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  华夏时报

(周梦婷摄影)

  本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者周梦婷北京报道

  在顺利剥离房地产业务后,净利润连亏两年的顺鑫农业,在2024年终于实现扭亏为盈。4月22日晚,顺鑫农业发布年报显示,2024年净利润为2.31亿元。然而,短暂乐观后再遇寒潮,在传统销售旺季的第一季度,顺鑫农业2025年Q1营收净利润双降,其中净利润同比更是降了近四成。

  作为顺鑫农业的核心业务,白酒板块正面临严峻挑战。旗下主力品牌牛栏山的两大“拳头产品”——白牛二和金标陈酿,近年来销量持续走低。而更令市场担忧的是,光瓶酒这一原本由牛栏山主导的赛道,正涌入越来越多的竞争者,消费低迷、品类创新等不断加剧行业内卷。曾经的“国民光瓶酒”代表,如今正遭遇前所未有的增长压力。

  净利润扭亏后又大降

  作为民酒代表牛栏山母公司的顺鑫农业,2024年虽然营收依旧处于下滑态势,但净利润终于不再亏损。根据年报,该报告期顺鑫农业营收为91.26亿元,同比减少13.85%;净利润为2.31亿元,同比增长178.2%;此前2022年、2023年,该公司净利润分别亏损6.73亿元、2.96亿元。

  对于此次扭亏为盈,顺鑫农业在此前业绩预告中表示,主要是白酒业务销售收入、利润保持稳定,对公司业绩贡献较大;同时猪肉业务相比去年同期实现大幅减亏;以及北京顺鑫佳宇房地产开发有限公司已不再纳入公司合并报表。

  当前,顺鑫农业主营业务主要包括白酒和猪肉,其中白酒业务是其支柱产业,2024年白酒业务营收占比为77.15%。而在经历持续两年的下跌后,顺鑫农业白酒业务终于回暖。2024年,该公司白酒业务营收为70.41亿元,同比增长3.19%。2022年、2023年,顺鑫农业白酒业务同比分别下滑20.7%、15.86%,营收从2021年的102.25亿元降至2023年的68.23亿元。

  近两年,整个白酒行业进入深度调整期。在此背景下,原属于春节白酒消费旺季的第四季度、第一季度开始遇冷。比如金徽酒,2024年其营收净利润皆保持了15%以上的增幅,但2025年第一季度,增幅降至6%以下;此外,像酒鬼酒、天佑德酒等企业在去年第四季度也陷入亏损。

  在行业整体低迷状态下,即便顺鑫农业加大销售费用的投入,也没有逃过“一劫”。2025年第一季度,顺鑫农业销售费用为2.94亿元,同比增长34.1%,顺鑫农业表示,主要是由于公司春节期间加大促销力度,促销费用增加所致。但该报告期,其实现营收32.58亿元,同比减少19.69%;净利润为2.82亿元,同比减少37.34%。而在2023年与2024年第一季度,顺鑫农业净利润皆处于增长态势,且第一季度是四个季度中唯一盈利的。

  对于顺鑫农业2025年第一季度业绩下滑,酒水行业研究者欧阳千里对《华夏时报》记者分析认为,“属于情理之中,目前白酒处于酒业新周期,终端门店对于未来酒业回暖信心不足,多数处于观望状态,更愿意销售库存,而非进货,即使面临牛栏山等畅销品,进货也趋于少量多次,而非囤货。面临酒业新周期,顺鑫农业也更愿意和经销商、终端门店进行互动,而非压货,所以表现在业绩上则是下滑。目前来看,牛栏山业绩止跌,于顺鑫农业而言是利好。”

  两大单品继续承压

  但对牛栏山而言,接下来的路并不好走,目前两大核心单品销售量尚处于下滑状态。

  牛栏山旗下主力产品是42度500ml牛栏山陈酿酒(即白牛二),2024年,该产品销售量占顺鑫农业白酒销售量的64.7%,该产品也是牛栏山旗下核心大单品之一。

  但近年来伴随着酒饮市场消费分级等原因,白牛二的销售量正在持续承压。根据年报,2020年至2023年,白牛二销售量同比下滑幅度分别为1.1%、5.19%、23.72%、18.29%,2024年,该产品销售量再次同比下滑2.95%。

  面对白牛二低迷销售现状,牛栏山也早已开始培育新的增长点,2022年推出中档酒金标陈酿,即42.3度500ml牛栏山陈酿白酒(金标),将其作为核心单品进行打造。但在此过程中,金标陈酿表现并不乐观。根据财报,2023年,金标陈酿销售量同比下滑41.86%;2024年,又继续同比下滑19.8%。

  光瓶酒市场从不缺少竞争,在这个赛道上,既有不少新派玩家,比如江小白、光良酒业等;也有名酒“争食”,比如山西汾酒旗下的玻汾,五粮液的尖庄、泸州老窖的黑盖等,与此同时,今年春季糖酒会上,洋河股份、古井贡酒也向光瓶酒发起冲击。

  在光瓶酒竞争愈发激烈的当下,顺鑫农业开始缩减旗下猪肉业务。1月7日,该公司发布公告显示,拟注销旗下两家猪肉业务相关企业;同时,顺鑫农业又对全资子公司北京顺鑫鹏程畜牧科技有限公司进行了减资,该公司注册资本将从4亿元减少至50万元。彼时,顺鑫农业给出的解释是,基于公司战略发展需要,优化资源配置。

  4月22日,本报记者就今年一季度业绩是否符合预期、应对两大单品低迷措施等问题询问了顺鑫农业相关工作人员,但截至发稿并未收到相关回复。

  对于未来发展,顺鑫农业在公告中表示,未来牛栏山酒厂会继续巩固差异化品类优势,利用牛栏山的品牌优势和全国化营销网络优势,通过专业细分,营销切割,发挥市场竞争优势,不断提升“牛栏山”在市场和消费者中的美誉度;同时将继续打造以白牛二和金标为核心的光瓶酒“双轮驱动”战略。

  在欧阳千里看来,于未来而言,牛栏山亟需做出变革。“首先,升级白牛二,毕竟头部酒企均给大单品做了升级。其次,赋能百年陈酿牛栏山(三牛),推动其成为北京特产,增强其在北京餐饮市场的开瓶率。再次,牵手北京区域的二锅头酒企,将二锅头品类从北京升级为中国,进一步扩大二锅头品类的影响力。”

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