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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-17ll.com/label.php on line 82
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图源:CFP

界面新闻记者| 刘婷

周一美元指数大跌,盘中跌破98,为三年来首次。分析师表示,投资者对美国贸易政策不确定性及其经济走弱预期的担忧,是导致美元大跌的主要原因,短期美元的弱势或仍将延续。

北京时间21日开盘不久,美元指数就跌破99关口,随后在98-99区间内弱势震荡。15时58分,美元指数跌破98关口,创下2022年3月以来新低。截至北京时间22日11:30左右,美元指数报98.12 。今年迄今,美元指数跌10%左右。

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪对界面新闻表示,近期美元指数持续下跌有三个原因。一是,美国3月居民消费价格指数(CPI)超预期回落,叠加部分经济数据疲软,强化了美联储降息预期;二是,特朗普政府的关税政策对经济前景的冲击,结合经济数据疲软,强化了市场对美国经济衰退的预期,削弱市场对美元的信心;三是,特朗普政策反复不定带来的不确定性,导致市场避险情绪上升,纷纷逃离美债等美元资产,回流欧日,导致美元汇率更为弱势。

此外,从消息面来看,特朗普政府上周频发威胁美联储独立性的言论,也削弱了投资者对美元的信心。上周四,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁将炒掉美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔,一天后,白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特表示,总统及其团队正在研究是否可以解雇鲍威尔。

华侨银行分析师ChristopherWong在研报中表示,特朗普威胁解雇鲍威尔的言论“令人难以置信”。若美联储的信誉受到质疑,可能会严重削弱人们对美元的信心。市场可能会继续要求对美元资产支付政治风险溢价,尤其是如果这种说法在未来几周或几天内得到证实的话。

弱美元背景下,非美货币表现强势。其中,日元对美元汇率21日升破141关口,刷新去年9月以来新高,最新报140.21;欧元对美元汇率升破1.15关口,现报1.1531。

白雪认为,短期内考虑到美国经济下行压力加大,叠加资金向非美市场外流,美元的弱势或将延续。

中信期货研报表示,后续来看,需要关注两方面,一是政策不确定性与关税带来的价格冲击对美国居民消费、企业投资与就业市场的影响程度;二是关注特朗普就关税政策的谈判进展,尤其是中美之间何时开启谈判。若关税政策不确定性持续挫伤市场信心,美元指数或下跌至95。反之,若中美开启谈判且谈判结果向好,或能带动市场对美国信心修复,美元指数或升至100-104区间。

分析师进一步指出,美国政府内外政策的不确定性令美元避险功能弱化,美元和美债变得更像风险资产,而非避险资产。

高盛表示,一方面,贸易紧张局势加剧和其他增加不确定性的政策正在侵蚀消费者和企业信心,另一方面,投资者对美国政府治理能力的看法不断变化,也影响了美元资产对外国投资者的吸引力,而政府决策的反复,使得投资者很难对除高度不确定性之外的结果进行定价。

“我们此前曾提出,美元估值高企的原因在于美国卓越的回报前景。但如果关税影响到美国企业的利润率和美国消费者的实际收入,它们就会侵蚀这种例外主义,进而破坏强势美元的核心支柱。”高盛高级外汇策略师迈克尔·卡希尔(MichaelCahill)上周五在一份研报中表示。

更令人担忧的是“海湖庄园协议”未来可能会落地,这进一步增加了美元的风险。

“海湖庄园协议”框架来自白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰(StephenMiran)去年11月撰写的一份报告,其核心是推动“美元贬值+美债重组”。米兰认为,在维持美元储备货币地位的同时,可以通过多边协议,要求其他国家货币升值,从而令美元贬值;美债方面,可以通过将其他国家持有的短期美债转化为长期无息债券的做法,来减轻美国政府的利息支出压力。

米兰还是加征关税的支持者,主张利用关税进行汇率和美债方面的谈判。他表示,关税是促进制造业回流的重要手段,因为关税可以迫使外国企业将制造基地放在美国本土。与此同时,关税收入增加也可以部分减轻美国财政赤字,改善经常项目逆差。

正因如此,当特朗普向全球贸易伙伴宣布开征所谓的“对等关税”后,投资者大规模抛售美债,导致美债收益率快速上行,30年期国债收益率一度突破5%。

瑞士资产管理公司百达(Pictet)认为,无论是在理论还是实践层面,“海湖庄园协议”均存在谬误。其最激进的部分将通过三个方面挑战美国金融的稳定性:破坏国债稳定性、削弱美联储的独立性、最终动摇美元的储备货币地位。

“尽管‘海湖庄园协议’全面实施的可能性极低,但并不能排除其中部分条款进入政策讨论阶段,包括针对外国持有国债的利息支付征收少量费用。此类费率可能仅适用于新发国债,且因国家而异,在市场动荡期间大概率不会推行。即便如此,该政策仍将对美国债券市场及整体金融稳定构成重大风险。”百达宏观经济研究主杜泽飞(FrederikDucrozet)表示。

白雪也表示,“海湖庄园协议”短期内并不具备落地的现实基础。首先,当前海外央行的美元储备主要集中在亚洲和中东国家,这显著加大了海外国家配合的难度。1985年美国与德国、日本、英国、法国签署《广场协议》,多国协同干预汇市,推动美元贬值,当时美元储备主要集中在欧洲盟国;其次,私人部门持有的美债不受协议约束,投资者可能的抛售行为也会抵消官方行动效果;第三,欧洲和日本盟友配合美国落地协议的可能性很小,经济基本面状况完全无法为本币升值提供支撑。

“当前欧洲复苏乏力,尤其德国、法国短期内受关税冲击,可能处于衰退边缘;而日本经济复苏也尚未完全稳定,近两年刚走出长期通缩状态。在这种情况下,经济基本面状况完全无法为本币升值提供支撑。这也是近期日本在与美国的关税、汇率谈判中态度强硬的原因。”白雪说。她指出,《广场协议》签署的一个重要背景是,当时欧洲及日本经济基本面均处于强劲乃至过热状态,这为其货币升值提供了经济基本面基础。

  产品质量问题被曝光一周后,网红卫生巾品牌“绵绵的羊”作出回应。

  4月22日,“绵绵的羊”发布公开信称,针对近日网络反馈的产品瑕疵问题,公司第一时间配合政府及相关部门展开全面调查。目前相关部门调查组已出具结论,其产品生产与销售流程合法合规。

  “绵绵的羊”在公开信中表示,4月15日,在收到相关反馈后,当日山东省临沂市及兰山区市场监管、卫生健康等政府部门,进驻该公司及产品云仓,同步对产品相关资质材料进行审查,云仓储存环境勘验,并把相关产品进行抽样送检;同时山东省东营市广饶县市场监管、卫生健康部门进驻工厂,对工厂资质,生产环境等进行检查。

  “绵绵的羊”称,该公司从4月15日,对全网产品暂停销售,配合相关部门专项调查组进行全方位成品抽检,产品封存,对生产线、仓储、物流及销售全链路展开彻查。

  公开信称,经权威检测机构与政府部门确认,“绵绵的羊”所有产品均符合国家卫生用品生产标准(卫生标准GB15979、GB/T8939)。“绵绵的羊”产品生产流程、原料采购及成品检测等均符合国家标准,未发现有害物质或系统性质量问题,目前相关部门调查组己出具结论,其产品生产与销售流程合法合规。

  “绵绵的羊”在公开信中称,为进一步保障消费者权益,将在7日内优化客诉响应机制,同时将开通客服专线,针对特殊客诉情况进行及时响应。其实验室将对客诉质检时效进行优化,避免顾客因等待质检时间过长,从而影响售后体验感。

  据蓝鲸新闻4月14日报道,多位消费者爆料,网红卫生巾品牌“绵绵的羊”存在明显质量问题。该店铺出售的卫生巾和安睡裤里出现各种异物,包括红色斑迹、黑色异物、黄色污渍等。

  有消费者表示:“穿了绵绵的羊安睡裤后身体出现一系列问题,但客服表示需要有医院开具证明才能进行处理。最后即便去医院开具了病菌感染的证明,商家也未解决问题。”

  4月16日,有媒体记者检索电商平台发现,“绵绵的羊”官方企业店显示未有产品在售,所有产品均已下架。

  4月22日,“绵绵的羊”创办人赵子涵在抖音官方直播间开始售卖卫生巾。目前,“绵绵的羊”女性护理旗舰店的粉丝量为255万。

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