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  本报记者 刘 琪

  今年以来,美元指数可谓“跌跌不休”,近期其下跌的速度与幅度更是呈现出显著的扩大趋势。

  Wind资讯数据显示,截至4月22日,年内美元指数跌幅超9%。4月份以来,短短数周跌幅已超5.5%。其中在4月21日,美元指数盘中接连破99、98两个关口,最低下探至97.9137,创2022年4月份以来新低。4月22日,截至18时,美元指数当日在98.0083至98.5642之间波动。

  近期美元的持续走弱,背后是多重复杂因素的交织影响。中国银行研究院主管王有鑫在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,从经济基本面看,当前,美国经济下行压力加大,经济数据表现疲软,对美元指数走势形成拖累。从美联储政策预期及独立性角度看,美国经济衰退风险加大使得美联储降息节奏加快的预期升温。与此同时,市场对美联储政策独立性的担忧加重。此外,近期美国金融市场波动持续加剧,美债和美股面临的抛售压力加大,美元资产对外资的吸引力下降,跨境资本流入放缓,也对美元走势形成抑制。

  在美元持续走弱的背景下,黄金市场却呈现出一片繁荣景象,价格不断攀升。Wind资讯数据显示,4月9日以来,国际金价快速上行。4月22日,现货黄金(伦敦金现,下同)、COMEX黄金期货盘中双双突破3500美元/盎司。截至当日18时,现货黄金、COMEX黄金期货盘中最高分别达3500.12美元/盎司、3509.9美元/盎司,均刷新历史新高。

  王有鑫分析,近期黄金价格上涨一方面受美元贬值驱动。美元指数走势通常与黄金价格负相关,美元快速走弱对黄金价格形成支撑。另一方面,黄金价格上涨还受避险需求与央行购金等因素影响。受全球贸易政策不确定性加剧等因素影响,全球避险情绪持续升温,黄金作为主要的避险资产,在美元走弱背景下获得更多避险资金青睐。此外,随着黄金价格快速走高,多家国际投行上调对黄金价格的预测,投机性资金快速流入黄金市场。

  展望美元后续走势,东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对《证券日报》记者表示,考虑到美国经济衰退、叠加资金外流,美元的弱势或仍将延续。至于金价,预计短期内仍将保持震荡上行态势。资金的避险需求将对黄金形成有力支撑,黄金本身的抗通胀属性亦将助推其价格上行。此外,在美国高额债务,以及逆全球化对美元资产安全性的冲击背景下,全球央行配置黄金意愿仍较强,这也将对金价形成支撑。

  王有鑫认为,目前来看,美元已进入下行通道,在连续跌破多个整数点位后,短期受美国经济下行、政策不确定性风险加剧、跨境资金流出和非美货币升值等因素影响,可能继续承压。从中长期看,美国财政赤字攀升、美债信任危机持续发酵、美国经济增长潜力下降将持续对美元走势形成抑制。

  新华财经纽约4月22日电(记者刘亚南)由于市场对贸易冲突和美联储独立性威胁的担忧得到缓解,22日美元兑除加元以外的一揽子货币走高,美元指数在隔夜市场走高,当日上午强势盘整,午后涨幅扩大,尾盘时美元指数显著上涨。

  衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.56%,在汇市尾市收于98.918。

  外汇经纪商Monex美国公司在22日早间表示,不同市场主要的担忧是如果美联储主席鲍威尔在某种形式上被革职可能出现的金融系统动荡。

  白宫希望对货币政策有更多影响力并在汇率上持不同观点。投资者和交易者担忧干预美联储独立性将会让金融环境非常不稳定,并易于受到政治利空的影响。

  Monex美国公司说,欧元兑美元汇率在当日早间从2021年11月以来的高点回落。随着欧洲市场结束假期,外汇市场流动性改善。

  财经网站ForexLive首席外汇分析师亚当•巴顿(AdamButton)表示,开除美联储主席鲍威尔对美元和美国资本市场的整体信心将是灾难性的。市场希望冷静占上风。

  荷兰国际集团外汇策略师弗朗切斯科·佩索莱(FrancescoPesole)表示,当前,最糟糕的情形是美联储主席鲍威尔屈服并进行一次紧急降息。不过,这依然是一个低概率事件。

  外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师JerryChen表示,在美元遭到信任危机和市场避险情绪蔓延的情况下,作为避险货币的日元持续走强,日本央行的升值压力也是其走强因素之一。

  JerryChen认为,对于美元兑日元汇价来说,阻力最小的方向是延续下行,在回到144.50上方或出现明显底部背离信号之前继续保持看空,下方关注前低139.60以及137.20等位置。

  截至纽约汇市尾市,1欧元兑换1.1426美元,低于前一交易日的1.1507美元;1英镑兑换1.3336美元,低于前一交易日的1.3381美元。

  1美元兑换141.50日元,高于前一交易日的140.83日元;1美元兑换0.8189瑞士法郎,高于前一交易日的0.8070瑞士法郎;1美元兑换1.3815加元,低于前一交易日的1.3818加元;1美元兑换9.5556瑞典克朗,高于前一交易日的9.5457瑞典克朗。

  编辑:王春霞

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  东原仁知服务(02352)发布公告,刘兴已于2025年4月22日辞任公司联席公司秘书,因其被调任为集团于华中及华东地区的总经理。

  罗婧获委任为公司公司秘书,自2025年4月22日起生效。

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