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  法国央行行长维勒鲁瓦德加洛(FrancoisVilleroydeGalhau)周三表示,全球贸易战可能使美国陷入衰退,但所有国家都将受到打击,包括欧元区,尽管程度将较轻。

  美国对全球大多数国家加征了一系列关税,虽然已经暂停了其中一部分,但许多关税仍然有效,贸易动荡的威胁也给信心、投资和产出带来压力。

  “新宣布的措施以及日益加剧的不可预测性,对全球经济构成了重大负面冲击,但首当其冲受影响的将是美国经济,”维勒鲁瓦德加洛在华盛顿对大西洋理事会表示。“美国甚至可能陷入经济衰退,这在三个月前还是不可想象的。”

  维勒鲁瓦德加洛称,此次冲突对欧元区的影响可能会小得多,但仍可能导致2025年的GDP下降至少0.25%。他是一位颇具影响力的欧洲央行政策制定者。

  一些经济学家表示贸易战可能会推高通胀,但维勒鲁瓦德加洛淡化了这些担忧,称其净影响甚至可能导致价格下降。

  “目前欧洲没有通胀风险,”他表示。“(贸易战)对通胀的影响仍不确定,但整体上可能偏向下行。”

  维勒鲁瓦德加洛表示,对央行独立性和信誉的进一步攻击可能会加剧近几周金融市场的混乱。

  美国总统特朗普最近几周多次攻击美联储主席鲍威尔,但本周他收回了解雇鲍威尔的威胁,这推动金融市场上涨。

  维勒鲁瓦德加洛表示:“让我……再次向美联储主席鲍威尔表示感谢,他出色地展示了一位银行家应有的行为方式。”

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