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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82

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  英国通胀连续第二个月回落,在本月账单大幅上涨之前,让英国家庭松了一口气。英国国家统计局周三公布,3月消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2.6%,较2月份2.8%的涨幅有所放缓。这是自去年12月以来的最低通胀率,低于经济学家和英国央行预测的2.7%。

  英国国家统计局表示,通胀放缓的原因是电脑游戏价格下降、燃料价格下降以及食品价格保持不变。服务业通胀率从5%降至4.7%,英国央行此前的预期是4.9%。英国央行密切关注服务业通胀,以寻找国内价格压力的迹象。

  英国3月份商品和服务通胀率有所下降

  通胀放缓可能给英国消费者带来些许安慰。从本月开始的财政年度中,消费者将看到从市政税到能源和水账单等基本费用将平均上涨600英镑(795.81美元)。预计到今年夏天,通胀率将远高于3%。

  然而,对英国央行而言,任何通胀回升将被美国总统唐纳德·特朗普发起的贸易战的影响所掩盖。

  交易员加大押注英国央行降息

  美国混乱的关税政策已经收紧了金融环境,导致能源价格下滑,美元走弱,全球经济增长前景黯淡,促使交易员押注英国央行将进一步降息——包括5月8日会议将降息25个基点。

  摩根大通资产管理公司全球市场分析师ZaraNokes表示:“通胀风险当然没有消失,但英国央行现在有必要权衡通胀上行风险与经济增长下行风险。如果劳动力市场在本月雇主国民保险费上调后出现明显恶化,那么英国央行加大降息力度的压力只会加剧。”

  通胀数据公布后,英镑兑美元保持涨势,上涨0.3%,至1.3273。此前,英镑兑美元汇率创下六个月新高,至1.3289,有望创下自去年7月以来最长的连涨纪录。

  英国财政大臣RachelReeves在通胀数据公布后表示:“通胀率连续两个月下降,工资增速快于物价增速,以及积极的经济增长数据,这些都是令人鼓舞的迹象,表明我们的改革计划正在奏效,但仍有许多工作要做。”

  在特朗普关税政策引发市场巨震之际,英国央行官员并不认同关税将抑制英国通胀的观点。

  近几周,英国央行官员SarahBreeden和MeganGreene都表示,美国关税政策对物价的影响仍不明朗。英国央行政策制定者还必须应对劳动力市场降温的问题。

  私营部门的预测者更加大胆地预测,美国关税将意味着今年晚些时候英国通胀降低。最近几周,包括高盛和德意志银行在内的主要银行都下调了对英国价格增长的预期。

  投资者也加大了对英国央行更快降息的押注,预计英国央行今年至少还会降息三次,每次降息25个基点。

  毕马威英国首席经济学家YaelSelfin表示:“如果潜在的通胀压力继续缓和,关税的通缩影响可能会为英国央行提供更大的降息空间。”

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