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来源:国际金融报

4月15日晚间,正丹股份(维权)(300641.SZ)2024年年报正式出炉。报告期内,正丹股份实现营业收入34.8亿元,同比增长126.31%;归母净利润11.9亿元,同比增长11949.39%。

在目前已披露去年业绩的A股上市公司中,正丹股份暂列归母净利润同比涨幅第一位。其盈利暴增背后,是公司核心产品偏苯三酸酐(TMA)、偏苯三酸三辛酯(TOTM)共同发力的结果。

但伴随TMA价格回落,正丹股份业绩可持续性也面临挑战。

4月16日,正丹股份股价尾盘下跌。截至收盘,正丹股份报收28.51元/股,跌幅0.63%,总市值151.87亿元。

TMA、TOTM齐发力

正丹股份主要围绕芳烃综合利用产业链,研发、生产和销售特种精细化学品和高端环保新材料,目前主要产品包括TMA、TOTM、乙烯基甲苯(VT)及均四甲苯等。

据悉,TMA是一种重要的精细化工产品改性和添加的中间体,被广泛应用于环保增塑剂、高端粉末涂料、高级绝缘材料及高温固化剂等。TMA的主要应用产品之一是TOTM,可作为无毒环保型增塑剂用于制造聚氯乙烯(PVC)制品,被广泛应用于建筑工程、汽车制造、医疗、电线电缆等领域。

因TMA行情走俏,正丹股份去年迎来盈利大增。

此前,TMA行业产能集中于美国英力士(7万吨/年)、意大利柏林(3万吨/年)、正丹股份(8.5万吨/年)、百川股份(4万吨/年)、泰达新材(3万吨/年)五家企业。

2024年4月以来,英力士停产消息令供给端收紧,TMA价格出现大幅上涨。

反映到业绩上,正丹股份去年酸酐及酯类产品收入为27.9亿元,占营业收入的80.16%,同比增长155.11%;毛利率为53.14%,而上年同期为6.63%。

正丹股份表示,由于美国TMA生产厂家宣布永久性地关闭生产线,海外市场对中国TMA需求增长显著,公司主要产品TMA销售数量及销售单价均较上年同期有较大增幅,同时TOTM产品销售数量及销售单价也较上年同期有一定增幅,公司营业收入同比大幅增长。

随着公司TMA和TOTM产能利用率的显著提升,规模效应逐渐显现,边际成本明显下降,产品盈利能力提升,使得归母净利润大幅增长。

值得注意的是,正丹股份海外市场营收出现大幅上涨,且毛利率显著高于国内市场。2024年,正丹股份国外销售的营业收入为11.54亿元,占据总营收的33.15%,较上年同期增加212.86%;国外销售毛利率为54.79%,国内销售毛利率为34.9%。

近期,有投资者就关税政策变化影响向正丹股份提问,公司于4月16日最新回应称,公司出口到美国口岸的业务占整体营业收入比重不大,目前,美国“对等关税”政策尚在不断变化中,存在不确定性。公司将密切关注相关关税政策变化并积极应对,及时调整经营策略,保障公司业务的稳定发展;同时,公司将积极推进全球化战略,加快建设海外生产基地。

记者注意到,去年9月,正丹股份已宣布,将与持股5%以上股东华杏投资(镇江)有限公司共同在新加坡新设控股子公司,并在马来西亚投资建设生产基地,初步规划建设年产5万吨TMA项目以及年产2万吨新材料特种单体项目,投资金额不超过8000万美元。

冲刺15万吨产能

为了进一步扩张产能及巩固竞争地位,正丹股份于去年6月披露年产6.5万吨偏苯三酸酐绿色化升级改造项目的建设计划,项目建设总工期预计24个月。

据悉,公司产品去年整体量价齐升,供不应求,目前产能已达到饱和状态。2024年年报显示,正丹股份偏苯三酸酐当前设计产能为8.5万吨/年,产能利用率已达98.94%。若上述项目投产,公司将拥有15万吨/年的TMA产能。

与此同时,其他企业也披露了扩产计划。去年5月,常青科技披露百亿投资计划,其中涉及建设8万吨/年TMA产能。

正丹股份表示,国内TMA生产企业形成了正丹股份等少数几家企业为主导的竞争格局,主要竞争对手亦有扩建产能计划。围绕化工产业的周期性发展规律,周期性的主动“补库存”是企业遵循行业发展规律做出的理性选择。

目前,正丹股份上述TMA绿色化升级改造项目正在向镇江新区行政审批局申请环评批复。

不过,在经历去年的暴涨后,TMA最新行情已有所回落。

百川盈孚在4月14日消息中指出,华东地区TMA市场大幅下跌。据了解,当日国内市场报价参考4万元/吨至4.2万元/吨左右。场内买盘气氛延续清淡,下游刚需表现孱弱对原料采购消化有限,工厂报盘多实单可谈,场内部分让利情况犹存,预计短线TMA市场区间波动为主。

国金证券则曾在研报中表示,TMA价格的趋稳和新产能的公告会使股价失去上涨的核心驱动力。

反映到二级市场上,去年因TMA概念高涨,正丹股份曾成为2024年年内首只10倍股,全年股价涨幅高达330%。目前,相较于去年6月的盘中高点36.25元/股,正丹股份最新股价已出现回落。

记者程梓欣

文字编辑王丽颖

版面编辑孙霄

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