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我的美女主人:如何通过影视作品传播中华优秀传统?
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  近日,港股上市公司洪九果品(HK·06689)发布内幕消息公告,公司董事长、总经理、董秘、监事会主席等人分别被采取不同刑事强制措施,公司的主要办公场地也被公安机关限制人员出入。

  违法行为涉及涉嫌骗取贷款以及虚开增值税专用发票……,公司已自2024年3月开始停牌,当时停牌就说有内幕消息要进行公告。

  洪九果品2022年9月上市,上市之初有190亿港元的总市值,被称为水果第一股。

  公司2023年年报还没有披露,2022年年报显示2022年营业收入150.8亿元,归属净利润14.52亿元。

  要点

  目前,多项经济预测显示美国经济将进入“滞胀”阶段,即经济增长停滞且通胀高企。

  关税会推高消费价格,同时减缓经济增长,随着就业市场恶化,会从两方面挤压家庭预算。

  各国央行发现,用货币政策来应对滞胀十分困难,因为解决其中一个问题只会让另一个问题变得更糟。

  如果美国经济躲过了由关税引发的经济衰退,经济学家认为出现会带来财务痛苦的“滞胀”的风险正在增加。

  对于唐纳德・特朗普总统发动的贸易战是否会将经济拖入衰退,预测者们仍存在分歧。但即便能躲过衰退,近期的许多预测都强调了出现一段高通胀和低经济增长时期(即“滞胀”)的风险。包括美联储官员在内的众多预测者预计,关税会减缓经济增长、损害就业市场,同时推高消费价格。

  StifelFinancial的首席经济学家林赛・皮格扎(LindseyPiegza)认为,就业市场和消费支出具有足够的韧性,所以只要最近宣布的关税能通过谈判降低,经济很可能会躲过贸易战带来的全面衰退。

  然而,这并不意味着经济会一切顺利。她认为,在接下来的几个季度里,经济增长将接近零。

  她说:“经济基本上处于不加速的状态,如果这种不加速的情况持续到今年下半年,我认为长期的滞胀对美国经济来说是一个重大风险。事实上,我认为这比全面的经济下滑或衰退的风险更大。”

  皮格扎并不是唯一一位敲响滞胀警钟的知名经济学家。彼得森国际经济研究所(PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics)所长亚当・波森(AdamPosen)本周在为《外交事务》(ForeignAffairs)撰写的一篇文章中提出了这个问题。

  波森写道:“正如特朗普声称想要实现的那样,将意味着滞胀,这是20世纪70年代以及新冠疫情期间出现的宏观经济噩梦,当时经济萎缩,同时通胀上升。”

  滞胀有多糟糕呢?20世纪70年代,美国上一次经历长期的高通胀和低增长时期时,经济学家发明了一种衡量滞胀的方法。这是一种将通胀率和失业率结合起来的指标,叫做“痛苦指数”。这个名字反映了在物价上涨时人们的预算有多紧张,以及在经济停滞的情况下找工作有多困难。

  从历史上看,美联储在应对滞胀时举步维艰

  滞胀对普通家庭的预算来说是个难题,对于央行官员们来说也绝非易事。

  他们影响经济的主要工具——货币政策,可以帮助抑制通胀或促进就业市场,但无法同时做到这两点。美联储可以降低其基准联邦基金利率来刺激经济,但如果通胀率高于央行设定的每年2%的目标,它可能就不太愿意这么做。美联储可以提高利率来对抗通胀,但这会损害本就已经受损的就业市场。

  美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔(JeromePowell)在周三的一次演讲中承认了应对滞胀的难度,称其为“具有挑战性的情形”。

  皮格扎说:“滞胀确实让政策制定者陷入了困境,使得原本用于刺激经济的传统货币政策指标基本上失去了作用。美联储会倾向于提高利率以试图消除通胀。但经济已经极度疲软了。反之亦然……所以我认为滞胀是目前美国经济面临的最大风险。”

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