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陶波武佳雄曹鸿生

公司公布2024年年报,2024年公司实现营收37.80亿元,同比-12.61%,实现归母净利润4.74亿元,同比+11.46%;实现扣非后归母净利润4.33亿元,同比+17.70%。

支撑评级的要点

坚定“新两海”战略成效初显,公司经营质量显著提升。2023年以来,公司坚定实施“新两海”战略,进一步降低盈利能力差、回款风险大的国内业务规模,2024年公司实现营收37.80亿元,同比减少12.61%,其中海外累计发货11万吨,实现收入17.33亿元,占比重45.58%。同时,受益于出口海工产品高附加值带来的高盈利,实现归母净利润4.74亿元,同比提升11.46%;公司毛利率、净利率连续三年持续提升,2024年实现毛利率29.83%,同比提升6.59pct,实现净利率12.54%,同比提升2.71pct。此外,由于海外客户回款优质,以及公司对国内业务加强回款管控,截至2024年底,公司经营性现金流量净额10.83亿元,相较上年净增加 2.75亿元,公司经营质量得到显著提升。

欧洲海风有望进入快速发展期,公司或将充分受益。根据WindEurope的统计显示,2020-2024年欧洲海上风电核准量持续攀升,从2020年的759MW增长至 2024年的19.9GW,另外根据4Coffshore的预测,2025-2027年欧洲海风拍卖量将持续保持较高水平,为未来的装机奠定了坚实的基础。根据全球风能理事会的预测,欧洲海风将自2025年开始快速起量。目前,公司已经全面进入欧洲海风市场,成功通过绝大多数欧洲头部业主的合格供应商体系认证,并作为“一供”或“主供”形成实质性业务合作,覆盖欧洲海风市场头部前五大业主,是亚太区唯一实现海工产品交付欧洲市场的供应商。公司在手订单充足,未来随着欧洲海风进入快速发展阶段,公司有望凭借其在欧洲的客户资源、质量、成本等优势充分受益。

积极完善产能布局,寻求“第三增长曲线”未来成长可期。在产能布局上,公司部署国内蓬莱、唐山、盘锦出口海工基地的同时,积极布局欧洲、东南亚等海外基地,规划设计全球产能300万吨以上。以欧洲为基础构建全球战略营销体系,在欧洲、日韩等地设置多个常设驻外机构,建立覆盖全球海风主要开发地域的营销服务网络。同时,在夯实和强化欧洲市场优势的基础上,公司正在积极布局深远海浮式风电基础和全球物流体系的“第三增长曲线”,与国际头部浮式基础解决方案提供商合作,并建立专门的全球浮式业务中心,积极研发下一代浮式基础产品;公司将依托于盘锦新基地,建设自有的船舶制造基地,打造自有专业运输船队,搭建全球物流体系,成为打通生产、运输的一站式产品解决方案提供商。

评级面临的主要风险

风电装机不及预期;原材料价格波动的风险;产能扩张不及预期;国际贸易政策的风险。

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