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  4月21日,中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布,2025年4月21日贷款市场报价利率(LPR)为:1年期LPR为3.1%,5年期以上LPR为3.6%,均较上期维持不变。这是LPR连续六个月“按兵不动”。

  图片来源:中国货币网 

  业内普遍认为,本月LPR保持不变,符合市场预期。一方面,7天期逆回购利率保持稳定,作为LPR报价的定价基础,其稳定很大程度上预示LPR会保持不变;另一方面,银行净息差仍处在低位,缺乏下调LPR报价加点的动力。

  从经济基本面看,经济保持向好态势,LPR下行迫切性不强。“年初以来LPR持续保持不变,根本上是因为一季度经济走势偏强,LPR下行的迫切性不强。”东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青说。

  从利率角度看,当前无论是企业贷款利率还是个人贷款利率都处于低位。央行数据显示,3月份,企业新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率约为3.3%,比上年同期低约45个基点;个人住房新发放贷款(本外币)加权平均利率约为3.1%,比上年同期低约60个基点。

  往后看,LPR仍有下行空间。民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示,在外部不确定性上升、内部政策效果处于观察期等情况下,央行货币调控“相机抉择”特征会继续体现。

  王青表示,预计二季度政策利率下调将带动LRR报价下调。综合外部经贸环境变化,国内房地产市场和物价走势,二季度“择机降准降息”时机已经成熟。

  “这意味着下一步有力度的政策利率下调将带动LPR下行,进而引导企业和居民贷款利率下调,较大幅度降低实体经济融资成本。这是当前促消费、扩投资,大力提振内需,对冲潜在外需放缓,切实增强宏观经济韧性的有效措施之一。”王青说。

  韩国代理总统韩德洙表示,美国和韩国的关税谈判将于4月24日美国时间早上8点举行。与美国的关税谈判可能不会容易,我们期待本周与美国的首次贸易会议成为有意义合作的开始。

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