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金价又涨疯了!

4月16日,现货黄金再创新高。截至发稿,现货黄金报3272.87美元/盎司,涨幅1.35%。纽约黄金报3288.45美元/盎司,涨幅1.48%。

世界黄金协会最新研究显示,2025年第一季度实物支持的黄金交易所交易基金(ETF)流入量达到226吨,价值210亿美元,创下近三年来最大季度流入量。报告显示,北美上市基金占总流入资金的61%,欧洲市场占需求的22%左右,亚洲市场占全球流入资金的16%。

据央视新闻此前报道,据美国哥伦比亚广播公司报道分析,通胀、利率政策、地缘政治紧张局势和美国国内对经济的担忧构成了一场所谓“完美风暴”,而黄金价格的飙升正是这场“风暴”的结果。作为全球储备货币,美元信用与美国经济紧密相关。业内人士分析,黄金疯涨的背后,其实意味着美元的避险能力在逐步下降。

特朗普“不确定性”侵蚀美元信用

华尔街巨头争相唱多黄金

今年以来,特朗普关税政策朝令夕改,还遭到多国批评、反制。与此同时,美国政府实施裁员计划,解雇了上万名联邦工作人员,加剧了市场对经济增长前景的担忧。美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯在接受采访时表示,美国总统特朗普反复无常的政策行动和言论正在侵蚀全球市场对美元的信任,金价的大幅上涨正是这种不确定性的体现。

当地时间4月15日,美国银行发布的调查报告显示,在过去两个月内,全球投资者创纪录地大幅减持美国股票。在美国银行对基金经理进行的4月月度调查中,受访的基金经理的美股净仓位减少了36%。有49%的基金经理表示,“做多黄金”目前是最拥挤的交易策略,结束了连续24个月的“做多美股科技七巨头”的策略。61%的基金经理预期美元将在未来12个月内贬值,这是2006年5月以来的最高水平。

华尔街巨头们纷纷大幅上调黄金的价格展望。花旗研究金价可能在年底前攀升至3500美元。“在我们看来,金价将在年底前触及3500美元/盎司,因担心美国硬着陆/滞胀,对冲/投资需求大幅增加,这将支撑金价。”花旗称。

摩根大通的分析师亦关注4000美元的价格是否有可能实现。该行的研究人员指出,黄金价格从2500美元涨至3000美元仅用了210天,远快于此前平均超过1700天的500美元涨幅。摩根大通的分析师在周三的客户报告中问道:“考虑到每个1000美元阶段所用时间约为前一阶段的三分之二,以及收益递减规律和投资者对整数的偏好,4000美元的关口是否近在咫尺?”

瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发布最新机构观点,预计未来12个月黄金价格或达3500美元/盎司。瑞银表示,除了避险需求和投机者的参与外,黄金配置需求近期也发生许多结构性转变。例如,各国央行系统性地提高黄金在外汇储备中的份额,这些结构性转变有力地支持了黄金需求。该机构认为,长期来看,从多元化的角度而言,在美元平衡投资组合中,配置5%的黄金是最佳选择。

高盛发布的最新报告显示,该机构将2025年黄金目标价从此前的每盎司3300美元上调至3700美元,上调幅度高达12%,也是该机构年内最激进的一次上调动作。高盛还表示,在极端情况下,金价可能突破4200美元/盎司。

摩根士丹利分析师指出,各国央行增加黄金储备和投资者买入黄金是推升国际金价的两大主要因素,在美联储降息背景下,国际金价受到更多有利因素支持。目前实物需求稳定,预计资金流入ETF可能刚刚开始,在这种情况下,今年国际金价可能升至3300~3400美元/盎司。

国内不少民众扎堆卖金变现

上海出现黄金“ATM”,最快30分钟打钱

由于黄金回收价格屡创新高,不少民众扎堆卖金变现。

据央视财经近日报道,在深圳水贝一家黄金卖场,很多零售店铺的柜台前都围满了前来咨询的消费者。不少商家表示,人流量虽然不减,但其实生意并不好做,“可能现在大家都会很犹豫,观望情绪浓厚,不敢下手。”与此同时,不少黄金回收企业的业务量出现大幅增长。在深圳一家黄金回收企业的业务大厅,电子屏幕上的价格快速变动,前来出手金饰、金条的客户排队等待。

据大象新闻4月15日报道,郑州某黄金回收店负责人告诉记者,近期黄金回收量增长了30%-40%。

除了去金店,上海出现了另一种选择——“ATM机”。据悉,这是金雅福自主研发的智慧金店。该设备有着自助下单、自动检测、快速回款的全新黄金回收模式,以及自助购买、即时取货的一站式黄金珠宝自助购买模式。首台出现在位于普陀区的商场环球港内。

记者4月14日中午到达时,现场已经排起了长队。市民吴女士表示,自己在环球港一开门时就进来了。“我带了手链、戒指和挂件。我觉得它们款式比较旧,现在金价那么高,就想回收,等到金价低的时候再买好看的。”吴女士说道。被问起使用体验时,她坦言,和去金店时有很多手续相比,这台机器手续简单,而且有一块屏幕可以全程看着操作过程,让她很放心,她会向周围的朋友推荐。

金雅福智慧金店上海区域运营经理谢成成表示,“公正透明”正是他们的承诺,回收全程都不会扣金。据他介绍,当用户拿着黄金首饰来回收时,工作人员会先检测它们的足金数据、钢印以及发票等信息。如果符合标准,这些首饰就可以进入机器进行初检与估价。一旦用户同意回收,可以点击机器屏幕上的“确定”,并输入身份证号和银行卡号。接着,机器会对首饰进行熔炼,并进行二次检测。最终的回收价格会以这个结果以及上海黄金交易所实时金价来计算,再扣除每克18元的服务费,最快30分钟就能汇款给用户。

“整个客流情况是非常火爆的,一天的访问量有几十个。我们后续可能会进行点位扩充,让用户可以提前和我们预约,给大家更充足的时间。”谢成成说道。

专家:黄金或将开启新一轮上涨趋势

有分析师提示投资者应保持警惕

国内机构方面,多位基金经理也表达了对黄金长期配置价值的看好。

中信保诚全球商品主题基金经理顾凡丁认为,不论从关税事件可能对经济造成的滞胀风险,还是美国扰乱国际秩序或加深美元信用担忧,黄金资产均有可能较好地对冲此类风险。在本轮资本市场恐慌抛售中,国际金价一度回调,并不从根本上改变他对黄金中长期配置价值的判断,当金融流动性冲击平复,黄金资产或迎来价值修复机会。

永赢黄金股ETF基金经理刘庭宇认为,近期美国国债收益率快速上行,一度达到4.51%的高位,疑似遭到大规模抛售。美债利率大幅上行导致国债利息支出显著增长、极端情况下甚至可能会面临违约风险,美债在流动性冲击下避险功能逐渐丧失,大量资金或从美债流出并流入黄金和现金,黄金作为避险资产的地位进一步强化,后续或有更多机构用黄金替代一部分美债,央行购金趋势也进一步强化,叠加美股大涨后流动性危机解除,黄金或将开启新一轮上涨趋势。

此外,对于黄金股的投资,刘庭宇认为,近期美国关税政策引发全球避险情绪快速升温,黄金在经历流动性冲击后迅速回到中长期上涨通道,往后看,黄金股业绩持续高增确定性较强:一方面,随着金价中枢持续上移、海外通胀降温带来开采成本增长放缓、金矿公司持续扩产,公司业绩有望持续高增;另一方面,黄金珠宝商正在迎来业绩拐点和产品高端化的趋势变革,同样具备较好的成长空间。刘庭宇认为,在当前风险偏好下行的市场风格下,黄金股有望吸引追求业绩确定性的配置型资金,黄金股后续或迎来系统性估值提升。

紫金天风期货贵金属研究员刘诗瑶表示,展望二季度,宏观经济环境对黄金市场颇为有利,继续维持对黄金市场的积极观点。

不过,也有分析师提示投资者应保持警惕。法兴银行高级大宗商品策略师大卫·威尔逊表示,“黄金市场将消化或正常化。如果贸易紧张局势没有持续升级,金价将难以在下半年保持进一步的上行势头。”

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