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  回顾ETF的发展历程可以发现,资金呈现加速流入状态。ETF规模突破第一个万亿元历时16年,而达到第四个万亿元仅耗时半年多。拆分各类型ETF来看,权益类ETF规模突破3万亿元,以中央汇金为代表的“国家队”,以及各类产业资本和个人投资者,纷纷借道ETF入市,共同推动ETF规模爆发式增长。

  ◎记者赵明超

  在指数化投资浪潮中,伴随汹涌而来的资金,ETF最新规模突破4万亿元。

  回顾ETF的发展历程可以发现,资金呈现加速流入状态。ETF规模突破第一个万亿元历时16年,而达到第四个万亿元仅耗时半年多。拆分各类型ETF,权益类ETF规模突破3万亿元,以中央汇金为代表的“国家队”,以及各类产业资本和个人投资者,纷纷借道ETF入市,共同推动ETF规模爆发式增长。

  万亿资金奔流ETF规模快速攀升

  对于ETF市场来说,当年种下的一颗种子,如今已长成参天大树。

  Choice资讯测算数据显示,截至4月18日,ETF数量超过1100只,总规模超过4万亿元,创下新的历史纪录。

  从当前ETF的构成来看,权益类ETF担当主力。截至4月18日,权益类ETF合计超过3.3万亿元,占比超过八成。其中,沪深300ETF总规模合计达到1.04万亿元,这是目前国内唯一一个万亿元级别的宽基ETF赛道。

  从申赎情况来看,权益类ETF呈现逢低加仓的特点,尤其是市场震荡之时,资金加速涌入。例如,去年10月8日,权益类ETF净申购额首次超千亿元。今年4月8日,权益类ETF净申购额达到1105.05亿元,刷新ETF单日净申购额最高纪录。

  随着资金持续涌入,百亿级权益类ETF阵营大幅扩容,“巨无霸”ETF批量出现。具体来看,截至4月18日,共有56只权益类ETF规模超过百亿元。其中,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF规模为3757.12亿元,易方达沪深300ETF规模为2599.62亿元。此外,华夏沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF、南方中证500ETF的规模都在千亿元以上。易方达创业板ETF、华夏科创50ETF、南方中证1000ETF、易方达科创板50ETF等规模也均超600亿元。

  债券市场指数化投资趋势同样加速。从债券ETF的发展历程来看,2013年3月,国内第一只债券ETF成立,历经11年发展之后,2024年5月,债券ETF总规模首次突破千亿元。今年2月7日,债券ETF规模突破2000亿元。截至4月18日,债券ETF规模已达到2391.78亿元。

  具体来看,多只债券ETF规模已超过百亿元。其中,富国中债7-10年政策性金融债ETF规模为446.89亿元,博时可转债ETF规模为349.53亿元,海富通中证短融ETF规模为320.04亿元。

  过去几个月,随着金价的持续走高,大量资金涌入黄金ETF。今年以来,截至4月18日,黄金ETF净申购额合计超过500亿元。多只黄金ETF规模创历史新高,其中华安黄金ETF规模逼近600亿元,博时黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF规模也都超过240亿元。

  梳理ETF的发展历程,过去20余年来,ETF经历了从蹒跚起步到加速奔跑的过程。

  2004年底,华夏上证50ETF宣告成立,这是国内第一只ETF,也标志着ETF正式启航。历经16年的发展之后,2020年10月,ETF总规模终于突破万亿元。自此,ETF进入加速发展期,不断迈上新的台阶。

  2023年8月,ETF总规模首次突破2万亿元;2024年9月,ETF总规模突破3万亿元。又过了半年时间,即2025年4月,ETF总规模突破4万亿元。

  多方资金推动ETF持有人全面开花

  ETF规模的迅猛增长,缘于投资者的迅猛买入。

  从持有人结构来看,不管是以中央汇金等为代表的“国家队”,还是以私募基金、保险资管、券商资管为代表的机构投资者,乃至个人投资者,都选择通过ETF进行布局,这几种力量的共同推动,让ETF规模爆发式增长。

  景顺长城基金等机构联合发布的2024年《ETF客户投资行为洞察报告》显示,截至去年底,ETF(非货币类)份额持有人总数达2095万户(不含ETF联接基金),较2019年中期报告披露的177万户增长10.8倍。

  去年大量新增投资者借助ETF入市。根据同花顺平台、国泰海通君弘平台的数据推算,从2024年9月24日至10月31日,新开且活跃客户中约有23%的客户参与ETF交易,而同期活跃的存量客户中ETF客户占比仅19%,表明新增投资者对指数化投资工具的接受度已显著提升。

  从ETF个人投资者的年龄结构来看,截至去年底,30至40岁的投资者依旧是中坚力量,占比超过三成。25岁以下的年轻客群也正以惊人的速度崛起,较前一年客户数占比提升212%,增速在各年龄段中最高。

  除了个人投资者数量大增,长线资金已成为ETF的坚定持有人,并且大手笔扫货。以中央汇金为例,2013年二季度,中央汇金在华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF持有人名单中首次现身。自2023年下半年以来,中央汇金增持ETF力度明显加大。

  从持仓金额来看,截至2023年底,中央汇金持有ETF合计1248亿元,主要持有沪深300ETF、上证50ETF、上证180ETF、中证500ETF等。自2024年以来,中央汇金开始增持多种类型的ETF。截至2024年6月底,中央汇金的ETF持仓金额猛增至5905亿元,持仓范围也进一步扩大,涵盖中证1000ETF、创业板ETF、科创板ETF等。在2024年下半年的震荡行情中,中央汇金加大增持力度,截至2024年底,中央汇金持有ETF金额合计突破万亿元。

  中央汇金增持ETF步履不停。4月7日,中央汇金发布公告:“中央汇金公司坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景,充分认可当前A股配置价值,已再次增持了交易型开放式指数基金(ETF),未来将继续增持,坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。”

  此外,长线资金也在借助新发ETF入市。根据工银瑞信国证港股通创新药ETF发布的上市交易公告书,截至3月27日,机构投资者持有的基金份额为12.11亿份,占比达95.67%,其中前十名持有人包括9个企业年金计划。

  产业资本同样积极加仓ETF。以嘉实上证科创板工业机械ETF为例,截至4月17日,马特马克工业集团有限公司位列该ETF第一大持有人,持有份额为500万份。珠海市创颖经贸发展有限公司也位列基金前十名持有人,持有160万份。

  资金往“高处”走ETF折射市场变革

  资金以逐利为目的,永远奔向获利最大的方向。ETF的发展历程,恰好是透视市场发展变化的镜子。

  当前我国ETF市场已经形成了比较完整的指数投资生态体系,其产品类型已覆盖A股、跨境、债券、商品、货币等大类资产,投资者可以根据不同的风险偏好、收益规划,通过ETF工具进行大类资产配置或轮动操作,实现投资目标。

  从行业最新发展动向来看,各种ETF创新产品不断推出。从最初的上证50ETF、上证180ETF、沪深300ETF等大盘宽基ETF,逐步发展出各个更有针对性的宽基ETF和行业ETF,为投资者提供更多的资产配置选项。

  仅从过去半年多来的情况看,2024年9月23日,中证A500指数正式发布,引发资金竞相追逐。截至今年4月18日,已有32只中证A500ETF上市交易,规模合计近2200亿元。

  类似的还有,1月20日,上证科创板综合指数及其价格指数正式发布。从最新情况来看,目前已有15只科创综指ETF上市交易。此外,今年以来自由现金流主题ETF也大幅扩容,相关产品线不断丰富,涉及沪深300自由现金流指数、国证自由现金流指数、中证800自由现金流指数、富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦指数等。

  沪上某基金研究人士表示,从某种意义上说,投资就是投未来。资本趋利避害的天性,决定了其必然流向潜在回报更高的地方,因此,代表未来的科技创新板块受到了资本青睐,代表中国的“标普500”指数的中证A500ETF也受到了投资者的青睐。

  在华夏基金总经理李一梅看来,随着居民财富管理需求升级,投资者从单一追求高收益转向风险收益平衡,更重视资产保值与合理增值,资产配置多元化的需求日益强烈。作为透明、低成本、高效率的工具,ETF正在成为资产配置的核心载体,成为资金流入的方向。

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