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  来源:墨腾创投

  在茶姬在美国上市之际,曾经被瑞幸咖啡当成头号竞争对手的库迪似乎势能出现了问题。国内的情况可能我们不是很熟悉,至少在出海这条赛道上,瑞幸和茶姬通过不同的方式都在新加坡和马来西亚以外的东南亚落子的同时,也把卯劲放在了美国市场。

  2023年底,当库迪在新加坡开出了第一家店时,墨腾曾经做了一个投票,看看大家对库迪在新加坡前景的看法。当时,投“看好”的朋友占比并不大。 

  库迪在新加坡的第一家店,正好开在了市中心一家地下商场-CityLink城联广场的flashcoffee的“遗址”上。FlashCoffee是当年由RocketInternet投资、前FoodpandaCMO等一众德国人创立的在东南亚加港台地区复制瑞幸的连锁咖啡品牌-目前已经一蹶不振。

  去年宣布退出新加坡(和其他大部分)市场后,FlashCoffee号称把中心放到了印尼-并且任命因为薛定谔女友把Foodpanda和Grab在谈并购的消息放到Instagram而被解职的前Foodpanda亚太区CEOJakobAngele担任主席。

  Jakob曾今在Foodpanda呆了十二年,以控制狂(micromanagement)著称。他在位的时候也见证了东南亚外卖市场从无到有、Foodpanda一开始占据优势的市场一步步被Grab蚕食、以及和韩国最大的外卖平台Baemin合并后把空降来新加坡的韩国管理层斗出去等历史。

  扯远了,说回库迪-当时库迪刚在新加坡开幕的时候,我们是这样的判断和预期的:

  很显然,和正规军作战、自营和肯砸钱的瑞幸相比-库迪在新加坡后来完全没有章法的打法应该和我们当年的预期很不一样。

  一位本地餐饮连锁的元老曾经和我们说-看这个选人、选址和重心放在积极发展加盟商等,库迪应该没打算在新加坡认真做。当时我们还和他说-那要割韭菜的话也得先把版型打好啊,他加了一句:没戏的,新加坡的加盟商也都不傻,如果瑞幸要开放加盟的话会挤破头的。

  不出所料,CityLink的第一家门店虽然也学习了瑞幸在新加坡的下载app就可以不到一块钱新币买一杯咖啡(星巴克要6-8块),但一直冷冷清清。开业不久就放弃了只能线上下单,也开始接受现金和直接转账了。

  开业第一周的“盛况”

  而最近,这家门店已经不见了,取而代之的是正在装修的“一点点”。话说回来,Lazada总部楼下那家一点点生意真是好-即使在新加坡奶茶行业竞争这么激烈的情况下。

  不只是CityLink,库迪在新加坡市中心的另外两家门店:小印度TekkaPlace和政府大厦的两家门店也已经永久关闭了:

  库迪在新加坡还有三家门店还在运营。

  对于CityLink、小印度和政府大厦的这三家店选址,当时墨腾在新加坡做连锁餐饮零售的朋友们都觉得很奇怪-都没有什么人流,而且小印度那家门口还在修路,没个几年还修不好;CityLink的那家旁边的星巴克几乎是新加坡最安静的星巴克,工作日的午饭后也几乎从来没有满座过。

  看到星巴克镜子反光的工地没

  当时,大家的猜测要么是库迪在新加坡不会做(但是这个不太可能,蜜雪、瑞幸、印尼来的Fore和Kenangan、甚至奈雪和喜茶选址都不会这么糟糕),要么是没打算认真做,要么真的是没钱。不过也有一位国内品牌的代理说有可能是想拿优质的商场里好的地段房东不让他拿。

  与此同时,瑞幸继续在市场不大的新加坡开疆拓土。上个月还发了一个公关说以开店总数达到60家来庆祝在新加坡开业两周年。

  而通过直营回到新加坡的霸王茶姬也借着国内的品牌势能和全方位的打法,很快已经在新加坡的主流商圈开出了十多家店。

  有人说过,霸王茶姬是最像瑞幸的奶茶品牌-这是从数字化运营和核心产品的维度。毕竟,最终最主流的用户喝的不是美式或者纯茶,而是带着咖啡因和糖奶的外围饮料。

  两家现在应该都是卯足了劲要做美国市场。尤其是瑞幸,没有了库迪的威胁后,应该可以不用急,用充足的时间来准备。

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