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4月17日,长江有色金属网显示,长江综合多晶硅现货报价32000-34000元/吨,均价为33000元/吨,持平;多晶硅复投料37000-41000元/吨,均价为39000元/吨,持平;多晶硅菜花料31500-34000元/吨,均价为32750元/吨,持平;多晶硅致密料35000-36500元/吨,均价为35750元/吨,持平。

截止14:25,期货市场延续跌势,多晶硅期货主力合约PS2506报39925元/吨,下跌45元/吨,跌幅0.11%,盘中最低触及39860元/吨,最高达40680元/吨,成交额达62.75亿元,成交量为51931手。

现货市场表面持稳实则暗流涌动,头部企业仍维持挺价策略。需求端疲态尽显,"531"抢装红利消退后,下游企业优先消耗自有库存,采购转向价格更优的混包料或珊瑚料,致密料及复投料成交企业仅4家,签单量创年内新低。

供应端博弈加剧。全行业降负荷运行背景下,西南地区依托0.35元/度的水电成本优势,部分产能已重启,但新疆、四川等地库存积压严重,20万吨级储罐接近满仓,行业总库存达26.3万吨,可满足全球2个月需求。尽管企业月度排产维持稳定,但丰水期复产计划仍未明确。

期货市场呈现"近弱远强"格局。空头借现货成交清淡持续施压,但市场预期四川产区依托电价优势复产可能拉低成本支撑位。值得关注的是,仓单注册意愿低迷或引发交割前流动性风险,部分多头开始逢低布局。

政策面扰动加剧市场不确定性。国家发改委近日召集头部企业研讨产能预警机制,多个省份拟将光伏产品纳入战略性收储,机构IEA将2025年全球光伏装机预期下调15%至390GW,欧洲组件库存积压80GW,海外需求萎缩进一步压制价格反弹空间。

本文基于市场信息分析,不构成投资建议,实际操作需结合实时动态审慎决策。长江有色金属网电话:0592-5668838

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