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  近期,特朗普单方面挑起关税战,导致全球贸易受到严重影响,全球资本市场也出现剧烈波动。特朗普发起本轮贸易战的借口是美国存在巨大的贸易逆差,他希望通过加征高额关税来减少美国的逆差,并逼迫制造业回流美国。然而,这种做法不符合经济规律,也不符合全球贸易格局的客观要求。

  美国作为世界上最大的债务国,长期以来通过向世界借款维持其经济运行。其他国家在向美国出口商品获得美元后,通常会购买美国国债。这种模式已经延续了几十年。目前,美国政府的负债总额已突破36万亿美元,而2024年美国GDP约为29万亿美元,这意味着美国政府债台高筑,去年美国支付的国债利息已接近9000多亿美元,给美国政府带来了巨大压力。

  特朗普名义上以美国贸易逆差为由发起关税战,但本质上是因为美国政府负债累累,希望通过关税战作为借口,逼迫主要贸易伙伴购买美国国债。这也反映出美国大量向世界借款维持政府运转的模式可能已接近临界点。

  根据经济学家特里芬在上世纪60年代提出的理论——特里芬难题,美元既是美国的货币,又是全世界的货币。因此,美元需要通过美国进口大于出口的方式输出到全世界,其他国家再用美元购买美国国债或投资美国股票等资产。这意味着美国商品贸易出现逆差是必然的,是美元作为世界支付货币的必然现象,相当于美国通过发行国债向世界借钱来维持经济运转。

  然而,随着美国政府负债不断增加,其他国家对美国政府的信用产生质疑。特别是特朗普出尔反尔的做法,引发了众多投资者的担忧,一些海外投资者开始通过抛售美国国债来表达不满。近期美国国债收益率飙升,十年期美国国债收益率最高达到4.52%,30年期美国国债收益率上升到5%左右。这反映出美国主导的世界货币秩序已接近临界点,特里芬拐点可能出现。

  特朗普此时发起关税战,除了与其个人急功近利、希望获得政治遗产有关外,也与美国当前所处的经济阶段密切相关。美国发起关税战,只看到了商品项目下的巨额逆差,却忽视了美国在金融资本项目下的巨额顺差。特朗普的贸易战反而引发了更多资本对美国政府信用的担忧,引发了美债抛售潮。

  近期美国一度出现股债汇“三杀”局面,反映出特朗普此时发起关税战是一步臭棋。美国许多知名人士公开批评特朗普的政策。例如,“股神”巴菲特指出,关税战如同一场战争,可能导致许多外贸企业经营困难甚至破产,同时给美国人民带来物价翻倍上涨,进一步推高美国通胀水平,导致美联储虽担心美国经济增速放缓,却不敢降息。美国前财政部长耶伦也表示,特朗普在美国经济正常运行的情况下发起关税战是非常错误的决策,可能会使美国经济陷入衰退。就连支持特朗普上台的马斯克也公开反对关税战,他转发了一篇以铅笔为例说明自由贸易好处的文章,表明全球经济是一个不可分割的产业链,而非单独某一环,这显示出马斯克支持自由贸易的立场。

  当前,美国主导的货币秩序可能面临拐点,我们要从更大格局看待特朗普发起的关税战,从而制定更好的应对策略。我国在应对美国关税战时,保持了坚定的反制策略,对等进行反制。因为特朗普以关税战作为讹诈手段来达到目的,而我国作为世界第二大经济体,也是150多个国家的主要贸易伙伴,完全没有必要畏惧特朗普的威胁,而是要坚持原则,保障合法权益,以谈促和,以打促和。时间站在我们这边,我们全国一盘棋,众志成城,14亿人坚定支持党中央的决定。而在美国,特朗普几乎是一个人在战斗,无论是美国居民还是政客、商人,几乎都反对贸易战。因此,在巨大压力下,特朗普可能会主动找台阶下,寻求与我们谈判。

  美国主导的货币秩序可能需要重建,而我们正在推进人民币国际化,并在贸易方面不断进行多元化布局。自2018年特朗普发起贸易战以来,我国对美国出口的占比已从19%降至14%左右,大大减少了对美国市场的依赖,同时增加了对“一带一路”国家、欧洲、日韩等其他国家和地区的出口。我们逐步推动人民币国际化,与越来越多的贸易伙伴使用人民币结算,减少对美元支付的依赖。在美元受到世界各国质疑时,我们可以在全球经济再平衡中赢得战略主动。我们要坚持改革开放,而不是像特朗普那样加征关税,从而赢得更多主动权。例如,我们可以争取加入环太平洋贸易协定,进一步扩大自由贸易区,与更多国家实现自由贸易,并推动更多国际贸易直接用人民币结算,提升人民币在国际支付中的占比,最终实现与美元分庭抗礼。在美元信用受到质疑时,我们要抓住机遇,实现更大的战略目标。

  因此,特朗普发起的关税战对我们来说既是挑战,也是百年一遇的机遇。此次特朗普再次入主白宫后发起贸易摩擦,我们的策略与2018年有较大不同。首先,我们果断进行反制,对美国所有进口商品加征对等关税,毫不退让。其次,我们集中精力办好自己的事,出台一揽子政策提升国内需求,专注国内经济增长。只有经济稳定,我们在与美国的关税谈判中才能占据有利地位。同时,商务部与美国企业代表会谈,并与欧洲、东盟等国进行会谈,向全世界释放出我们坚持多边主义的信号,坚定推进改革开放。这显示出中国作为负责任大国,在维护全球多边贸易和各国一律平等原则上树立了大国责任,此次我们显得更加成熟。

  针对特朗普的软肋,我们采取了相应措施。特朗普明年面临中期选举压力,而美国国内反对关税战的声音越来越高,每天几乎有上千场游行示威。这使我们在战略上获得主动。我们对美国谈判的大门一直是开放的,但谈判必须在美国有诚意、公平和平等的原则下进行。我们需要等待时机,相信特朗普最终会选择通过谈判解决中美贸易争端,让中美关系回到正轨,让中美贸易顺利进行,我们期待这一天早日到来。

  (作者系前海开源基金首席经济学家、基金经理)

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