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  华尔街见闻

  巴克莱认为,尽管特朗普撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性仍属低概率事件,但相关压力和噪音仍可能持续到鲍威尔任期结束,一旦市场将未来的宽松政策解读为受到特朗普政府干预的结果,美元的下行风险将加剧。

  特朗普连日公开抨击美联储主席鲍威尔,无论鲍威尔是否屈服,对美元都是坏消息。

  周一,美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上再次发帖,抨击鲍威尔是“太迟先生”和“大输家”,暗示如果美联储不尽快降息,经济可能放缓。这已是特朗普连续第三天在欧洲央行降息后公开呼吁美联储跟进。

  特朗普炮轰下,隔夜美元暴跌至去年10月份以来的低点,资金加速流向瑞郎、日元和黄金等避险资产。

  前高盛首席外汇分析师RobinBrooks认为这可能是2018年底美联储政策转向的重演,美联储可能再次屈服于政治压力而加速降息。Brooks在社交媒体上指出:

  如果按照2018年这一剧本,当美联储开始降息后,美元在经历初期下跌后,可能会出现反弹。然而巴克莱则警告,如果鲍威尔屈服于政治压力,美元将面临更严重贬值风险。

  鲍威尔屈服,美元崩?

  在最新研究报告中,巴克莱外汇策略团队警告,如果美联储独立性受到质疑,美元风险“大到不容忽视”。

  巴克莱研究团队认为,特朗普政府的政策压力已经使美元处于特别脆弱的状态。报告指出:“市场已经开始考虑去美元化、储备减少以及从美国资产超配状态撤资的可能性。”

  在这种情况下,对美联储的干扰将进一步对美元造成下行压力。

  巴克莱的ThemistoklisFiotakis等分析师警告:“美联储独立性面临风险,对于当代全球金融架构中最重要的金融机构来说,这是一个带来非常显著尾部风险的事件,不仅对美元,也对全球金融系统构成威胁。”

  巴克莱表示,尽管特朗普撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性仍属低概率事件,但美联储独立性受损的风险已成为美元走势中最值得关注的尾部风险,相关压力和噪音仍可能持续到鲍威尔任期结束,在这种环境下,美元实际上没有理由交易在远高于公平价值的水平。

  巴克莱警告,一旦市场将未来的宽松政策解读为受到特朗普政府干预的结果,美元的下行风险将加剧。

  然而,值得注意的是,巴克莱也承认,央行信誉丧失导致金融条件收紧的历史案例也很多,巴西就是最近的例子,该国在全球宽松背景下反而加息。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  古茗(01364)盘中涨超12%,截至发稿,股价上涨10.17%,现报19.50港元,成交额5761.70万港元。

  4月18日,古茗推出与《崩坏:星穹铁道》的联名活动,据报道,联名活动套餐开售即售罄,小程序也因瞬时流量过大崩溃。瑞银此前研报指出,预测古茗通过针对性地扩张门店网络及推出新产品,可提升盈利能力,并推动2025至2027年间收入年均复合增长率达到19%。中金预计公司独特的区域加密及强供应链能力下未来持续展店将带来高业绩成长。

  海通国际发布研报称,预计古茗2025-27年收入各108.4/128.4/144.2亿元,经调净利各18.8/21.9/23.8亿元。参考可比公司,基于古茗相对高成长性和行业领先地位,以及门店快速拓展带来的规模效应、盈利改善,给予古茗2025年25XPE,对应合理目标市值506亿港元,合理目标价为24.2港元(对应汇率为HKD/CNY=0.93),首次覆盖给予优大于市评级。

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  • 五一假期热门旅游目的地揭晓 1.2万人次志愿者服务西双版纳泼水节 鸿蒙智行 智界品牌之夜 曝iQOO大量旗舰级配置将下放 台积电美股盘前涨超4%