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石榴蕾丝榴莲向日葵草莓丝瓜秋葵:开启生物学习的全新体验
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  新华财经北京4月24日电在美国总统特朗普收回有关解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的言论后,投资者周三(23日)重新买入较长期美债,10年期美债收益率小幅下行。与此同时,衡量美元兑一篮子六种主要货币的洲际交易所美元指数上涨0.7%,此前触及三年多来的最低水平,美国三大股指当天均收高。

  据美国财政部数据,截至当天收盘,2年期美债收益率跌5BPs至3.81%,与上周五持平;10年期美债收益率一度持平于4.387%,收于4.40%;30年期美债收益率跌5BPs至4.83%,早盘一度下跌15.5BPs,创下八个多月来的最大单日跌幅。

  上周,参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦警告说:“如果美联储主席被美国总统解雇,美国市场将崩溃。”

  几个星期以来,美元和美债一直是“抛售美国”交易的中心。不过,随着投资者和交易员重新买入较长期美债,美元兑主要货币周三走高,主要市场的反弹似乎让人松了一口气,这表明“抛售美国”的交易暂停了。然而,考虑到白宫的贸易战已经对美国经济、消费者和企业信心以及未来可能的通胀造成的损失,目前的缓解反弹能持续多久还有些疑问。

  尽管周三各资产的反应大多为积极,但一些市场人士仍在考虑美国经济仍可能放缓或美元在未来数年继续下行。标准普尔全球发布的数据显示,贸易战正在加剧通货膨胀,减缓美国经济,抑制商业信心。

  “我们认为,从较长期来看,美元将在下一个商业周期,或未来三到五年走软,”佛罗里达Agile投资管理公司合伙人兼高级投资组合经理皮特·阿齐纳罗表示。“未来的趋势将是多元化,从美国转向欧洲和亚洲。这是一个持续数年,甚至可能是数十年的过程,而这个过程才刚刚开始。”

  他指出,美国联邦债务是一个令人担忧的问题。截至周三,这一数字约为36.2万亿美元。与此同时,政府的支出比2025财年的收入多出近1.31万亿美元,这也让许多投资者感到不安。

  阿齐纳罗表示:“美元几十年来一直是避风港,但由于我们的债务水平,投资者开始质疑这一点。特朗普放大了美国债务问题。当然,这个债务累计由来已久。”

  他认为,由于流动性充足,债券市场并没有失去任何避险吸引力,这应该会使10年期美债收益率今年保持在4%-4.5%的区间。

  美联储周三发布的褐皮书显示,美国部分地区物价正在上涨,经济活动已开始放缓。一些地区报告称,价格正在快速变化或即将大幅上涨,并暗示即将出现裁员。

  美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周三也对美元发表了看法。他在华盛顿国际金融协会的一次活动上表示,“强势美元意味着强有力的政策,我们需要回到长期可持续的预算赤字状态。”

  蒙特利尔银行资本市场策略师伊恩·林根和韦尔·哈特曼表示,他们不愿将特朗普最近的政策转向解读为“一个拐点,意味着白宫未来的政策波动性会降低”。不过,他们表示,“隔夜开始的对美债的“稳定买盘”还有更大的空间,因为投资者至少从鲍威尔将继续执掌联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)到2026年5月这一事实中找到了一些安慰。”

  国际货币基金组织表示,美国新一轮高关税带来的经济压力将使全球公共债务在2030年超过疫情时期的水平,达到全球生产总值的近100%,因经济成长和贸易双双放缓给政府预算带来压力。IMF最新的财政监测报告预测,2025年全球公共债务相当于GDP的比例将增加2.8个百分点,达到95.1%;这一上升趋势可能持续下去,到2030年达到全球GDP的99.6%。

  欧债方面,欧债收益率跃升至逾一周以来的最高,2年期德债收益率跃升8BPs至1.743%,10年期德债收益率上涨6BPs至2.503%,10年期意债收益率涨0.6BP至3.636%,10年期法债收益率涨0.4BP至3.242%。

  美债一级市场方面,美国财政部周三发行了3期债券共1600亿美元,其中17周短债发行600亿美元,5年期债券发行700亿美元,2年期浮息债券发行300亿美元;周四将发行3期债券共2040亿美元,其中4周和8周短债分别发行850亿和750亿美元,7年期债券发行440亿美元。

  编辑:张煜

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  4月24日,人民币兑美元中间价报7.2098,上调18点。

  美联储“褐皮书”:经济不确定性增加多地前景显著恶化

  当地时间4月23日,美联储发布经济状况“褐皮书”。褐皮书显示,自上次报告以来,经济活动几乎没有变化,但国际贸易政策的不确定性在各份报告中普遍存在。仅有五个地区经济活动略有增长,三个地区报告经济活动基本保持不变,其余四个地区报告经济活动略有下降。

  总体而言,休闲和商务旅行均有所下降,一些地区的国际游客数量也有所下降。房屋销售量有所上升,许多地区继续保持低库存水平;净贷款需求持平或略有上升;一些地区的非金融服务需求有所下降。总体而言,运输活动略有增长。制造业表现不一,但三分之二的地区表示制造业活动变化不大或有所下降。能源行业略有增长。多个地区的农业状况相对稳定。随着经济不确定性的增加,特别是围绕关税的不确定性,多个地区的前景显著恶化。

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