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皇后这份工作-会员价格调整分析:性价比之变
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皇后这份工作-会员价格调整分析:性价比之变

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  美国运通(AmericanExpress)首席财务官ChristopheLeCaillec表示,公司的富裕持卡人几乎没有表现出削减支出的迹象,同时,年轻客户推动了第一季度交易总量的增长。

  公司周四发布报告称,在此期间,美国运通卡的签账业务增长了6%,如果考虑到闰年的影响,调整后的增长率为7%。LeCaillec表示,这表明去年年底的消费增长势头延续到了2025年。

  LeCaillec称,尽管本月由于担心特朗普总统的关税政策会引发经济衰退,美股下跌,但以上趋势在4月份仍在持续。这使得第一季度的盈利超预期,意味着较富裕的客户群体或许能使该公司免受对关税和顽固通胀的担忧的影响。

  美国运通的增长来自年轻持卡人,千禧一代和Z世代会员在本季度的支出增加了14%。而X世代和婴儿潮一代的持卡人则更加谨慎,支出分别增长了5%和1%。

  LeCaillec表示,很难判断持卡人是否像摩根大通高管上周所说的那样,因为即将到来的关税而提前进行购买,从而人为地推高了购买量。但他补充说,一些小企业可能出于对关税会增加成本的担忧提前囤货。

  有一个特别的消费类别让LeCaillec相信这种消费趋势可能会持续下去。“餐厅消费增长了8%。这是一种最典型的可自由支配的消费,你无法提前消费,所以这确实是我们持卡人基础实力以及他们信心的一个很好的指标。”

  港股白酒第一股珍酒李渡日前披露了2024年财报,这也是其在港交所上市后交出的第二份年报,然而这一次的答卷不甚理想。在营收微增0.5%至70.67亿元的情况下,归母净利润却遭遇43.1%的断崖式下滑,仅为13.24亿元,呈现出增收不增利的态势。

  第一增长引擎销量连续4年下滑

  具体来看,2024年珍酒李渡营收出现明显失速,同比微增0.5%,营收增速创下近4年新低。而此前三年珍酒李渡一直处于高歌猛进的阶段,2021年-2023年,其营收增速分别为112.7%、14.8%、20.0%。

  影响营收增速急速下滑的一大原因是核心产品表现不佳。珍酒李渡旗下共有珍酒、李渡、湘窖、开口笑四大品牌,其中珍酒营收贡献占比超6成,是第一增长引擎。

  财报显示,作为公司核心收入来源的珍酒品牌2024年营收44.79亿元,同比下降2.3%,占总营收比重由也65.2%下滑至63.4%。事实上,珍酒的销量已经连续四年出现下滑。2021年至2024年,珍酒的销量分别为14761吨、12856吨、12630吨、12284吨。

  湘窖和开口笑同样表现不佳,营收分别下滑3.7%和12.3%。唯一亮点来自第二大增长引擎李渡,营收同比增长18.3%至13.13亿元。

  2024年,珍酒李渡毛利同比微增1.5%至41.43亿元,毛利率为58.6%,几乎与去年持平,但净利润同比下滑43.1%,这一剧烈波动还是引起了市场的普遍关注。

  对此珍酒李渡给出的解释是,主要受金融工具公允价值变动、股权激励费用等非经营性因素影响。

  据了解,2023年第四季度,珍酒李渡公布了一份股权激励计划,以1港元/股价格向718名核心员工授予1.17亿股,按授出日股价计算,该部分股权总价值达12.20亿港元。

  对于这一业绩表现,董事长吴向东似乎早有准备。“白酒行业很奇怪,赚几年钱,就会下行几年,我都经历了五六次了,习以为常。”他在二月底举行的贵州珍酒50周年庆典暨经销商大会上曾这样说。

  高端化承压,库存高企

  高端化一直是珍酒李渡想要转型的方向。从优化高档酒事业部的组织架构到为发展珍酒的主力单品“珍三十”而单独成立了珍三十事业部,珍酒李渡在高端化上不可谓不努力,吴向东此前还曾透露,珍酒将推出一款对标飞天茅台的年份酒,预计6月前上市。

  但从业绩表现来看,其高端化战略似乎受到了不小的阻力。2024年珍酒李渡高端产品营收17.09亿元,同比下滑10.82%;次高端产品营收29.95亿元,同比增长8.77%;中端及以下产品营收23.63亿元,同比微增0.87%。

  去年高端产品、次高端、中端及以下产品的营收占比分别约24%、42%、33%。次高端和中低端依然是营收主力。

  具体产品来看,李渡品牌营收虽实现了18.3%增长,但其千元价位带的核心产品仍难以突破茅台、五粮液等品牌壁垒。

  同时,珍酒李渡的库存风险不容忽视。2024年,公司存货达到75.03亿元,同比增长17.54%,与2020年的17.37亿元相比,激增332%。

  库存高企可能导致渠道利润压缩,进而影响厂商合作稳定性。虽然2024年珍酒李渡经销商数量增至7635家,但单店年均销售额降至92万元,终端动销效率持续承压。

  东吴证券给出的风险提示就提到,次高端价格及费用竞争加剧,渠道库存消化不及预期等。

  在全行业增速放缓、马太效应凸显的情况下,如何在保持战略定力的同时加速库存周转无疑是珍酒李渡面临的一大挑战。但持续优化产品矩阵,同时灵活调整渠道策略也正是破局之路。

  在3月业绩说明会上,吴向东表示,白酒行业已经触底,但是拐点难以精准预测,在存量竞争趋势下,品牌化、品质化,将是未来发展的核心要素。

  2025年4月18日,广州瑞立科密汽车电子股份有限公司(下称“瑞立科密”)迎来深交所上市审议的关键时刻。这家自称“商用车主动安全系统龙头”的企业,IPO进程却因信披矛盾、财务数据争议及关联交易疑云深陷舆论漩涡。从招股书低级错误到业绩“注水”质疑,从关联方利益输送到估值泡沫争议,瑞立科密的上市之路堪称一场“带病闯关”的

  信披质量如何?

  瑞立科密的招股书质量暴露了公司治理与中介机构执业能力的双重漏洞。核心问题集中在信披不实与数据矛盾:

  分红信息“消失”数据。

  2023年12月26日,瑞立科密披露的第一版招股书显示,2021年,该公司曾现金分红4100万元,而当期净利润为1.99亿元。2024年6月29日,瑞立科密披露的第二版招股书显示,2021—2023年,该公司的现金分红金额均为0元,并且在此后更新的招股书中,2021年现金分红均为0元。

  招股书低级错误频现,保荐机构中信证券执业质量受拷问。

  在最新招股书中,瑞立科密将“2024年12月31日”误写为“204.12.31”,且保荐人中信证券未发现该错误。此类低级失误暴露信披审核流于形式。

  在审核中心意见落实函中,深交所指出,瑞立科密在招股书“风险因素”部分,虽然对公司面临的风险进行了披露,但部分信息披露有待完善。深交所要求该公司结合实际情况,全面梳理风险披露情况,对风险因素进行定性、定量分析论证。

  此外,招股书数据疑似与官方口径存出入。

  2022年10月15日,瑞立科密在其官网发布题为《瑞立科密这十年》的文章,回顾了公司过去十年的发展成就。文章宣称:“从2012年近10万套的ABS产销量,到2022年预计实现产销量超200万套”。根据瑞立科密招股书(上会稿),2022年瑞立科密气压电控制动系统销量为59.21万套,液压电控制动系统销量为49.95万套,两者合计仅109.16万套,远低于官方宣传中“超200万套”的预期目标。

  业务模式隐忧:关联交易输血、业绩波动

  瑞立科密的业务增长背后,暗藏结构性风险与市场天花板:

  关联交易撑起半壁江山,独立性存疑:

  控股股东瑞立集团长期身兼第一大客户与供应商双重角色。2021-2023年,瑞立科密向瑞立集团采购金额占营业成本最高达12.88%,关联销售占比一度达27.8%。尽管2023年后瑞立集团退出前五大客户,但应收账款余额仍高达2.67亿元,占应收账款总额的39.21%,被质疑通过关联方虚增收入。

  商用车周期波动与业绩“过山车。公司核心产品气压电控系统高度依赖商用车市场,2022年因商用车销量暴跌31.14%,其收入锐减30.76%,净利润腰斩至0.97亿元。尽管2023年业绩反弹,但商用车年销量已从2020年峰值513万辆降至403万辆,行业天花板触手可及。值得一提的是,深交所多次发函要求瑞立科密量化分析原材料价格波动风险。公司最终补充披露:若芯片、铝锭涨价5%,毛利率将下降2.84%-2.06%。

  注:此文为AI工具生成,不构成任何投资建议。

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