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近日,北京市推出了32条创新药支持措施,重点加速医药健康产业创新,优化审批流程,并强化资金支持。同时,深圳市通过《全链条支持医药和医疗器械发展若干措施》,覆盖研发、生产、应用及出海全链条,明确对完成临床试验并上市的1类创新药给予最高3000万元奖励,大力推动“AI+医药”与宠物药械等新兴赛道。创新和出海成为了近期医药生物板块的核心投资主线之一。

而医药板块由于国际关税环境变化和地缘预期波动,出现了较为明显回调。但相关机构认为,A股和港股创新药回调是宝贵机会,原因在于:中国创新药进口逆差较大,我国西成药和生化药进口金额远大于出口金额。中国出口西药,是以相对廉价的西药原料为主,利润率较高的成药与生化药总共占比仅约两成,而且根据相关媒体引述的美国FDA数据,美国从中国进口的成药以阿莫西林与青霉素等抗菌药为主,这些产品利润率较低,对药品出口征收关税对药企的利润影响有限。

与此同时,中国创新药出海多数采用BD(BusinessDevelopment,商务合作,即将药物的海外开发权益授权给国外药企)、NewCo(设立海外新公司,授权管线并获得股权)等方式出海,其本质是IP(IntellectualProperty)的交易、并不涉及具体药品的制造出口,关税波动风险小。

而随着中国科技实力的全球认知提升,中国药企创新实力及其成长空间也开始被资本市场重新关注。机构既看好国际化高水平引进能力领先的药企标的,也看好本土原研“真创新”类药企。

为什么当前时刻建议重视港股创新药?

核心逻辑一:中国创新药出海的全球竞争优势正在凸显

近年来,中国药企在海外市场的License-out交易实现了跨越式发展,展现出中国创新药研发的全球竞争力。NewCo模式的兴起,进一步为原药企解决了融资难、变现难、研发风险大等问题。

核心逻辑二:当前关税政策对创新药影响远小于其他成长性板块

创新药License-out的核心盈利模式是“前期授权费+里程碑付款+销售分成”的三段式结构,由于技术授权属于知识产权交易而非实体商品流通,不涉及HS编码下的关税问题,不直接受贸易政策变化影响。

核心逻辑三:政策及监管态度逐步转向对板块有利的情形

2023年下半年以来,政策层面出现了一系列积极信号,标志着行业监管思路的调整,包括但不限于集采规则优化、创新药支持政策加码、医疗反腐常态化与纠偏。

财务、估值及交易数据:营收增长、估值低位

财报层面:头部港股创新药公司受益于License-out放量,营收和利润稳步增长

估值层面:年初以来科技股的放量大涨之后,医药板块相比于其他成长行业,估值处于相对安全的区间。

交易充分度:对医药的基本面修复,市场定价或尚不充分

成交情况来看:年初以来在DeepSeek的激励下,港股市场交投情形改善显著,相比之下,港股医药板块的关注度并不算高。

南向资金配置来看:去年10月以来南向资金降低红利板块的持仓比重、同时加大对成长(和顺周期)的押注。但分行业来看,景气成长板块中硬件和半导体被增持幅度最大,医药和软件相对中性。

恒生医疗ETF(513060)作为市场上唯一跟踪恒生医疗保健指数的ETF,覆盖了创新药、CXO、医疗器械三大核心赛道。指数成分股2023年平均研发投入占比达45%,22家企业进入商业化兑现期。据相关机构预测,2024-2026年板块营收复合增长率将达38%,净利润率有望提升至15%以上。当前板块市盈率(TTM)处于近三年低位,显著低于纳斯达克生物科技指数(NBI)。随着港股流动性改善,创新药企估值修复空间广阔。

医药板块:百济神州、药明生物、信达生物、康方生物、药明合联、三生制药、科伦博泰生物、微创机器人、乐普生物

行业板块相关基金:

$恒生医疗ETF(513060)$

$港股互联网ETF(159568)$

产品风险等级:中高(此为管理人评级,具体销售以各代销机构评级为准)

风险提示:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。基金过往业绩不预示未来表现。基金不同于银行储蓄和债券等固定收益预期的金融工具,不同类型的基金风险收益情况不同,投资人既可能分享基金投资所产生的收益,也可能承担基金投资所带来的损失。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产,但不保证本基金一定盈利,也不保证收益,基金净值存在波动风险,基金管理人管理的其他基金业绩不构成对本基金业绩表现的保证,基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。投资者应认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》及《产品概要》等法律文件,及时关注本公司出具的适当性意见,各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致,本公司的适当性匹配意见并不表明对基金的风险和收益做出实质性判断或者保证。基金合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收益情况,结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎决策并自行承担风险,不应采信不符合法律法规要求的销售行为及违规宣传推介材料。

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