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  汇通财经APP讯——据路孚特,在象征重生与希望的复活节期间,俄乌战场却未能迎来真正的宁静。尽管俄罗斯总统普京单方面宣布4月20日实施24小时停火,但双方随即互指对方发动数百次袭击,使这场“一日休战”沦为外交噱头。与此同时,美国对斡旋和平的耐心正迅速消磨,特朗普政府公开警告“几天内无进展就放弃调停”,凸显俄乌冲突陷入更深层的僵局。俄乌冲突的持续以及复活节休战协议的破裂,进一步加剧地缘政治不确定性,而美国可能放弃调停的信号,更让市场对局势缓和的预期降低,避险资金再度涌入黄金市场,现货黄金周一(4月21日)亚市早盘震荡走高逾40美元,一度上涨逾1.3%至3373.98美元/盎司,再度刷新历史记录高点。

  休战变闹剧,双方互控千次袭击

  俄罗斯国防部指控乌军在停火期间违反协议超1000次,包括444次炮击和900余次无人机袭击,造成边境地区平民伤亡。乌克兰总统泽连斯基则反击称,俄军仅在复活节当日就发动67次攻击,并讽刺莫斯科“假装遵守休战”,实则持续炮击民用设施。前线士兵和军事博客的零星反馈显示,部分区域交火频率虽降低,但远未达到停火标准。

  这场“纸面停战”暴露出双方根深蒂固的互不信任。泽连斯基提出延长停火30天的条件——要求俄方停止所有无人机和导弹袭击,否则“证明其只想延续战争”;克里姆林宫则坚称“未收到延长停火命令”,并将冲突归咎于乌方“破坏基础设施”。

  美国斡旋濒临破产,欧洲盟友忧心忡忡

  面对俄乌的持续对抗,美国的态度转向强硬。总统特朗普与国务卿鲁比奥接连表态,要求“几天内看到进展迹象”,否则将退出调停。鲁比奥更直言:“我们不会无休止等待,分歧过大就到此为止。”这一最后通牒反映出白宫对俄罗斯不妥协立场的挫败感,也印证了欧洲外交官此前的担忧——美国对和平协议的期望值已降至冰点。

  然而,俄方仍试图维持对话窗口。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫称“谈判取得部分进展”,但抱怨与华盛顿的接触“异常艰难”。微妙的是,美乌关系也出现裂痕。美方官员对泽连斯基批评特朗普特使“散布俄方叙事”感到不满,认为这种言论进一步阻碍谈判。

  总结:休战幻灭折射和平无解,冲突或长期化

  复活节休战的失败,不仅揭示了俄乌双方缺乏基本共识,更预示着国际调停的局限性。当一日停火都难以落实,特朗普所谓“本周达成协议”的乐观表态更像政治表演。在军事手段无法破局、外交努力濒临破产的背景下,这场冲突正滑向长期消耗战的深渊。而美国可能的撤出,或将迫使欧洲承担更多斡旋压力,但缺乏华盛顿支持的和平方案,恐怕更难撬动僵持的战局。

  俄乌互控对方破坏停火,且美国斡旋濒临失败,表明短期内冲突难以降温。市场避险需求可能再次上升,推动投资者增持黄金作为安全资产。

  若冲突意外升级(如大规模导弹袭击或北约进一步介入),金价可能迅速冲高,重现2022年俄乌开战初期的暴涨行情(当时金价在一周多的时间从1870附近涨至刷新当时的历史高点至2070附近)。另外,俄乌冲突持续可能推高能源和粮食价格,加剧全球通胀压力。若通胀反弹,黄金作为抗通胀资产将更具吸引力。

  (现货黄金日线图,来源:易汇通)北京时间09:05,现货黄金现报3372.04美元/盎司。

  4月21日早盘,国防军工表现活跃,截至发稿,中证军工指数快速拉升涨超1%,成份股方面,国睿科技领涨超8%,应流股份涨超6%,三角防务、华丰科技、航发控制大幅跟涨。热门ETF方面,国防军工ETF512810)场内价格直线冲高1.57%

  消息面上,上海证券交易所近日举办商业航天产业座谈会,邀请了10家在商业火箭和商业卫星领域的领军企业进行深入交流。座谈会上,上交所相关负责人表示,支持商业航天高质量发展是资本市场落实创新驱动发展战略、服务实体经济的重要举措。上交所将利用其大盘蓝筹集聚、硬科技领先、多产品支撑和精准化服务的优势,全面支持商业航天等新质生产力重点领域的发展。

  中信建投证券指出,国防军工板块2024年年底以来,呈现出许多积极信号。主要表现在核心公司发布了多项合同公告,预示着业绩有望企稳。预计到2025年,相关交易额将明显增加,这显示出国防军工板块的基本面已经开始加快回暖。

  在投资策略方面,中信建投证券建议投资者关注三个主要方向:首先是传统国防军工方向,重点关注航发产业、船舶产业以及航空航天产业,这些行业有订单修复预期和业绩支撑;其次是新域新质方向,建议关注低成本精确制导弹药、无人系统及新一代智能化作战底座等行业特点;最后是新技术方面,MEMS器件、增材制造以及陶瓷基复合材料等,这些技术处于行业的快速成长期,并且国产化率较低,市场空间广阔。

  投国防军工,认准【代码里有八一国防军工ETF(512810)。国防军工ETF被动跟踪中证军工指数,集结80家行业龙头公司,其中51家均为国企,覆盖代表新质生产力的低空经济+商业航天+大飞机+军用AI+深海科技”等各细分领域兼顾航发、船舶、航空航天等传统军工装备产业。目前国防军工ETF同时是融资融券标的及互联互通标的。

  数据来源于沪深交易所。风险提示:国防军工ETF被动跟踪中证军工指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布于2013.12.26。以上个股均为标的指数成份股,仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金的风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上投资者,适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资需谨慎。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!

  4月21日金融一线消息,中国人寿集团官网集团领导栏信息显示更新,李祝用职务更新为该集团党委副书记、副董事长、总裁,这意味着,他已获批中国人寿集团副董事长、总裁的任职资格。

  今年2月14日,李祝用调任中国人寿集团党委副书记。李祝用此前任职于中国人保集团,曾任人保集团党委委员、副总裁等职务。

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