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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  欧洲央行行长拉加德表示,通胀回落“进展顺利”,同时警告称,高度不确定性使其不太可能就利率发出明确信号。

  “大多数核心通胀指标表明,通胀将持续稳定在我们的中期目标附近,”她周五表示。“展望未来,通胀料将徘徊在我们2%的目标附近。”

  她在国际货币基金组织(IMF)于华盛顿举行的春季会议上发表声明称,“特别是当冲击的规模和分布高度不确定时,我们无法通过承诺特定的利率路径来提供确定性”。

  在欧洲央行本轮第七次降息后,大多数决策者对之后的下一步行动保持谨慎,但也有一些人开始暗示,随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易政策对欧元区经济构成压力,可能需要采取更多宽松措施。与此同时,他们对通胀率今年将回到2%的信心也有所增强。

  根据调查得出的预估中值,定于下周公布的4月数据料将显示通胀率进一步回落至2.1%。与此同时,核心通胀率可能略有上升。

  投资者目前充分消化6月份再次降息的预期,并预计年内还会再降息一或两次。关键存款利率目前为2.25%,这个水平被视为大致中性的水平,既不会限制也不会刺激经济活动。

  “经济增长的下行风险已经增加,”拉加德说,并强调“全球贸易紧张局势显著升级”。

  不过她表示,“欧元区经济一直在增强抵御全球冲击的韧性”。

财联社4月25日讯(编辑刘晨实习生管育若)曾深陷恒大泥沼的盛京银行(2066.HK),一直努力在“去恒大化”,如今元气恢复如何?从其近日发布的2024年报可窥一斑。

截至2024年末,盛京银行总资产规模达到1.12万亿元,同比增长4%;发放贷款总额人民币5006亿元,同比增长4.8%;吸收存款总额人民币7806亿元,同比增长2.6%。资产规模显示有所扩张。

从收入看,其2024年实现营业收入85.8亿元,较上年减14.6%,首次跌破百亿元大关;归母净利润下滑15.21%至6.2亿元。其净息差从上年末的0.96%降到了0.80%,为历年来最低水平。与上年相比,盛京银行盈利不佳,但已经有所改善,一定程度显示出“去恒大化”的效果。

财联社据Wind数据统计,截至目前,盛京银行共有存续债券37只,规模226.50亿元,其中,同业存单116.5亿元。

利息净收入下降拆解

受宏观环境和市场因素影响,盛京银行去年的净息差进一步收窄,利息净收入下行。

年报显示,2024年盛京银行实现发放贷款和垫款利息收入247.42亿元,同比减少18.3%,占利息收入的比重为75.85%。去年其利息净收入为68.9亿元,同比下降22.33%。

利息净收入的下降,也导致净息差逐年收缩。截至2024年末,盛京银行净息差已经低至0.80%,跌下1%的关口,较2023年下降0.16个百分点。

据金融监管总局数据,2024年第四季度,商业银行净息差为1.52%,盛京银行较行业值低0.72个百分点。

根据“市场利率定价自律机制”发布的《合格审慎评估实施办法(2023年修订版)》的规定,商业银行净息差的最低标准是0.8%,这意味着盛京银行净息差已跌到最低标准。

从利差来看,2024年末,盛京银行的生息资产收益率3.81%,较2023年下降0.34个百分点。

“买债”大创收,投资净收益40.47亿,同比增幅166%

管理层在年报中解释收入下降原因称,主要是贷款市场报价利率(LPR)持续下调,市场利率下行,银行业净息差收窄。本行平衡风险和收益,进一步优化资产投向和业务结构,利息净收入同比减少;本行积极把握金融市场投资交易机会,债券投资收益增加,非利息净收入较上年实现有效增长。

年报显示,2024年,盛京银行实现投资净收益40.47亿元,同比增加25.27亿元,增幅166.2%,主要是报告期内处置债券资产净收益增加所致。

上述业绩表现,显示出盛京银行经过2023年一系列涉及恒大的处置和人事变动后,2024年可谓开启了新的一年,相比上年已有改善,但仍有待持续发力。

2023年11月,曾在中国银行任职的孙进正式出任盛京银行董事长。2024年初,盛京银行的董监高迎来大规模调整。恒大风波之后,新一代管理层仍面临不小的挑战。

  据统计,4月25日,截至发稿前,柳工、博亚精工、超声电子、凯龙股份等4家A股上市公司披露增持情况;美新科技、恒尚节能、江南化工、红旗连锁、衢州发展、沪硅产业、映翰通等7家公司披露减持情况。

 

  巴克莱银行对公务机经纪交易商和金融家的最新调查显示,随着消费者信心暴跌,商业航空旅行需求减少,就连富豪旅客也在减少出行。

  该调查于4月9日至15日进行,有65名受访者。调查显示,自3月以来,客户购买公务机的兴趣下降了49%。

  该调查使用了包括12个月前景和价格等五项指标来评估市场状况。从3月中旬到4月中旬,除了一项指标(库存水平)外,其他所有指标都有所下降。因此,综合得分从52降至40。

  最近一次调查中记录的降幅为23%,巴克莱银行分析师DavidStrauss表示,他预计市场情绪会减弱,但没想到降幅会如此之大。

  据巴克莱银行称,40分出头的综合得分表明市场正在放缓。

  该指标与飞机制造商的订单出货比相关,这是衡量其财务状况的关键指标。Strauss表示,40分的得分表明,制造商新订单的美元价值比其目前正在履行的订单落后约10%。

  调查受访者告诉巴克莱银行,客户因担心关税不仅会对飞机市场,还会对他们的运营业务产生影响,所以暂停了购买计划。

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