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舌头一路向下探索找到花朵:潮流趋势与社交媒体的影响

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  在全党开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育,是今年党建工作的重点任务。学习教育启动以来,中管金融机构聚焦主题、注重实效,一体推进学查改,引导广大党员干部锲而不舍落实好中央八项规定精神,以新作风展现担当作为,为推动金融高质量发展凝聚更大力量。

  成立专班、制定实施方案、明确“时间表”……连日来,中管金融机构将开展学习教育作为重大政治任务,深入学习贯彻习近平总书记重要讲话和重要指示精神,加强统筹谋划和组织领导,第一时间研究部署,力求充分落实《关于在全党开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育的通知》要求。

  中国工商银行党委多次召开党委会、党建工作领导小组会议,部署推进学习教育,推动全行2.9万个基层党组织不等不靠,同步启动。工行成立学习教育工作专班,形成“1+2+N”工作体系,包括制定全行学习教育实施方案,印发关于做好学习教育集中学习、查摆问题的通知等。此次学习教育恰逢工行深入推进中央巡视整改,工行将学习教育与全行开展的“四风”和违反中央八项规定精神问题专项治理有效衔接,加大叠加效应和联动效果。

  周一,抛售美国资产的交易势头增强,原因是人们担心唐纳德・特朗普总统会兑现其解雇美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔的威胁,并实施可能导致经济衰退的政策。

  美元、美国股指期货和美国国债价格下跌,在假期后交易量低于正常水平的交易中,30年期国债收益率一度上涨多达10个基点。投资者正在应对鲍威尔被解雇的风险(白宫上周表示正在评估这一情况),以及他的政策对全球最大经济体的影响。

  蒙特利尔银行资本市场美国利率策略主管伊恩・林根表示:“在政府已经给经济前景带来越来越高不确定性的当下,任何解雇鲍威尔的企图都将加大美国资产面临的下行压力。”

  虽然法律学者表示总统不能轻易解雇美联储主席,而且鲍威尔也表示如果特朗普要求他辞职,他不会照做,但这种猜测还是给美国资产带来了新的打击。华盛顿激进的贸易关裞政策已经引发了人们对经济衰退的担忧,并加剧了对美国国债作为首选避险资产地位的质疑。

  各种风险交织在一起,引发了人们对经济增长和通胀路径的担忧,以及美联储如何在两者间取得平衡的疑问。尽管交易员预计今年美国至少会有三次降息,但前纽约联邦储备银行行长比尔・达德利在彭博社的一篇评论专栏文章中写道,政策制定者的行动速度可能会比预期的要慢。

  彭博美元现货指数周一下跌幅度一度达到1%,降至2023年末以来的最低水平,随后跌幅略有收窄。日元升值至去年9月以来的水平,而欧元则上涨至三年多来的最高水平。

  欧元目前的交易价格约为1欧元兑1.15美元,接近策略师们最乐观的年终预测。彭博社的数据显示,日元汇率约为1美元兑140.50日元,强于143日元的年终目标中值。

  Monex外汇交易员海伦・吉文表示:“特朗普关于可能解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的想法,即便这些想法不会成为现实,在国际社会的眼中,也对美国央行的独立性构成了重大威胁,进而威胁到美元作为避险货币的地位。”

  她还说:“如果美国陷入经济衰退,而央行却无法或不能独立采取行动,那么经济衰退有可能会加剧,这就更让市场感到担忧了。”

  在有报道称特朗普正在考虑解雇鲍威尔之后,美国国家经济委员会主任凯文・哈塞特上周五表示特朗普正在研究此事,此后抛售压力进一步加剧。

  据熟悉交易情况的交易员称,在哈塞特发表上述言论后,周一是几家对冲基金带头抛售美元。由于未获授权公开发言,这些交易员要求不具名。

  商品期货交易委员会的综合数据显示,对冲基金目前对美元的看涨程度为去年10月以来最低。虽然有关鲍威尔的新闻头条无疑对市场情绪没有帮助,但也有人表示,不断恶化的全球贸易战可能仍将是美元交易的主导因素。

  芝加哥FHN金融公司的宏观策略师威尔・康佩诺勒表示:“央行的独立性非常宝贵,这不是一件可以想当然的事情,而且一旦失去就很难再恢复。”特朗普“对鲍威尔的威胁无助于提升外国投资者对美国资产的信心,但我仍然认为关裞方面的最新动态才是主要驱动因素。”

  周一的下跌并不局限于美元。美国股指期货也出现下跌,与此同时,美国国债收益率曲线变陡,2年期国债收益率小幅走低,而30年期国债收益率大幅上涨。

  投资者持有30年期美国国债而非2年期国债所要求的额外收益率已经连续九周上升,自1992年彭博社开始整理相关数据以来,这种情况只出现过一次。

  与此同时,随着特朗普的贸易战削弱了美国经济增长和企业盈利的前景,华尔街股票策略师发出的警告也越来越多。

  花旗集团的策略师上周下调了对美国股市的预期,称“美国例外论”的裂痕将持续存在。最近几天,他们和美国银行、贝莱德等机构一样,对美国股市持不乐观态度。

  麦格理集团驻新加坡的策略师加雷思・贝里表示:“最近引发美元抛售的因素可能是鲍威尔面临的压力,但现实情况是,即使没有这个因素,也有理由抛售美元。”“过去三个月发生的事情已经足以成为持续抛售美元的理由,而且这种抛售可能还会持续数月。”

  来源:人民财讯

  人民财讯4月21日电,券中社记者独家获悉,国泰海通近日发布内部公告,免去黄燕铭财富管理委员会委员职务。据知情人士透露,这一职务变动意味着黄燕铭已正式向国泰海通递交辞职申请,其职业生涯的下一站将锚定东方证券。

  公开资料显示,黄燕铭从业已近30年。1994年,黄燕铭便进入证券业,任职于万国证券经纪业务总部。1996年至2010年,黄燕铭历任申银万国证券研究所证券分析师、研究所副所长。2010年10月,黄燕铭加盟瑞银证券,但仅短暂停留了不足两年时间。2012年8月,黄燕铭从瑞银证券离职,加盟国泰君安证券研究所担任所长,任职近12年后,2024年3月,黄燕铭卸任国泰君安研究所所长,出任国泰君安金融学院院长。

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