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哎,兄弟,这事儿我也纳闷啊!金价都飙到历史最高位了,紫金这货咋就磨磨唧唧不跟涨呢?我琢磨着大概有这几个门道儿:

首先,挖金子是真烧钱。别光看金价涨得欢,紫金他们挖矿的成本这几年蹭蹭往上涨,电费、人工、环保投入全在涨。去年财报里说他们每克黄金成本涨了12%,相当于金价涨的钱全被成本吃了很大一部分,利润没想象中那么肥。好比菜市场白菜涨价了,但菜贩子进货价也涨,最后赚的差价还是没变。

其次,矿不是想挖就能挖。听说新矿从勘探到出金子得等个五到十年,现在紫金手上的矿产量增速才5%,金价涨40%但产量只涨这点,就像饭店涨价但桌子没增加,赚的钱自然有限。再加上他们前几年在海外买矿,秘鲁那摊子事儿还没完全消化,市场也怕有雷没爆干净。

还有,炒股的人精着呢。去年金价刚开始涨的时候,紫金股价早早就冲了一波,现在虽然金价新高,但大伙儿觉得之前涨得差不多了,都在等业绩实打实出来。就像你看好一部电影,预告片出来股价就涨过了,等真上映反而没人炒了。再加上现在炒黄金都流行玩ETF和期货,钱都往那儿跑,股市反而冷清了。

最后,大环境也添乱。美联储一会儿说要降息一会儿又嘴硬,美元汇率上蹿下跳的,搞得黄金股既要看金价脸色,还得防着汇率背刺。再加上最近中东那边局势紧张,按理说该利好黄金,但炒股的人反而更慌,宁愿直接囤金条也不碰股票。

不过话说回来,紫金最近一季报利润暴涨60%,港股那边已经开始有资金进场抄底了。要是下半年金价真像高盛说的冲4000美元,这货迟早得补涨。现在这走势就像拉弓,弓弦绷得越紧,后面射得越远。对散户来说,这时候就得比谁更有耐心,别被短期波动晃下车咯。

个人观点,仅供参考。

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