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  4月24日,沪指盘中窄幅震荡,北证50指数大幅下探;港股回调走低,恒生指数一度跌超1%,恒生科技指数一度跌超2%。

  具体来看,沪指盘中窄幅震荡,尾盘小幅上扬,北证50指数大跌超3%。截至收盘,沪指微涨0.03%报3297.29点,深证成指跌0.58%报9878.32点,创业板指跌0.68%报1935.86点,科创50指数跌近1%,北证50指数跌3.44%,沪深北三市合计成交11391亿元,较昨日减少1235亿元。

  场内近3700股飘绿,信创、云计算、算力概念等下挫,跨境支付概念回调,东方通(维权)、拉卡拉跌超10%;电力板块拉升,乐山电力、华银电力、西昌电力等涨停;银行板块上扬,农业银行、工商银行、中国银行涨约2%,再创历史新高;医药板块活跃,金凯生科、尔康制药、凯莱英等涨停;宠物经济概念崛起,天元宠物20%涨停,乖宝宠物、中宠股份再创新高。值得注意的是,近日的强势股安记食品(603696)、国芳集团(601086)尾盘双双上演“地天板”走势。

  港股方面,京东集团、美团跌超5%,周大福涨近7%。

  宠物经济概念崛起

  宠物经济概念盘中大幅走高,截至收盘,乖宝宠物、路斯股份涨约15%,中宠股份涨停,均创出历史新高。此外,天元宠物20%涨停,佩蒂股份涨近5%。

  乖宝宠物近日披露的2024年年度报告显示,报告期内,公司实现营收52.45亿元,同比增长21.22%;实现归母净利润6.25亿元,同比增长45.68%。其中,自有品牌业务收入35.45亿元,同比增长29.14%,公司盈利能力持续提升。

  中宠股份2024年年度报告显示,报告期内,公司实现营收44.65亿元,同比增长19.15%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润3.94亿元,同比增长68.89%。

  银河证券指出,我国宠物行业规模有望于2027年突破4000亿元。情感经济、科学养宠、理性养宠等消费趋势的变化将带来结构性机遇。宠物食品、医疗等子行业均存持续扩容预期,相关企业盈利能力有望进一步增强。重点推荐宠物食品、宠物医疗板块。

  电力板块拉升

  电力板块盘中强势拉升,截至收盘,乐山电力、华银电力、广西能源(维权)、西昌电力、郴电国际等涨停。

  数据显示,2025年1—3月,全国主要发电企业电网基本建设投资完成额为956亿千瓦时,同比增长24.8%,增速同比上升10.1pct;电源基本建设投资完成额1322亿千瓦时,同比减少2.5%,增速同比下降10.2pct。随着新能源并网加速,新能源消纳将进一步加大。2024年国家相关部门先后发布配电网发展、新能源消纳等政策,中期来看,电网投资高增速有望持续。

  湘财证券指出,目前美国政府实施“对等关税”引发的国内外经济不确定性持续加大,建议关注电力行业防御属性。政策端,当前全国统一电力市场建设加速推进,持续看好电力资产价值重估。

  两股尾盘“地天板”

  近日,多只强势股大幅震荡,如昨日跌停的安记食品、国芳集团尾盘双双上演“地天板”走势。

  具体来看,安记食品盘中大幅下探,一度触及跌停,尾盘直线拉升再度封涨停,上演“地天板”走势。该股昨日跌停,此前的6个交易日连续涨停。

  公司近日提示,公司股票价格短期涨幅较大,可能存在市场情绪过热、非理性炒作的情形,请广大投资者理性决策,注意二级市场交易风险,理性投资。目前公司主营业务、生产经营情况以及经营环境与前期披露的信息相比未发生重大变化,不存在应披露未披露的信息。

  国芳集团尾盘亦上演“地天板”走势,此前的13个交易日(4月3日—22日),该股收获12个涨停板。

  公司22日晚间提示,公司股价短期连续上涨,目前处于明显高位,股价严重偏离公司基本面,亦严重背离同期上证指数整体趋势。公司股票存在非理性炒作风险,交易风险极大,存在短期大幅下跌风险。公司基本面未发生重大变化,目前尚未发现对公司股票交易价格产生影响的媒体报道或市场传闻,亦未涉及市场热点概念等事项。

进入新的会计年度后,天齐锂业今年一季度火速扭亏。

4月23日晚间,天齐锂业发布一季度业绩预告,预计当期盈利0.82亿元至1.23亿元,上年同期则出现了39亿元的亏损。

对此,虽然有投资者表示感到意外,不过天齐锂业扭亏却完全有迹可循。今年3月召开的业绩说明会,天齐锂业高管便曾指出,(智利)SQM的税务仲裁事项、24年计提的存货减值和终止奎纳纳(二期)建设的减值影响2025年已消除,“考虑到这些因素,公司有信心一季度业绩会有所改善。”

从公司业绩预告有限的信息来看,一季度经营情况亦符合上述判断。虽然当期锂价继续回落,但此前困扰公司的原料定价周期错配问题,随着新购锂精矿陆续入库、库存锂精矿的逐步消化得到一定缓解。

更重要的是,去年导致公司财务性亏损的诸多拖累已经消除。比如其联营企业智利SQM公司的税务事件已于2024年度确认,彭博社预计后者一季度业绩同比增长,天齐锂业由此确认的投资收益随之提升。

以上减值、税务等扰动因素弱化后,天齐锂业的利润走势将更为贴近其主营业务。即便当前行业依旧处于底部区域,公司实现盈利的难度或也不算太大。

何以扭亏?

导致天齐锂业亏损的因素众多,涉及主营业务、投资收益、资产减值等多个方面。而在今年一季度,上述多个利润拖累因素得到明显缓解。

首先是主营业务,天齐锂业在业绩预告中指出,“得益于公司控股子公司WindfieldHoldingsPtyLtd锂矿定价周期缩短,其全资子公司TalisonlithiumPtyLtd化学级锂精矿定价机制与公司锂化工产品销售定价机制,在以前年度存在的时间周期错配影响已大幅减弱。”

当期,随着国内新购锂精矿陆续入库及库存锂精矿的逐步消化,天齐锂业各生产基地生产成本中耗用的化学级锂精矿成本,基本贴近最新采购价格。

这意味着,前期公司原材料阶段性升高的问题得到明显改善,并带动公司锂盐生产成本曲线整体下降。

加之受到自产工厂爬坡及技改的带动,天齐锂业一季度锂盐产销量实现同比增长,这也对冲掉了单位盈利减少的影响,公司主营业务盈利存在同比改善的可能。

其次,是公司利润表中一些偶发性冲击事件的消除。2024年一季度,SQM公司因为税务争议裁决事件,导致当期减利11亿美元,天齐锂业由此确认的投资收益随之减少。

由于SQM公司是在智利圣地亚哥、美国纽交所上市的公司,其季度报告披露时间晚于天齐锂业发布业绩预告,所以天齐锂业历来采用财务测算模型并结合彭博社预测的方式,预估SQM公司2025年第一季度经营损益。

而据彭博社预测,SQM公司2025年第一季度业绩预计将同比增长,相应的天齐锂业所确认的投资收益随之提升。

而除了以上公司提及的扭亏因素以外,去年拖累盈利表现的资产减值等业绩变量,今年一季度也有所减弱或者消除。

比如因终止澳洲奎纳纳二期氢氧化锂项目,所产生的在建工程减值损失已经计入到2024年度,今年一季度公司则没有了这部分在建工程的减值冲击。

此外,受到锂产品价格下跌的影响,2024年天齐锂业还有一笔6.95亿元左右的存货跌价损失及合同履约成本减值。

而在今年一季度,由于锂价已经进入历史底部区域,跌幅、下跌速率明显降低。

根据统计,2025年一季度,国内电池级碳酸锂的市场均价为7.58万元/吨,与2024年四季度的7.62万/吨基本持平,公司因存货跌价带来的减值压力也在减小。

实际上,天齐锂业这类经营规模较大、外部投资较多的行业龙头,在行业周期上行阶段,外部投资会为公司利润规模带来“加成”,而在行业下行阶段又会因为利润高基数等原因,导致公司利润数据剧烈波动。

而从天齐锂业一季度业绩趋势、当前行业周期位置来看,前期景气度下跌所带来的系统性冲击已经明显减弱。

竞争优势依旧

在上述SQM补税、资产减值等扰动因素消除后,天齐锂业的利润走势会更为贴近公司的主营业务。

而就主营业务来看,天齐锂业仍然是全球范围内最具竞争力的行业龙头。以2024年为例,公司营收合计130.6亿元,当期锂矿、锂盐营收占比分别为38%和62%左右,所以锂精矿、碳酸锂和氢氧化锂等产品的价格走势,直接决定了公司盈利能力的高低。

而在去年锂产品价格低位震荡的背景下,天齐锂业锂矿、锂盐的毛利率依旧达到63.71%和35.21%。

浙商证券援引澳洲IGO数据显示,2024年四季度,天齐锂业旗下的泰利森锂精矿单吨现金生产成本仅324澳元/吨(约等于206美元/吨),处于海外硬岩矿项目最低水平。

另据盛新锂能年报数据,2024年锂矿石(6%品位)同比下跌73.66%,至972美元/吨。换言之,即便后续锂精矿价格继续下跌至500美元/吨,天齐锂业并表的锂矿业务仍然具备可观的利润率。

再来看公司的锂盐产品。根据年报披露的“分产品”营业成本与销售量数据估算,并且是在2024年成本处于相对高位的基础上,天齐锂业单吨锂盐生产成本也不过5.1万元/吨,与永兴材料一起是当前国内成本最低的矿石提锂企业,仅次于盐湖提锂企业3-4万吨/吨的成本水平。

近期,虽然碳酸锂期货、现货价格再次走低,今日最新市场均价也下降至6.99万元/吨,但是天齐锂业凭借100%原料自给率、矿端低成本的优势,公司碳酸锂等产品也可以盈利。

不难看出,当前行业盈利难度虽然明显增加,但是天齐锂业主营业务的安全边际较高,甚至能够承受锂精矿、锂盐价格的进一步下跌。

退一步讲,假设后续市场出现预期外的极端行情,比如碳酸锂重归2020年4万元/吨的低点,届时除了少数盐湖企业能够小幅盈利以外,锂盐行业会步入全员亏损的状态,而天齐锂业前几年积累的资金,也足以帮助公司比大多数的同业公司存活更长时间。

年报数据显示,截至2024年末,天齐锂业货币资金接近58亿元,加上交易性金融资产、应收票据及应收账款等,公司流动资产达到128.5亿元。

此外,在经历2019年的债务危机后,公司近几年一直将负债率控制在低位,2024年末公司资产负债率也只有28.4%左右,低于同期、同行业43.3%的中位数(已披露年报的11家锂矿、锂盐上市公司)。

从上述主营业务、资产质量和经营风险等维度比较,天齐锂业仍是最具竞争优势的矿石提锂龙头。

  4月24日金融一线消息,中国平安今日发布关于2024年年度股东会增加临时提案的公告。公告显示,为了满足公司长期稳定发展的需求,优化资本结构,调整公司债务结构,降低财务融资成本,公司拟根据市场情况进行债务融资,在境内一次或分多次发行本金不超(含)500亿元人民币债券融资工具,包括但不限于资本补充债券、金融债券、公司债券及其他监管机构许可发行的境内人民币债券融资工具。前述境内债券融资工具不包含可转换债券。

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