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广西壮族自治区

  周四,华尔街的“抛售美国资产”交易出现动摇,美国股市在贸易紧张局势缓解引发的三日连涨中大幅上扬。不过,特朗普政府发出的矛盾信息抑制了投资者的热情,也让市场对任何潜在交易的持久性感到紧张不安。

  本周早些时候,投资者纷纷抛售美国股票和传统避险资产,10年期美国国债收益率飙升至4.4%以上,美元跌至2022年以来的最低水平。

  这种不同寻常的举动,即同时抛售风险资产和波动性对冲资产,被视为一种罕见的市场错位,策略师们将其称为声名狼藉的“抛售美国资产”交易。但随着投资者重新买入美国债券和美元,这些趋势本周开始出现逆转。

  周三,10年期国债收益率降至4.3%左右,美元也接近具有心理重要意义的100关口。与此同时,黄金在近几天创下多项纪录后,于周三回落至每盎司3290美元左右。此前,投资者纷纷涌入以非美元计价的全球公认价值储存资产,而黄金价格的回落进一步表明“抛售美国资产”交易正在降温。

  但在周四的交易中,黄金价格再次飙升至每盎司3340美元左右,与此同时美元也失去了上涨动力。与这一趋势相悖的是10年期美国国债收益率,该收益率在周三晚些时候曾反弹上升,但在周四又回落至4.3%左右的水平。

  除了看起来较为有利的贸易发展动态之外,特朗普决定放弃罢免美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔的尝试,这也有助于缓解投资者的担忧。

  自本月早些时候总统宣布“解放日”以来,投资者一直在应对一个动荡的市场,多种经济冲击加剧了市场的波动,这些冲击包括关裞、经济增长放缓以及地缘政治紧张局势升级。

  但总统已经暗示他一直在关注外界的声音,这使得一些策略师认为,他现在可能比以往更关注市场对其政策的反应。此前,特朗普政府曾声称,在近期的股市抛售期间,他们并未关注股市动态。

  特鲁斯金融公司(Truist)联席首席投资官兼首席市场策略师基思・勒纳对雅虎财经表示:“人们更加关注市场波动性,尤其是10年期国债收益率,而不仅仅是股市。我认为,特朗普对于10年期国债收益率升至多高或跌至多低会感到满意,心里也是有个底线的。”

  “持续努力”以重建市场稳定

  通常情况下,当股票和债券同向波动时,是因为通胀飙升推动美元走高。然而,这一次,信心危机似乎扰乱了这种惯常的市场动态。

  总统团队的关键成员,包括财政部长斯科特・贝森特,都试图缓解投资者的担忧。

  贝森特在周三的一次演讲中谈到关裞问题时表示:“我想明确一点,‘美国优先’并不意味着美国孤立。相反,这是呼吁贸易伙伴之间进行更深入的合作和相互尊重。”

  贝森特强调了在近期市场波动中维持美元稳定的重要性,他说:“在我的有生之年,美元仍将是世界储备货币。”

  荷兰国际集团(ING)的外汇策略师弗朗西斯科・佩索莱告诉雅虎财经,白宫最初预计关裞会使美元走强,这样可以保护美国消费者免受物价上涨的影响。然而,信心下降却引发了美元抛售。

  佩索莱表示,这很可能“不是贝森特希望看到的情况”。“我认为,目前正在持续努力,至少要在美国首次受到通胀冲击的这段时间内,重建美元的一定稳定性。”

  随着投资者继续消化瞬息万变的新闻头条,一些策略师警告称,未来市场可能还会出现更多波动。

  泰玛蒂卡研究公司(TematicaResearch)首席投资官克里斯・弗萨奇周三表示:“我认为这是一次‘松口气’式的反弹。人们非常担心(关裞)带来的影响,担心经济受到的影响,以及未来几周我们将看到的盈利预期受到的影响。所以对我来说,这更像是一次‘松口气’式的反弹。”

  但他也警告说:“影响仍然会存在。我认为我们必须耐心等待,看看这新一轮潜在关裞的具体走向。我们还得拭目以待。”

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