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“人形机器人产业在未来数年乃至十年间,无疑将成为极具成长性的黄金赛道,蕴藏着巨大的发展潜力和投资机遇。”

随着公募基金一季报进入密集披露期,机构调仓路径逐渐明晰。据第一财经初步统计,在已披露季报的主动权益类基金中,超半数产品于一季度提升股票仓位,目前仓位在八成以上的产品占比达到四分之三,进攻性策略有所升温。

从持仓角度而言,基金经理一季度操作呈现鲜明的赛道特征,以人形机器人产业链为代表的科技赛道成为最大赢家,部分重仓产品实现规模与收益的双重跃升;同时也有重仓消费赛道的产品斩获超额收益。然而,随着二季度行情展开,一季度领涨的科技主题基金面临阶段性调整,而北交所主题与医药板块相关产品则接棒领跑。

“含科量”成业绩密码

据第一财经初步统计,截至4月21日,有1490只主动权益类产品(仅列举初始基金,下同)已经披露了最新一季报的情况。其中,有43%的基金产品的股票仓位在90%以上,还有超过三成产品的股票仓位在80%至90%之间,整体保持高仓位运作。在有近两期季报数据的主动权益产品里,有超过半数提高了股票仓位,进攻性有所增加。

在这些产品中,近四分之三的产品在一季度取得正收益,10只业绩超过30%。其中,表现最好的是鹏华碳中和主题A,单季度回报超过60%。这一业绩表现让该产品的规模(不同份额合并计算,下同)暴增至108.96亿元,较去年年底的10.35亿元增加近百亿元,增幅达到9.5倍以上。

凭借出色业绩展现出显著吸金效应的情况并非个例。平安先进制造主题A和永赢先进制造智选A也是类似情况。这两只产品在今年前三个月分别获得53.65%、52.32%的回报,前者从0.48亿元的迷你规模摇身一变达到13.21亿元,规模增幅超过26倍;后者则因“太受欢迎”,曾在今年2月暂停大额申购,但规模仍从数十亿元增至百亿规模,增幅超过5.5倍。

此外,广发成长领航一年持有A、华富科技动能A、长城久鑫A、万家北交所慧选两年定开A等7只产品的业绩表现也同样居前,单季度回报在30%以上,多数产品也凭借亮眼的业绩表现获得不同程度的净申购。

记者观察来看,“含科量”是此轮主动权益产品的最大业绩密码,上述业绩居前的产品大多重仓了科技股,如平安先进制造主题A、永赢先进制造智选A、华富科技动能A、长城久鑫A等多只产品都在季报中打出“明牌”:主要配置人形机器人方向。

具体而言,不少产品在一季度出现了明显的调仓举动。以华富科技动能A为例,其前十大重仓股中新进6只个股,且均为首次重仓,包括隆盛科技(300680.SZ)、美湖股份(603319.SH)、中鼎股份(000887.SZ)、银轮股份(002126.SZ)等汽车板块个股,还有瑞迪智驱(301596.SZ)、中大力德(002896.SZ)等机械设备个股。

不过,即使是同一方向,细分领域也有所区别。如平安先进制造主题A选择将仓位布局在感知类零部件、整机组装代工商、积极拓展机器人业务且估值相对偏低的公司等领域;而长城久鑫A的持仓则集中在机器人行业上游的核心零部件企业、关节模组及整机的集成商,这些企业分布在机械设备、汽车、电子、电力设备等多个行业。

除了押注科技赛道以外,也有基金经理选择另辟蹊径。以广发成长领航一年持有混合A为例,其基金经理吴远怡聚焦新消费板块诸如“谷子经济”、国潮等新业态等细分投资机会,该产品的前十大重仓股中有一半为港股,前两大重仓股分别是泡泡玛特(09992.HK)和老铺黄金(06181.HK),均属于可选消费类行业;第三大重仓股晶品特装(688084.SH)则属于军工领域;此外还有阿里巴巴、美图公司等个股。

二季度赛道有所调整

随着二季度市场行情转向,一季度领涨的科技赛道基金面临阶段性调整压力。Wind数据显示,截至4月18日,此前位居前三的鹏华碳中和主题A、平安先进制造主题A、永赢先进制造智选A本月以来的平均回撤超过12%。

与此同时,北交所主题和医药主题的相关产品则取而代之,业绩增长明显。例如,万家北交所慧选两年定开混合A本月以来增长11.96%,年内回报率增至48.39%;广发北交所精选两年定开混合A同样因月内11.25%的业绩表现排名大幅上升。

沉寂许久的医药主题产品也迎来复苏,尤其是创新药领域成为资金配置焦点。长城医药产业精选A今年以来的收益率为44.71%,永赢医药创新智选A的年内收益率则在35%以上。两只产品均聚焦在A股或港股的创新药领域的投资机会。

除了名字中带有“医药”相关字眼的产品外,平安核心优势A的年内收益率达到32.74%。从一季报来看,该产品前十大重仓股均为医药板块个股,重点同样聚焦在创新药这一细分方向,如艾力斯(688578.SH)、百利天恒(688506.SH)、泽璟制药(688266.SH)等。

整体而言,无论是当下面对调整的科技主题,还是后来居上的医药赛道,基金经理们对自己所跟踪的赛道仍抱有信心。

“人形机器人产业在未来数年乃至十年间,无疑将成为极具成长性的黄金赛道,蕴藏着巨大的发展潜力和投资机遇。”平安先进制造主题基金经理张荫先在季报中表示,人形机器人产业的发展轨迹将对标智能手机与电动汽车,而且持续周期会更长,赛道容量也更为庞大。

长城久鑫基金经理余欢在走访调研了多个地方的机器人本体企业和零部件公司后发现,行业发展方兴未艾,越来越多的地方政府开始大力支持机器人行业的发展,也有越来越多的企业开始涉足并重点布局机器人领域。

“因为相信,所以看见。对于这个从0到1发展的行业,我们预计今年会是量产元年。”余欢认为,今年很可能会看到一定数量的机器人在工厂落地,开始新的“进化”训练之旅,为未来的进一步放量做准备。

同时,上述基金经理也对赛道调整有所预期。张荫先认为,当前板块静态估值处于较高水平,短期涨幅较大可能会面临调整压力,波动率较大,这往往是成长性赛道投资过程中会面临的问题,希望投资者理性看待、分批投资。

短期业绩的反弹,是否意味着医药主题的机会已经来了?长城医药产业精选基金经理梁福睿认为,当前创新药个股的海外研发合作进展变化及报表改善均迎来奇点时刻,同时创新药政策端的确定性明显高于非创新药领域。永赢医药创新智选基金经理单林、储可凡也分析称,国产创新药正加速实现商业化成果转化与全球化布局,国家支持药械创新的方向依旧不变,创新药蕴含众多投资机会。

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