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  来源:国际金融报

  国内首家规模盈利的在线教育上市公司高途(GOTU.US),如今正面临盈利能力的严峻考验。

  根据最新披露的2024财年审计报告,2024年,高途实现营收45.4亿元,同比增长53.8%。然而,盈利指标却呈现断崖式下滑:净亏损从2023年同期的730万元暴增至10.49亿元(约合1.437亿美元),亏损增幅高达14270%。若以单季度来看,这已是该公司自2023年第三季度以来,连续第六个季度录得亏损。

  值得注意的是,高途管理层对2025年业绩持乐观态度,公司预计2025年第一季度营收将达14.08亿-14.28亿元,同比增长48.7%-50.8%,并表示“2025年第一季度实现全面盈利”。

  然而,这一乐观预测并未获得资本市场认可。截至目前,高途的总市值已缩水至7亿美元,与2021年1月的历史高点形成鲜明对比。彼时,高途股价曾一度冲高至149美元,市值突破370亿美元,如今市值仅剩巅峰时期的约2%。

  营销吞噬六成营收

  作为在线教育平台,2024年,高途营收同比增长53.8%至45.4亿元,较2023年不足30亿元的营收水平实现大幅跃升。然而,若将其置于行业坐标系中观察,高途的业绩表现仍与头部企业存在明显差距。以老牌教育巨头好未来(TAL.US)为例,其2024财年净营收达22.502亿美元(约合人民币162亿元),约为高途同期营收的3.6倍。

  高途的业务主要分为学习服务(包括非学科培训、传统学习服务以及大学生和成人教育服务)和智能学习内容及产品两大部分,其中学习服务贡献了超过95%的营收份额。

  具体来看,2024年,其非学科和传统业务贡献了大约35.53亿元的收入;大学生和成人教育业务的收入为8.39亿元;智能学习内容和产品的收入约为2亿元。

  尽管营收指标持续向好,但高途的净利润并未随之增长,反而亏损进一步扩大。公司管理层曾在业绩发布会上解释称,亏损增加的原因一方面在于对线下和留学服务的加大投资,虽然这对短期财务状况构成了压力,但长远来看是有利于公司发展的战略决策;另一方面,上半年市场机会的爆炸性增长导致资源配置不当,也是造成当前亏损的一个因素。

  近年来,随着“线上+线下”融合的教育OMO模式成为趋势,在线教育公司纷纷布局线下业务,高途也不例外。根据公开信息,截至2024年5月,高途已在全国11个城市设立了超过60个线下教学点,其中K9素养网点超过50个,涵盖高途青少成长中心、高途体育、高途编程等多个子品牌。

  然而,在最新的财报中,高途也提到,运营线下学习中心带来了新的风险和挑战,如前期资本投入大、设施维护成本高等问题,这些都可能对其利润率和现金流产生影响。

  获客成本高、流量贵、竞争激烈,早就成为在线教育行业的固有标签,当下高途正处于“烧钱换增长”的模式中,反映至财报上,公司巨额亏损与快速增长的成本费用和营销费用不无关系。

  首先是成本费用大幅增加。2024年,高途业务成本为14.55亿元,较上年同期的7.90亿元增加84.1%;其次是营业费用为42.81亿元,上年同期为23.20亿元,同比增加84.5%。其中,销售费用从上年同期的15.01亿元上升至29.64亿元,营收占比达到65.7%。

  然而,记者留意到,在小红书、新浪财经的黑猫投诉【下载黑猫投诉客户端】等社交和消费者服务平台上,关于消费者对高途的投诉不在少数。这些投诉主要集中在退款难、虚假宣传、诱导买课以及服务质量不达标等方面。

  AI能否成为第二增长曲线

  2025年是高途创立的第十一个年头。对于高途而言,过去的历程可谓跌宕起伏。

  2014年,在线教育热潮兴起,前新东方执行总裁陈向东创办了O2O教学平台跟谁学,定位为一个找好老师学习服务平台,也就是高途的前身。2017年,跟谁学聚焦K12(从幼儿园到高中,5-18岁)在线教育赛道;2019年,跟谁学成功登陆纽交所。和其他在线教育企业有些不同的是,跟谁学于上市前已经实现盈利。

  上市之后,跟谁学实现了迅猛的业绩增长,尤其是在2019年第四季度实现营业收入9.35亿元,同比激增超四倍,净利润也攀升至1.74亿元,同比增长更是超过六倍。相应地,跟谁学的股价也呈现出一路飙升的态势,从上市时的发行价10.5美元/股跃升至最高点的140.05美元/股,市值一度超越了新东方。

  然而,跟谁学持续增长的业绩和不断攀升的股价,也成为了做空机构关注的焦点。自2020年起,跟谁学频繁遭到做空机构的狙击,香橼资本、天蝎资本、浑水机构、灰熊研究等多家知名做空机构轮番上阵,对其进行了多达16次的做空,使其成为了当时中概股中被做空次数最多的中国公司。

  2021年是跟谁学发展历程中一个值得标注的重要节点。4月,跟谁学正式宣布将公司名称变更为“高途集团”。仅仅3个月后,“双减”政策出台,在线教育行业迎来了前所未有的转折点,面对这一变化,转向大学生和成人职业教育成为了在线教育公司的普遍选择,高途集团也不例外。自2021年第三季度起,高途集团开始将战略重心放在大学生和成人教育、非学科类辅导以及智能学习内容和产品等领域。高途官网显示,其产品覆盖了考研、青少素养、语言培训、职业资格培训、留学申请等。

  事实上,回顾高途自2021年转型以来的发展轨迹,除了深耕教育领域外,它还积极寻找新的增长点,如电商直播。2021年底,新东方将电商直播业务打造为第二增长曲线,为整个教育培训行业提供了一种全新的转型路径。受此启发,多家教育机构纷纷跟进,如豆神教育(维权)推出了豆神甄选,好未来上线学家优品(后更名为学而思优选)。在这样的浪潮下,高途集团也不甘落后,于2022年推出了直播带货平台——高途佳品。

  然而,东方甄选的成功模式并不易复制。从财报数据可见,2023年高途集团在高途佳品项目上录得应占亏损916.5万元,而整个2023年,高途集团净亏损为730万元。这意味着,高途佳品一定程度上成为了高途集团盈利道路上的拖累。

  2024年9月,高途佳品曾一度宣布停播,陈向东对此解释称,停播原因是营收未能达到预期,“我们做得没有那么好,(高途佳品)有几个月从商业上讲没法真正自负盈亏”。彼时,他提及,未来将对高途佳品的定位进行重新调整。

  直播带货难有起色之下,2023年初,以ChatGPT为代表的大模型成为炙手可热的概念,在这一年里,AI科技成为陈向东在公共场合发言的重要议题。2023年6月,高途九周年的内部讲话中,陈向东向全体员工清晰地阐述了公司的三大业务发展方向,分别是线上+线下+OMO业务、短视频直播业务(包括抖音和视频号)、ChatGPT+教育业务。

  三个月后,在2023财年第二季度财报的分析师会议上,陈向东进一步详述了公司对AI技术的具体布局:“随着人工智能技术在公司产品和服务各环节的落地,我们也不断提升前端教学,后端教研、客服、设计等团队的工作和服务效率,改善用户学习体验。”

  但此后一年多时间,无论是财报披露还是财报会议中,高途管理层鲜少提及公司在AI领域的投入与最新进展。直到在今年2月底的2024年第四季度财报会上,AI再次成为高途的核心叙事,陈向东更是明确表示“坚定拥抱AI战略”。

  值得注意的是,在发布2024财年经审计财务业绩当天,高途宣布任命从事智能科学计算理论方法与前沿交叉研究的专家孙浩担任公司董事,官方称,此举“彰显高途人工智能与科技战略迈向新高度”。

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