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  4月25日,舍得酒业(600702)公布2025年一季报,公司营业收入为15.8亿元,同比下降25.1%;归母净利润为3.46亿元,同比下降37.1%;扣非归母净利润为3.43亿元,同比下降37.1%;经营现金流净额为2.24亿元,同比增长106.8%;EPS(全面摊薄)为1.039元。

  截至一季度末,公司总资产121.79亿元,较上年度末增长3.2%;归母净资产为71.01亿元,较上年度末增长4.3%。

  2025年第一季度报告显示,在多个业务领域的表现情况。主要从事高端白酒的生产和销售,旗下拥有多个知名品牌,致力于传承和创新中国白酒文化。

  此外,进行了股份回购,计划以集中竞价交易方式回购股份,回购总金额不低于1亿元且不超过2亿元,显示出对未来发展的信心。通过这些措施,希望能够进一步提升股东价值,并激励员工的积极性。

  4月25日金融一线消息,中国平安今日公布截至2025年3月31日止三个月期间业绩。2025年第一季度,集团实现归属于母公司股东的营运利润379.07亿元,同比增长2.4%;其中,寿险及健康险业务归属于母公司股东的营运利润268.64亿元,同比增长5.0%。集团总资产突破13万亿元,达13.18万亿元。

  来源:《理财周刊》

  葡萄酒“龙头”业绩大跌。

  4月17日晚,张裕A(000869.SZ)交出了2024年的成绩单:2024年公司实现营收32.77亿元,同比下滑25.26%;实现归母净利润3.05亿元,同比暴跌42.68%;扣非后归母净利润仅为1.31亿元,同比下降71.76%。

  早在2023年年报中,张裕A为公司定下的2024年目标是力争实现营业收入不低于47亿元。然而如今,不仅离先前定下的目标差距甚大,而且营收和归母净利润都创近十年来最低水平。

  这样的业绩表现,市场也不认可。年报发布次日,张裕A的股价一开盘便开始下跌,至收盘,股价报收22.20元/股,日内跌幅达2.80%。随后几天又发生了几次不同程度的下跌,截至4月25日收盘,张裕A股价为22.73元/股,总市值为153亿元,市盈率(TTM)为50倍。

  然而回顾过去,2010年张裕A的巅峰时期股价达87.63元/股,如今其市值却已跌破至153亿元。为何葡萄酒龙头衰落至此,如今又遇到了什么问题?

  百年品牌的新困境:

  市场需求萎缩,行业竞争加剧

  据公司官网介绍,张裕A的历史最早可以追溯到1892年,爱国侨领张弼士先生在烟台创办了张裕酿酒公司,开创了中国工业化生产葡萄酒的先河。2002年,张裕在中国率先引入“酒庄”概念,在烟台、辽宁、北京、宁夏、陕西、新疆六大优质产区建成了8大酒庄。此外,张裕还加速全球布局,陆续在法国、西班牙、智利、澳大利亚收购6座酒庄。经过多年发展,张裕A已成为中国乃至亚洲最大的葡萄酒生产经营企业之一。

  目前,公司主营业务涵盖葡萄酒、白兰地、起泡酒、保健酒等多品类酒产品的生产与销售,其中葡萄酒和白兰地是其核心业务板块,两者合计占公司营收的96.98%。在国内市场,张裕A凭借悠久历史沉淀、庞大销售网络以及丰富产品线,占据重要地位。

  然而,近年来张裕A却陷入了业绩困境。2019年打断了张裕A从2014年到2018年营收稳步上升的走势,当年实现营收50.31亿元,同比下滑2.16%;在2020年,下滑趋势叠加疫情影响,当年营收暴跌33.08%,仅为33.95亿元。随后几年业绩虽稍有恢复,但还是不及疫情前;而在2024年,张裕A的营收水平再次大跌,成为近十年来最差。

  从业务结构来看,公司两大核心板块葡萄酒与白兰地均呈现全线下滑态势。葡萄酒产品全年营收24.38亿元,同比下降22.32%;白兰地业务颓势更为明显,营收同比骤降35.80%至7.40亿元。

  最近几年,随着消费理念转变以及宏观经济进入调整期,葡萄酒行业正面临着严峻的市场环境。

  国际葡萄与葡萄酒组织(OIV)4月15日发布的报告显示,2024年全球葡萄酒消费量为214亿升,同比下降3.3%,创60年来最低水平;而在中国市场,下跌更加剧烈,2024年葡萄酒消费同比降幅达19.3%,国产葡萄酒行业正面临前所未有的结构性挑战。

  图片来源:网络

  与此同时,进口葡萄酒的冲击也给国产葡萄酒行业带来了巨大压力。据中国海关总署公布的数据显示,2024年全年葡萄酒进口金额为15.92亿美元,同比增长37.2%,进口量为2.8亿升,同比增长13.6%,五年来首次迎来增长。

  这一增长现象主要由重新回归中国市场的澳大利亚葡萄酒带动。2024年全年,澳大利亚瓶装酒进口量达到3422.49万升,同比增长203倍,进口额达到5.47亿美元,同比增长570倍,位居中国葡萄酒进口额排行榜首位。进口葡萄酒凭借其品牌知名度、产品质量以及价格优势,在国内市场迅速抢占份额,对张裕A等国产葡萄酒企业形成了强有力的竞争。

  图源:中国葡萄酒资讯网

  在国内市场,张裕A还面临着来自白酒、黄酒、啤酒等其他酒种企业的竞争。白酒企业纷纷布局低度酒市场,如茅台推出“悠蜜”12款低度果酒,洋河的“微分子”等;啤酒企业则主推高端化,力图打入高端餐饮、休闲市场。这些消费群体高度重合的产品,对消费场景较为单一的葡萄酒是个不小的冲击,进一步压缩了葡萄酒的市场空间。

  10亿元营销难挡销量下滑

  净利不够资产处置来凑

  张裕A自身产品销量下滑问题也十分突出。2024年,公司葡萄酒产品销量为5.77万吨,同比下滑12.22%;白兰地产品销售量为2.05万吨,同比下降31.56%。

  然而,尽管销量大幅下滑,张裕A的营销投入却仍然居高不下。2024年张裕A的销售费用为10.13亿元,同比下降18.29%;同时,过去一年里,张裕A经销商数量继续增加,总计增加了121家,至5180家经销商。

  图源:张裕A2024年度财报

  值得注意的是,与10亿元销售费用相对的是,2024年张裕A的研发费用仅0.20亿元,销售占比仅0.60%。

  费用控制仍需努力,下游需求持续萎缩,同时受成本压力与终端价格体系的双重挤压,2024年张裕A葡萄酒的毛利率为57.32%,较上年减少2.91个百分点;白兰地的毛利率为58.26%,较上年减少2.99个百分点。

  张裕A净利润不断下滑,扣除非经常性损益后的净利润下滑更为显著。公司2024年全年归母净利润为3.05亿元,扣非后归母净利润仅为1.31亿元,同比下降71.76%。

  具体来看,2024年张裕A录得非经常性收益为1.74亿元,其中来自葡萄园等资产处置收益为1.27亿元,这部分收益占归母净利润比例达57.05%,超过了同期主营业务贡献的利润额。

  图源:张裕A2024年度财报

  此外,2024年度公司计入当期损益中有5261.39万元来自补助费用。资产处置收益和补贴资金具有一次性特征,难以持续支撑未来业绩。

  不佳的业绩也影响到了公司经营性现金流。截至2024年末,张裕A经营活动产生的现金流量净额为3.98亿元,同比下降66.09%,期末现金及现金等价物净额为-2.45亿元,同比下降170.04%,公司现金流的短期压力有所增加。由于销售额同比下降导致公司销售商品、提供劳务收到的现金同比下降,这直接影响了公司的资金回笼和日常运营资金的周转。

  自2018年以来,张裕A葡萄酒的存货一直在28亿元上下波动。2024年末,公司存货29亿元,其中最多的是19.2亿元的在产品,其次是7亿元的库存商品,库存商品比上年增长约1亿元。

  基于当前的市场形势,张裕A下调了2025年的营收目标。公司在财报中表示,2025年公司将力争实现营业收入不低于34亿元,这一数据较2024年实际营收增长约3.7%。同时,公司力争将主营业务成本及三项期间费用控制在30亿元以下。从这一经营目标来看,张裕A对2025年的市场形势仍持谨慎态度,设定的营收增长目标较为保守。

  但在当前行业竞争激烈、市场需求萎缩的大环境下,张裕A要实现这一经营目标也并非易事。公司需要在产品创新、市场拓展、成本控制等多个方面采取有效措施,提升自身的核心竞争力。(《理财周刊-财事汇》出品)

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