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一个说“提质增效任务十分艰巨”,一个说“要狠抓提质增效工作进度”,相较于年度工作会的“报喜”,各大电力央企在刚刚召开过的一季度工作会上透了底。

01

新能源入市影响企业利润

4月14日,大唐集团在2025年一季度经济运行分析会议指出:“提质增效任务十分艰巨,高质量发展压力持续加大,新形势带来的新挑战不断增多。”“要提高发电综合收益,加强市场营销能力建设,全力降低燃料成本,全面抓好收入增长,多措并举深化提质增效稳增长。”

4月14日,华能集团召开2025年一季度经济活动分析会指出:“要准确把握当前面临的新形势新任务”“要狠抓提质增效工作进度”。

这种紧迫感与2024年亮眼的财报形成鲜明反差。2024年,五大发电旗下“旗舰”上市公司——华能国际、国电电力分别创下了101.35亿元、98.31亿元的好成绩;大唐发电、华电国际、中国电力年度净利润也实现增长。

在此背景下,电力央企为何却在狠抓“新形势”下的“增质提效”工作?事实上,上述上市公司很大一部分装机是火电,业绩增长也是得益于煤价下行。然而,随着新能源入市加快推进,新能源电价由市场形成,增大了电价不确定性。

事实上,不只是大唐、华能,多家电力央企都面临电价下降,新能源利润下滑的风险。

华能国际2024年业绩

净利润增长20.01%,营业收入减少3.48%。

营业收入下降原因:主要由于电价同比下降。2024年,华能国际平均上网结算电价为494.26元/兆瓦时,同比下降2.85%。

大唐发电2024年业绩

平均上网电价下降,风电利润总额下滑。

2024年,大唐发电平均上网电价451.40元/兆瓦时(含税),同比下降约3.22%。

2023至2024年,大唐发电风电板块利润总额从25.56亿元,下降16.86%至21.25亿元。

大唐新能源2024年业绩

营业收入下降1.77%、净利润下降13.63%。

大唐新能源收入减少,主要是由于售电收入减少所致;而售电收入减少,则是由于电力市场化导致电价下降所致。

国电电力2024年业绩

2023-2024年,国电电力在新增新能源装机428.53万千瓦的情况下,风电+光伏板块净利润从22.3亿元下滑至19.23亿元。

三峡能源2024年前三季度业绩

2024年前三季度,三峡能源实现净利润50.93亿元,同比下降6.31%。

02

多举措!“增量驱动”转向“质量优先”

而今,随着2025年初《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促进新能源高质量发展的通知》(发改价格〔2025〕136号)落地,新能源全电量入市导致电价波动风险进一步加剧,传统增长模式遭遇挑战。

新能源全面入市后,电力央企需在政策框架内重构盈利模式。电力央企在规模扩张的同时,更加注重发电综合收益,还需依托电力市场稳定收益预期,同时通过技术创新提升市场竞争力。

一方面,电力央企更加注重新能源企业的盈利能力。

大唐集团

2024年底,大唐集团在召开月度经济活动分析例会时明确提出“要持续攻坚亏损企业治理提效,准确研判重点火电企业和新能源企业经营形势,做好账款回收和财务费用优化管控。”这是大唐集团首次将新能源企业的经营与火电企业并列提及。

华能新能源

华能新能源,是华能集团旗下新能源高质量发展的主力军和排头兵。2025年3月,华能新能源召开市场营销工作会时指出,公司盈利增长方式要从以增量贡献为主,转变为以营销为龙头提升经营质量;营销重心要从“以量为先”转变为“量价统筹”。

另一方面,华能集团与大唐集团也在积极布局开发虚拟电厂、综合能源服务等新业态。

华能集团的虚拟电厂布局采用省公司平台化作战,在浙江、山东、江苏、湖北等地均有项目落地。今年3月,华能雄安总部园区综合能源服务一期示范项目招标,将建设光储直柔系统、光伏系统、微风发电系统等。

早在2021年,大唐集团就在河北南网建设了虚拟电厂平台。2024年,安徽能源营销有限公司虚拟电厂项目获评省级试点示范;2024年9月,大唐山东能源营销有限公司虚拟电厂注册生效。此外,2023年底,中国大唐集团数字科技有限公司成立,将为大唐集团数智化转型提供有力支撑。

今年2月,大唐湖北综合能源服务有限公司成立,经营范围包括供冷服务、储能技术服务、能量回收系统研发、充电桩销售等。

未来,随着绿电交易、碳市场等政策协同推进,电力央企的核心竞争力将不仅限于装机规模,更在于对市场规则的深度理解与灵活应用。电力央企盈利增长也将从“增量驱动”转向“质量优先”,唯有如此,方能在电价波动与装机扩张的双重挑战中突围。

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