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  加拿大皇家银行旗下BlueBay资产管理公司已建立美元空头头寸,押注美国例外主义的终结——因特朗普总统发动的贸易战可能摧毁美元数十年来建立的信任与信誉。由于市场担忧特朗普关税政策将冲击经济、居民收入和金融市场,加之投资者正从美股撤资,美元持续走低,其作为全球金融体系基石的“例外主义”地位遭到质疑。

  4月以来,美元对六种主要货币汇率指数下跌4%,或将创2022年以来最差单月表现。BlueBay固定收益团队首席投资官马克·道丁表示:“上周初我们就在抛售美元。美国决策层正丧失公信力。”他管理的全球资产规模超1330亿美元,称特朗普关税政策“显得缺乏深思熟虑”。该基金年初还持有美元多头,但在一季度中期平仓后转为看空。

  鉴于日元被低估及日本海外资本回流,BlueBay看好日元将升至1美元兑135日元,较当前水平升值近6%。特朗普反复无常的关税威胁引发美股、美债及汇市剧烈波动,市场开始质疑美元和美债能否维持避险资产地位。道丁指出,欧洲和日本投资者正将更多资金配置于本土资产而非美国,“这可能成为美元价值的长期转折点”。

  道丁认为美联储近期难以降息,因关税可能扰乱供应链、推高通胀。“国债价格波动将持续”,他正等待更好介入时机:“若10年期收益率跌破4.2%会考虑抛售,升破4.8%则买入。”该基金已开始增持欧美通胀挂钩债券,预计“美国今年通胀率将升至4%”。

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