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新疆维吾尔自治区

  4月22日电(记者陈彩霞)“美国总统特朗普对关税的错误理解,导致他做出了一系列错误决定,对全球资本市场、股市及债市造成严重冲击,将美国单边霸凌主义表现得淋漓尽致。”中国社科院国家全球战略智库国际政治研究部主任赵海在接受采访时如是说道。

  连日来,这场席卷全球的“关税风暴”不断发酵。从美方宣布征收所谓“对等关税”,到对大部分贸易伙伴暂缓90天征税,分析认为,特朗普政府“反复横跳”,不停修改关税政策“乱上加乱”。

  赵海指出,作为商人,特朗普习惯将复杂问题简化为“交易”逻辑,认为贸易逆差是“美国吃亏”的直接证据。这种直觉式思维忽视了经济学中的比较优势理论和全球分工的现实。

  “美国新政府的这次表现,是一次历史性的分水岭,美国已完全抛弃以世界贸易组织(WTO)为中心的全球自由贸易体制。”赵海说道。

  赵海解释称,特朗普政府加征关税的初衷,包含了增加美国财政税收的重要诉求,因为当前美债达到一个历史性高位——超36万亿美元,债务利息未来可能会超过美国整体国防预算,因此美国政府需要开源节流,“想尽办法从世界其他国家捞取利益”。

  赵海强调,美国发起的关税战短期内遭遇强烈反弹,导致美国内市场陷入混乱,民众抗议不断,其阵营内部也出现分裂——代表华尔街资本的美国亿万富翁马斯克与“美国优先”派代表、白宫贸易和制造业高级顾问彼得·纳瓦罗激烈对立。

  “面对各方压力,特朗普被迫调整策略,将关税政策仓促退让包装成‘抬价后谈判’的既定计划,试图通过施压换取他国让步,并最终将矛头集中指向中国。”赵海说道。

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