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苏璧禾冉青铉:未来产业布局的关键因素是什么?

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  2025年4月24日-25日,国际货币基金组织(以下简称基金组织)在美国华盛顿特区召开第51届国际货币与金融委员会(IMFC)会议,会议讨论了全球经济金融形势、基金组织工作等议题。中国人民银行行长潘功胜出席会议并发言。中国人民银行副行长宣昌能参加会议。

  会议认为,世界经济正处于关键转折点。近期贸易紧张局势加剧,导致不确定性和市场波动,给经济增长和金融稳定带来风险。会议重申支持强劲的、以份额为基础的、资源充足的基金组织作为全球金融安全网的核心,期待各国尽快完成第十六次份额总检查下份额增资的国内批准程序。会议认为,基金组织份额占比调整应旨在更好反映成员在全球经济中的相对比重,同时保护最贫困国家发言权。

  潘功胜指出,当前全球经济增长动能偏弱,下行风险突出。近期美国滥施关税,严重侵犯各国正当权益,严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制,严重冲击全球经济秩序,破坏全球经济长期稳定增长;同时也引发全球金融市场剧烈波动,发达经济体尤为严重。这对全球金融稳定造成威胁,对新兴市场经济体和发展中国家构成严峻挑战。

  潘功胜强调,各国亟须加强宏观经济政策协调,支持多边贸易体系,推动经济全球化朝着更加开放、包容、普惠、均衡的方向发展,共同促进全球经济金融稳定。中国坚持真正的多边主义,是经济全球化和贸易自由化的倡导者、世贸组织的坚定维护者和支持者,积极参与全球经济治理,致力于建设开放型世界经济。中国愿进一步深化与基金组织的合作,支持基金组织在维护全球经济金融稳定方面发挥更大的作用。

  潘功胜指出,基金组织作为全球金融安全网的核心,继续推动份额改革对提高基金组织的合法性、有效性和代表性至关重要。基金组织是以份额为基础的机构,份额占比调整是治理改革最重要的组成部分,应尽快实现份额占比调整,使其反映成员国在全球经济中的相对地位,增加新兴市场和发展中国家的代表性。中国呼吁各方尽快完成内部程序,早日推动第十六次总检查承诺的份额增资生效,并加快第十七次份额总检查的准备工作,包括对新份额公式的讨论,维护基金组织信誉,早日实现有意义的份额调整。

专题:中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)2025

  中国人民大学中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)季度论坛(2025年第一季度)于4月26日举行,中国人民大学经济学院教授、中国宏观经济论坛(CMF)主要成员于泽发布题为《积极进取的中国宏观经济》报告。

  报告建议,创新房地产调控思路,加快构建房地产市场新型治理体系。

  报告指出,我国房地产市场供求已经发生了重大变化,需要从此为着力点,构建系统性的调整方案。构建完整的政策体系需要时间,短期加大力度稳地产,中长期妥善引导房地产行业转型

  第一,加大政府加杠杆力度。

  相较2014-16年房地产调控政策,此轮政策放松仍有较大空间,后续应围绕“稳预期、稳房价、稳地产”,进一步加大力度打开需求端限制性政策:一方面,继续在核心一二线城市推行取消限购限贷条件、降低首付比例、下调存量房贷利率、提高公积金贷款额度、放松落户限制、加大人才引进等政策,加大对改善性住房需求的信贷支持、政策支持等,将二套政策与首套政策拉平;另一方面,借鉴美国租房券项目经验,加大对低收入群体、青年群体租房补贴力度,针对购房力不足的刚需群体,推进保障性住房体系建设,尽快实现房地产市场的信心企稳。

  第二,加大中央财政支持部分城市实施城市更新行动。

  财政部已经会同住房城乡建设部通过竞争性选拔,确定部分基础条件好、积极性高、特色突出的城市开展典型示范,扎实有序推进城市更新行动。其中,中央财政对示范城市给予定额补助。城市更新对基础设施建设投资和房地产投资带动作用均较明显。当前堵点是城市更新项目的盈利模式还不清晰,导致市场资金投入量不足。建议在推进城市更新规划、土地、融资等长期措施的基础上,进一步加大财政补贴,为项目提供可盈利的运行模式。特别是老旧小区改造要与城市功能升级相结合,不再原址原建,而是用货币化模式消化存量住房,原址改作他用,综合处理好增量与存量的关系,

  第三,匹配市场需求建立多层次住房供应体系。

  一是扩大租赁住房高质量供给,加大对房企参与保障性住房、租赁住房建设的政策支持力度,在税收、信贷、土地供应等方面给予政策优惠;二是完善住房保障基础性制度和支持政策,分区域、分领域逐步使租购住房在享受公共服务上具有同等权利,适当提升核心大中城市的公共服务投入,逐步扩大惠及范围;三是盘活存量住房资源,利用已有住房资源,鼓励空置、短租的房屋转为长租房建立住房租赁监管服务平台,有效增加保障性住房供给以及提升租赁住房质量。

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