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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  国泰海通发布研报称,特步国际(01368)主品牌跑鞋领域竞争力强劲,索康尼打开第二增长曲线,该行维持2025-2027年归母净利预测为13.7/14.9/16.1亿元人民币,对应PE分别为9.1/8.4/7.8X,考虑到公司为第三大国产运动集团,给予2025年低于行业平均的12XPE,目标价6.45港元(按照1港元=0.92元人民币换算),维持“增持”评级。

  国泰海通主要观点如下:

  Q1主品牌流水中单增长,索康尼靓丽高增。主品牌Q1全渠道流水同比增长中单位数,折扣为7-7.5折,同比持平,库销比约为4个月,维持健康。索康尼Q1全渠道流水同比增长40%以上。

  主品牌Q1功能性跑鞋销售优异,DTC修炼长期内功

  分渠道来看主品牌2025Q1线下流水同比增长低单位数、线上流水同比增长20%以上;分产品来看,功能性跑鞋Q1流水实现双位数增长,充分展现公司跑鞋领域竞争力,服装领域计划推出户外、防晒等类型新品有望提振服装类产品销售表现。根据业绩会交流,4月至今公司流水符合预期,DTC改革如期推进,渠道和商品管理准备中,预计2025H2开始回收店铺,到2026年总计回收计划400-500家,该行认为短期对2025年利润或有轻微影响,中长期有望提高运营效率、提升客户体验和增强品牌忠诚度。

  索康尼Q1流水亮眼,远期展望乐观

  索康尼2025Q1流水同比高增40%以上,根据业绩会交流,4月至今表现优异,针对2025年公司维持30-40%增长指引,预计新开店30家,以高层级市场大店为主中长期来看,索康尼定位双精英跑步人群,空间广阔,预计3-5年收入有望翻倍,计划每年新开店20-30家,店效存在较大增长空间经营利润率有望达到15%以上。

  风险提示:行业竞争加剧,拓店不及预期等。

  4月20日,琏升科技发布公告,拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式收购兴储世纪69.71%的股权,同时向关联方海南琏升定向增发募集配套资金,发行价为5.47元/股。

  值得注意的是,这是公司自2020年以来第四次筹划定增,此前三次均以失败告终。

  此次交易被寄望于整合光伏与储能产业链,但结合其连年亏损、高负债及行业周期性风险,市场质疑其能否真正扭转颓势。

  琏升科技前身为互联网服务商“三五互联”,2022年转型光伏HJT电池领域,但跨界并未带来业绩改善。

  财报显示,公司自2018年起连续七年亏损,累计亏损超8亿元。2024年,公司预计归母净利润亏损6000万至1.2亿元,同比扩大51%-202%。尽管2024年前三季度营收同比增112.5%至3.11亿元,但光伏产业链价格暴跌导致毛利率骤降,存货跌价准备激增,吞噬利润。

  更严峻的是,光伏行业2024年陷入全产业链亏损,龙头企业隆基、TCL中环合计亏损超200亿元,琏升科技的高成本HJT技术(异质结电池)因投资大、盈利周期长,进一步加剧资金压力。

  截至2024年三季度末,琏升科技资产负债率攀升至73.2%,账面货币资金仅9472万元,而有息负债超10.5亿元(含租赁负债)。

  此外,公司眉山8GW项目总投资40亿元,实际投入仅11.64亿元,南通一期3GW项目累计投入1.6亿元,离投产需求差距显著,光伏项目资金缺口巨大。

  为缓解压力,公司频繁资产腾挪。2023年,琏升科技出售厦门三五互联,2024年剥离三五信息及道熙科技股权,累计回笼资金不足1亿元。控股股东海南琏升虽提供2.1亿元无息借款,但仍杯水车薪。

  值得注意的是,琏升科技此前三次筹划连续折戟,失败原因包括“市场环境恶化、财务瑕疵、估值争议以及被质疑利益输送”等。

  本次交易标的兴储世纪虽具备光伏电站运营及钠电池示范项目等储能技术,但钠电池市占率不足1%,产业化尚存争议,协同效应能否兑现仍是未知数。

  此外,行业周期性变化、技术路线更迭以及治理缺陷等也是琏升科技转型光伏不容忽视的风险。

  具体来看,光伏产业链价格战持续,分布式光伏上网限制等政策调整加剧不确定性;HJT电池高成本与钠电池低能量密度的瓶颈,可能拖累技术商业化进程;实控人黄明良关联交易频繁,收购标的股东涉及中兴系撤退及地方国资,交易动机被指存套利嫌疑。

  琏升科技的第四次定增试图以“光伏+储能”整合破局,但行业下行期,其高负债、低现金储备及治理短板或成致命伤。

  若收购后资金链断裂或整合失利,公司恐面临更深危机。对于投资者而言,此次交易既是风险亦是机遇,需密切关注2025年行业回暖信号及标的资产的实际贡献。

  注:本文创作借助AI工具收集整理市场数据和行业信息,结合辅助观点分析和撰写成文。

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