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皇极惊世录 - 轻松破解隐藏关卡的终极技巧

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  4月18日,A股延续震荡,大金融明显发力,银行全天力挺,午后券商、地产异动拉升,带动沪指一度翻红,无奈尾盘再度向下,沪指止步8连涨。6G概念、通信设备活跃,创业板指震荡反弹涨0.27%。今日港美股等众多海外市场假期休市,无外资参与,两市成交额进一步缩量至9147亿元。

  周度表现看,市场热点较为杂乱,仅银行走出持续性上涨。A股顶流银行ETF(512800)今日场内再涨0.98%,收盘价格逆市创出历史新高,日线强势9连阳!

  地产也走出亮眼表现,房地产(申万一级)本周累计上涨3.4%,区间表现仅次于银行。跟踪龙头房企表现的地产ETF(159707)午后强势拉升翻红,场内收涨0.8%。

  此外,半导体芯片、金融科技、军工等赛道周内轮动发力。尽管外部不确定性因素持续存在,但受益于政策红利与产业趋势升级,科技与消费两条主线渐成市场共识,银行作为高股息避险品种则被视为对冲市场波动的关键配置。

  在不确定性中捕捉确定性,兼顾防御性与成长性,或可聚焦三大方向:内需政策驱动、高股息避险、科技高成长。分析认为,当前我国半导体、工业软件等领域的国产化进程因政策支持正加速推进,同时军工板块的确定性有望提升,或可逢机关注相关板块的配置机会。

  【ETF全知道热点收评】下面重点聊聊银行、地产两个主题的交易和基本面情况。】

  [突发!这只ETF逆市新高!险资举牌、主力狂涌,银行坐稳A股“铁王座”]

  银行板块再走强,全天力挺大盘,工、农、中、建四大行盘中均创出历史新高,兴业银行、厦门银行、长沙银行、招商银行等涨幅居前。

  A股顶流银行ETF(512800)早盘低开后迅速拉升,盘中场内价格一度涨逾1%,收涨0.98%,日线强势9连阳,新一轮向上节奏或已开启。值得注意的是,银行ETF(512800)今日场内收盘价格刷新历史新高!

  从单周表现看,银行ETF(512800)标的中证银行指数累计上涨4.05%,显著跑赢同期三大指数表现。

  注:中证银行指数近5个完整年度涨跌幅为:2024年,34.71%;2023年,-7.27%;2022年,-8.78%;2021年,-4.41%;2020年,-4.23%。指数过往业绩不预示未来表现。

  海外不确定性持续演绎,在股市震荡加剧、债市利率下行的情况下,高股息、低波动的银行板块成为资金关注的“香饽饽”。

主力资金方面,本周银行板块连续5日获增仓,合计达130.56亿元,吸金额高居各行业(申万一级)断层首位,是排名第2的商贸零售两倍有余。险资方面,截至4月17日,年内险资合计举牌上市公司12次,其中银行是布局的重点方向,农业银行、邮储银行、招商银行、中信银行、杭州银行等多家上市银行被举牌。

  银行板块量价双升,究其原因,一方面,上市银行股息率较高,且总体而言公司治理健全,经营风格稳健,具有穿越周期的能力。另一方面是,现阶段上市银行估值总体较低,特别是受到外部冲击的情况下,银行股票的防御属性加上被低估的特征,配置价值突出。

  此外,高股息预期亦有望对银行板块股价形成保护。截至4月17日,银行ETF(512800)跟踪的中证银行指数股息率(近12个月)为6.18%,较国内10年期国债利率1.65%超额达4.53%。

  中泰证券表示,对等关税背景下,银行股红利属性凸显。政策宽松加码,内需领域政策可能对零售信贷需求有提振,降准降息降低银行资金成本。此外,一季度国债收益率上行的趋势面临边际变化,银行板块高股息的性价比提升。建议积极关注银行板块配置价值。

  顺势而起,攻守兼备!看好银行板块配置性价比的投资者可以关注银行ETF(512800)。银行ETF(512800)被动跟踪中证银行指数,成份股囊括A股42家上市银行,近三成仓位布局工商银行、农业银行、交通银行等国有大行,捕捉“高股息”主题机会;约七成仓位聚焦招商银行、兴业银行、江苏银行等高成长性股份行、城商行、农商行,是跟踪银行板块整体行情的高效投资工具。

  【多重积极因素提振,地产单周跑赢市场!机构:2025年房价有望达到长周期的底部】

  周五(4月18日),地产板块再度异动走强,龙头房企普遍上涨。代表A股龙头地产行情的中证800地产指数再度收涨近1%。热门成份股方面,滨江集团涨近4%,绿地控股涨超2%,陆家嘴、衢州发展、万科A、华发股份、上海临港等多股涨超1%。

  热门ETF方面,全市场唯一跟踪中证800地产指数的地产ETF(159707)午后强势拉升翻红,场内收涨0.8%。全天成交额超5500万元,交投继续活跃。资金顺势溢价抢筹,全天净申购2950万份!周度复盘来看,地产ETF(159707)周线斩获两连阳,向上突破20周线,或表明多头力量增强。

  周度复盘来看,连跌五周后,中证800地产指数斩获两连阳,单周涨幅为2.33%,跑赢上证指数(+1.19%)等市场大盘。综合市场信息看,地产板块当前积累了多重积极因素,一方面是从当前楼市数据分析看,房地产市场或现企稳迹象;另一方面,在提振内需的大背景下,地产有望迎新一轮政策周期。

  中信证券研报指出,一季度统计局数据表现稳健,严控增量取得成效,土地市场持续热销,但房价仍然还在下降。总体来看,我们认为房地产政策已经纳入扩大内需的框架,预计稳定房价的政策箭在弦上。我们认为2025年房价将有望达到长周期的底部,看好具备好运营、好开发和好资产的地产平台。

  光大证券表示,房地产是最大的内需,建议战略性布局地产链投资机会。以“我”为主背景下,期待地产政策进一步发力,房地产是最大的内需,后续政策或围绕收购存量商品房用作保障性住房、城市更新、城中村和危旧房改造、“好房子”供应、房贷利率、政策性金融工具等开展。

  估值层面上看,以央国企、优质房企为代表的龙头地产当前仍处估值低位。以地产ETF(159707)标的指数为例,中证800地产指数最新PB估值仅为0.7倍,处近10年约12%分位点,估值低位特征明显,修复空间或较大。华泰证券也指出,行业集中度加速提升,头部房企凭借“好信用、好城市、好产品”策略展现韧性,建议持续关注。

  布局央国企及优质房企,建议重点关注地产ETF(159707)。资料显示,地产ETF(159707)跟踪中证800地产指数,汇集市场13只头部优质房企,在投资方向上具有明显的头部集中度优势,前十大成份股权重超9成,央国企含量高!在行业出清大背景下,龙头地产或更具弹性!

  特别提醒:近期市场波动可能较大,短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资,高度注意仓位和风险管理。

  数据、图片来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:银行ETF被动跟踪中证银行指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布于2013.7.15;地产ETF被动跟踪中证800地产指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布于2012.12.21。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举,不作为任何个股推荐,不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,本公司亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件,了解基金的风险收益特征,选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。根据基金管理人的评估,银行ETF(512800)、地产ETF(159707)风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上的投资者,适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。销售机构(包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构)根据相关法律法规对以上基金进行风险评价,投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见,各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致,且基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收益情况,结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国证监会对以上基金的注册,并不表明其对该基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保证。基金投资须谨慎。

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