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重生之祝英台遇到马文才问鹿 - 牌技背后的逻辑与思考 - 骤变网络
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重生之祝英台遇到马文才问鹿 - 牌技背后的逻辑与思考

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  上周美元大幅下跌后,外汇交易员正改变押注美元走弱的期权策略。野村证券和渣打银行称,交易员通过在日元和欧元兑美元的期权中加入障碍水平,以降低买入看涨期权成本。他们的意图是从这些货币的逐步升值中获利,若在特定时间内达到这些障碍水平,期权就会失效。

  野村证券驻伦敦的外汇期权交易员阿迪思·拉曼(AadithRaman)表示:“客户仍在关注欧元兑美元和美元兑日元这两个货币对中美元下跌的交易机会,但现在他们采用了杠杆结构”,这表明他们预期“从现在起美元将更缓慢地走跌”。

  交易员正在使用诸如反向敲出期权(reverseknock-outs)和提前敲出期权(earlyknock-outs)等策略。如果在期权合约规定的时间段内触及障碍水平,这些期权就会不复存在,即被“敲出”。这些期权的买家希望欧元和日元逐步升值,这样就不会触及障碍水平。

  渣打银行驻新加坡的全球外汇期权主管萨乌拉布·坦登(SaurabhTandon)称:“我们看到市场对欧元兑美元货币对的上行交易有浓厚兴趣”,“大多数需求集中在一到三个月期限”。

  他说,欧洲数字看涨期权是最受欢迎的交易之一,如果货币对在到期时达到或高于预定的执行价格,该期权将提供固定收益,但市场也出现了对“反向敲出期权和提前敲出期权等杠杆交易”的需求。

  芝加哥商业交易所集团(ChicagoMercantileExchangeGroup)期权中央限价订单簿的数据显示,周二,欧元看涨期权(如果欧元兑美元升值,该期权价值将增加)的交易量是看跌期权的两倍。这些押注表明,许多交易员认为,随着特朗普政府不断更新其关税政策,以及多国采取报复措施,美元的跌势还将持续。

  本周对日元和欧元的看涨押注发生在许多投资者大量买入看跌美元的期权之后。4月9日,美元开始暴跌,原因是市场担心不断恶化的全球贸易战可能会阻碍美国经济增长。彭博美元指数上周下跌了2.4%,为2022年以来的最大跌幅。随着市场试图企稳,交易量较上周有所下降,但交易方向仍倾向于美元走弱。

  数据显示,在截至4月8日的一周内,杠杆基金持有日元的多头头寸为2021年1月以来最高。

  花旗集团驻新加坡的亚太外汇交易主管内森·斯瓦米(NathanSwami)表示:“上周,我们看到市场对欧元、日元和澳元等G10货币对一到三个月期限的期权需求旺盛,这将隐含波动率推升至高位。很多这种波动率的买入是以美元看跌期权的形式进行的。”

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