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来源:@国际金融报微博

4月25日,A股三大指数涨跌不一,沪指跌0.07%,深成指涨0.39%,创业板指涨0.59%,北证50指数跌1.11%。全市场成交额11370亿元,较上日缩量19亿元。全市场超2800只个股上涨。

盘面上,AI硬件板块走强,致尚科技、仕佳光子午后触及20cm涨停。电力板块持续走高,九洲集团等10余股涨停。创新药板块多数调整,房地产板块冲高回落。

周五,中共中央政治局召开会议,要求持续稳定和活跃资本市场。近期,重磅利好消息接连传来,密集释放稳定信号。

分析人士认为,中美之间的贸易摩擦是一场长期的较量,未来供应链重塑势在必行。A股指数或将维持低位震荡走势,短期内风险偏好较低,资金偏向于公共服务、银行、现金流充裕的国央企以及内需政策增量的相关板块。

重磅消息密集释放

近几日,重磅利好消息接连传来,高层密集释放稳定经济及金融市场信号,有力提振市场信心。

周五,中共中央政治局召开会议,会议指出,要不断完善稳就业稳经济的政策工具箱,既定政策早出台早见效,根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策,加强超常规逆周期调节,全力巩固经济发展和社会稳定的基本面。

同时,会议指出,要持续用力防范化解重点领域风险。继续实施地方政府一揽子化债政策,加快解决地方政府拖欠企业账款问题。加快构建房地产发展新模式,加大高品质住房供给,优化存量商品房收购政策,持续巩固房地产市场稳定态势。持续稳定和活跃资本市场。

4月23日至24日,二十国集团(G20)主席国南非在美国华盛顿举行今年第二次G20财长和央行行长会议。会议主要就全球宏观经济形势和金融稳定、国际金融架构,以及促进非洲增长和发展等议题进行了讨论。财政部部长蓝佛安出席会议并发言,副部长廖岷陪同参会。蓝佛安介绍了中国经济稳中向好态势及政策取向和中国支持非洲发展的重要举措。

美国东部时间4月24日,中国人民银行行长潘功胜在出席国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季例会系列会议时表示,一季度中国经济开局良好,延续回升向好态势,国内生产总值(GDP)同比增速达5.4%。尽管面临全球不确定性和外部冲击,中国的金融体系保持稳健,金融市场展现出较强韧性,运行平稳。

全国人大常委会法工委发言人、研究室主任黄海华4月25日表示,2025年度立法工作计划共安排继续审议的法律案14件、初次审议的法律案23件。其中,完善有利于推动高质量发展的体制机制方面,制定民营经济促进法、金融法、金融稳定法、中国人民银行法、银行业监督管理法等。

AI硬件走强

大盘方面,今日,AI硬件板块走强,致尚科技、仕佳光子午后触及20cm涨停,源杰科技、太辰光、新易盛涨幅居前。

消息面上,工信部等七部门印发《医药工业数智化转型实施方案(2025—2030年)》提出,开展“人工智能赋能医药全产业链”应用试点。

电力板块早盘拉升,午后临近尾盘持续走高,九洲集团、华电能源、华银电力等10余股涨停。

消息面上,国家能源局今日发布消息称,2025年一季度,我国风电光伏发电合计新增装机7433万千瓦,累计装机达到14.82亿千瓦(其中风电5.36亿千瓦,光伏发电9.46亿千瓦),首次超过火电装机(14.51亿千瓦)。未来随着风电光伏装机新增装机持续快速增长,风电光伏装机超过火电将成为常态。

银河证券指出,国家对清洁能源的支持政策持续加码,为行业发展提供有力保障。风光装机量显著增长,显示新能源领域的强劲发展势头,为相关企业带来长期增长潜力。

房地产冲高回落

房地产板块冲高回落,招商蛇口、城投控股、城建发展等股午后跳水翻绿。

华泰证券表示,进入二季度,从多个角度来看,房地产行业正迎来增量政策窗口:前瞻数据已出现季节性回落,步入传统的政策窗口期的同时,又迎来美国“对等关税”超预期,此时出台增量政策具有较强的可能性和迫切性,后续应关注潜在增量政策出台对板块所带来的投资机会。

创新药板块今日多数调整,江苏吴中(维权)跌停,苑东生物、华纳药厂跌超10%。

指数或低位震荡

本周市场小幅震荡上行,未出现部分投资人所担心的二次探底,但向上冲高的压力同样很大。周中,特朗普表态中美未来有可能达成关税协议,部分有助于缓解金融市场的紧张情绪。周五,中共中央政治局会议围绕经济展开,明确阐明了要实施积极有为的宏观政策。受访人士普遍认为,随后这些政策会逐步落地实施。

对此,融智投资基金经理夏风光在接受《国际金融报》记者采访时表示,市场的情绪在持续回暖的趋势中。当前指数距离国家队积极入市的区间(3240—3280)已非常接近。经济政策的落地能带来多大的向上弹性空间,关键在于其能否有效传导至企业盈利增速的恢复,以及市场对未来形成的一致预期。显然,当前市场类似于一个隐性的看涨期权,这也有助于进一步凝聚做多力量。

恒生前海基金认为,当前关税风险基本已经计价,预计指数将维持低位震荡走势。内循环经济及国产替代或将成为中长期主线,相关行业及公司整体盈利中枢或将出现上移。同时,在外部扰动出现后,高层积极应对经济下行风险,预计货币、财政领域的政策力度将持续加强。

鸿涵投资表示,美国财政部长贝森特发表演讲,称与中国有机会达成协议,美国可以加强制造业重塑贸易平衡,而中国需要减少对外出口的依赖,中美双方可以合作,达成协议需要2至3年。中美之间的贸易摩擦是一场长期的较量,未来供应链重塑势在必行。短期看,政策回摆不确定性很大,适逢长假避险需求,以及反弹接近敏感区域,维持相对谨慎判断。中期看,以我为主,内循环、遵循产业趋势还是主基调。

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