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  来源:金十数据

  美国总统特朗普表示,美联储主席鲍威尔“被撤职的速度还不够快”,他指责美联储本应今年早些时候降息,“现在必须立即行动”。

  此言一出,现货黄金短线走高超10美元,随后小幅回落。

  这位曾在首个任期内提名鲍威尔的总统,周四早间在其社交平台TruthSocial上发文,用讽刺性绰号“太迟”称呼鲍威尔,并称“鲍威尔的撤职一刻都不能再等!”

  目前尚不清楚特朗普是指鲍威尔既定的任期结束(2026年5月),还是意图推动其提前离职。白宫未立即回应置评请求。鲍威尔的美联储理事任期将持续至2028年2月。

  这是特朗普对美联储的最新抨击,重现了其首个任期内与美联储的激烈矛盾,可能再度引发华盛顿关于美联储独立性的辩论。特朗普近期推动对全球加征对等关税,已引发对国内经济增长放缓和物价上涨的担忧,使美联储的政策制定面临更大挑战。

  特朗普发表上述言论之际,欧洲央行正酝酿第七次降息。他在文中特别提及:“而美联储的‘太迟’鲍威尔——总是行动太慢且错误——昨天又发布了一份典型的‘混乱’报告!”他补充称油价和食品价格已下跌,美国正通过关税“变得富裕”。

  鲍威尔周三在芝加哥经济俱乐部的演讲中强调,美联储必须确保关税不会引发更持久的通胀。“我们的职责是锚定长期通胀预期,防止一次性价格上涨演变为持续通胀问题。”尽管鲍威尔讲话后美股延续跌势,但周四早间期货市场有所回升。

  4月17日,内需方向表现亮眼,地产链全天强势,龙头房企上扬,代表A股龙头地产行情的中证800地产指数收涨逾2%。热门成份股方面,新城控股一度涨停收盘仍大涨超8%,站上所有均线,保利发展大涨超4%,万科A、滨江集团、华发股份均涨超2%。

  热门ETF方面,全市场唯一跟踪中证800地产指数的地产ETF(159707)全天领涨市场,场内收盘涨幅达2.78%,居全市场股票型ETF涨幅排行榜第一!从日K走势看,地产ETF(159707)今日一举收复多根均线,交投放量活跃,全天成交额达5929万元,环比翻倍!

  

  综合市场信息看,地产板块当前积累了多重积极因素,一方面是从当前楼市数据分析看,房地产市场或现企稳迹象;另一方面,在提振内需的大背景下,地产有望迎新一轮政策周期。此外,经过3年多的连续调整后,地产板块当前处估值低位,板块修复空间或较大。

  1、继续止跌回稳,楼市现企稳迹象

  楼市进入传统的“银四”时节,在政策支持下,多地楼市已出现回暖信号。国家统计局16日发布2025年3月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况:70个大中城市中,商品住宅销售价格环比上涨城市个数增加;一线城市商品住宅销售价格环比上涨。

  市场分析指出,从去年四季度以来,相关部门制定了一系列政策,包括改善房地产投资,加大城市老旧小区改造,加大保障房建设力度,针对房地产企业提出“白名单”制度等。在政策作用下,房地产市场延续止跌回稳走势,市场交易继续改善。此外,近期高盛首席中国股票策略师也明确指出:已经看到房地产市场出现了一些企稳迹象。

  2、扩内需背景下,地产政策有望释放

  中银国际表示,在关税摩擦导致出口承压的背景下,扩内需成为提振经济的关键,二季度货币政策有望进一步宽松,以应对外部的不确定性,而房地产作为内需的重要一环,“止跌回稳”的相关措施将进一步加速推进,本月5年期以上LPR下调概率或较高,核心城市的限购限售政策也可能进一步松绑。

  方正证券表示,经济外部形势变化下,楼市止跌回稳对提振内需意义重大,在此背景下楼市或将进入新一轮政策释放周期,巩固逐渐明朗的止跌回稳趋势。

  3、板块处估值低位,修复空间或较大

  估值层面上看,以央国企、优质房企为代表的龙头地产当前仍处估值低位。以地产ETF(159707)标的指数为例,截至4月17日,该指数最新PB估值仅为0.7倍,处近10年约11%分位点,估值低位特征明显,修复空间或较大。华泰证券也指出,行业集中度加速提升,头部房企凭借“好信用、好城市、好产品”策略展现韧性,建议持续关注。

  

  布局央国企及优质房企,建议重点关注地产ETF(159707)。资料显示,地产ETF(159707)跟踪中证800地产指数,汇集市场13只头部优质房企,在投资方向上具有明显的头部集中度优势,前十大成份股权重超9成,央国企含量高!在行业出清大背景下,龙头地产或更具弹性!

  数据来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:地产ETF被动跟踪中证800地产指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布日期为2012.12.21,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!

  美国上周首次申领失业救济人数减少9,000人至21.5万人,预估为22.5万人。

  接受调查的41位经济学家的预测范围为21.7万人至24.6万人。

  4周移动均值为22.08万人。

  在截至4月5日当周,持续申领失业救济人数增加4.1万人至188.5万人。

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