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来源:金十数据

  特朗普总统本周声称他“从未计划解雇美联储主席鲍威尔”,指责媒体散布虚假叙事。但白宫内部人士透露,高级官员确实严肃讨论了撤换鲍威尔的法律选项,包括寻找“正当理由”解除其职务的可能性。根据《联邦储备法》,美联储理事只能因“行为不当”被提前解职,这一标准被法院解释为需存在渎职或不当行为。

  这场内部讨论在本周初戛然而止——财政部长斯科特·贝森特(ScottBessent)和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克(HowardLutnick)紧急介入,警告特朗普此举可能引发深远市场动荡和棘手的法律争端。卢特尼克更指出,即使成功撤换鲍威尔,美联储其他成员仍将维持相似货币政策立场,难以实现特朗普期望的降息效果。

  当地时间周二下午,特朗普在椭圆形办公室向记者表示“无意解雇鲍威尔”,缓和了前一天还咄咄逼人的表态。“现在是降息的完美时机。如果他不这样做,会是世界末日吗?不,不会的。”特朗普这番180度大转弯,揭示了其经济团队与市场力量的强大影响力。

  这场风波凸显特朗普面临的核心矛盾:他承诺重塑全球经济秩序,却不得不对市场现实做出妥协。周一与Target、沃尔玛等零售巨头的会面中,高管们直言关税正推高消费价格——次日特朗普即承认145%的对华关税“过高”,承诺将“大幅下调”。

  华尔街普遍认为,强行撤换鲍威尔不仅无法实现降息(目前12人利率委员会无人支持立即降息),更可能适得其反。Access/Macro首席经济学家蒂姆·马赫迪(TimMahedy)警告:“市场反应将如末日降临,痛苦如此迅速剧烈,总统将被迫立即撤回决定,否则面临系统性金融事件。”

  鲍威尔始终坚信美联储独立性不会受损,他在芝加哥演讲中强调这一制度“在华盛顿和国会得到广泛理解与支持”。值得注意的是,特朗普上月刚提拔美联储的鲍曼(MichelleBowman)担任监管副主席——这位由他首任期内任命的官员,恰恰是最直言不讳反对过早降息的声音之一。

  历史教训为这场对峙提供了注脚:1970年代,尼克松总统施压美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(ArthurBurns)在大选前放松货币政策,导致多年高通胀,最终以1980年代初的严重衰退收场。这段经历确立了美联储独立性的非成文传统——央行应被赋予适度自主权,在保持低通胀与健康就业间寻求平衡。

  20世纪90年代,许多其他国家的央行也寻求并获得了政府赋予的相当大“独立性”,以便着眼于经济的长期利益来设定利率。

  据知情人士周三透露,美国司法部(DOJ)正对迪士尼收购流媒体平台FuboTV控股权的交易展开反垄断调查,重点关注该交易是否会导致体育流媒体市场过度集中。

  按照交易条款,迪士尼将持有合并后实体70%股份,FuboTV创始人兼CEODavidGandler继续掌舵。

  迪士尼将整合Hulu直播电视业务与FuboTV平台,打造北美第二大网络付费电视服务(仅次于YouTubeTV)。

  Hulu核心点播流媒体业务不包含在此次交易中。

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