国债收益率差下降约1.2个基点,报50个基点。

  美联储在周五发布的报告中指出了与股票和房地产估值相关的风险,表示尽管有些市场本月早些时候下跌,但资产价格仍明显高企。

  “即使在近期下跌之后,目前股价相较于盈利预测仍显偏高,分析师调整盈利预测的速度慢于市场价格。各期限美国国债收益率仍处于2008年以来的较高水平。”

  美联储还在《金融稳定报告》强调了该领域的杠杆问题,指出融资风险令人担忧,但也表示,融资市场在4月初的波动中保持坚韧。该报告反映了截至4月11日的市况和数据。

  这份报告不是预测性报告,其指出,对一些银行而言,固定利率资产的公允价值损失规模仍比较大,继续对利率变化高度敏感。

  央行的市场、研究和学术界联系渠道还提及围绕全球贸易的担忧上升。他们还提及有关政策不确定性和美国债务可持续性的风险。

  “一些受访者还把持续的通胀和资产市场回调视为突出风险,”报告称。美联储指出,这些反馈大多是在4月2日之前收到。

  据知情人士透露,特朗普政府起草了一套谈判框架,用于应对那些急于达成协议以避免关税上调的贸易伙伴。

  不具名消息人士称,根据这份蓝图,美国谈判代表将采用一套模板,列出双方共同关切的领域以指导谈判进程。这些领域包括关税、非关税壁垒、数字贸易、经济安全以及商业问题。

  美国计划每周接待若干国家的谈判代表,分批推进磋商。知情人士补充称,该框架仍可能调整,且美方官员可能就部分国家提出额外议题。

  根据报道,美国计划在三周内以轮换方式与大约18个国家展开磋商,每周安排六国,直至截止日期。

  美国贸易代表办公室在一份声明中表示,“目前正按照一个有组织的、严谨的框架快速推进,与有意向的贸易伙伴展开谈判。”

  声明补充称:“特朗普总统和贸易代表办公室已经明确了美方目标,各贸易伙伴对各自可以提供的条件也已有充分了解。贸易代表办公室已收到数十份来自各国的实质性提案,旨在实现与美国的公平和对等贸易。”

  韩国代表团本周早些时候已与美方进行了磋商,特朗普周五向记者表示,与日本“非常接近”达成协议。

  当地时间4月25日,美国国务院通过其领事事务局,向试图以“生育旅游”为目的持旅游签证入境美国的外国人发出警告。美国务院强调,此类行为违反了美国移民法,是“不可接受的”,领事官员正在积极识别并拒绝与此类行为相关的签证申请。

  此外,美国务院警告称,利用移民制度进行生育旅游的个人可能会面临严重的长期后果,以这种方式滥用移民制度的人可能会失去未来签证或前往美国的资格。(央视记者刘骁骞)

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