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4月22日,牛栏山白酒的母公司顺鑫农业(000860)公布2024年年报。

当年,公司营业收入为91.3亿元,同比下降13.8%;归母净利润实现2.3亿元,相比2023年的亏损3亿元成功扭亏。其中第四季度,公司营业收入为18.1亿元,同比上升1.3%;归母净利润自上年同期亏损331万元变为亏损1.5亿元,亏损额进一步扩大。

合同负债腰斩

2025年一季度,公司营业收入为32.6亿元,同比下降19.7%;归母净利润为2.8亿元,同比下降37.3%;经营现金流净额为-7.04亿元,同比下降58.5%。

一季度囊括春节旺季,比较过去,一季度的盈利往往够顺鑫农业“吃”一年。例如,2024年一季度归母净利润实现4.5亿元,接连三个季度亏损2800万元、4051万元及1.5亿元。

到了2025年一季度,顺鑫农业经营活动现金流净额-7亿元,与上年同期相比净流出扩大58.5%。主要由于公司销售商品收到现金减少,其应收票据和应收账款分别增加1.2亿元、1174万元,同比增长52.7%及58.3%。

《财中社》注意到,作为盈利的“蓄水池”,顺鑫农业合同负债急剧下滑,合同负债代表的是经销商向公司预付的订单款项。截至2025年一季度末,公司合同负债科目仅余3.8亿元,比年初减少13.8亿元。顺鑫农业解释称,主要是由于公司本报告期将预收货款结转确认收入所致。与2024年一季度末的8.4亿元相比,今年一季度合同负债也大幅缩水了54.8%。

再看2024全年,顺鑫农业的合同负债科目也在同比下滑。2024年末,公司合同负债17.6亿元,同比下滑20%。实际上,近年来公司合同负债年年缩水,2022-2023年末分别为38.7亿元及22亿元。当然,这也与公司2023年底剥离房地产业务有一定关系。

2024年,公司经销渠道收入70亿元,经销商数量460家,单个经销商年收入1523万元,与2022年经销渠道收入81亿元、经销商年贡献1832万元相比,单个经销商每年少贡献收入309万元。

经销商贡献下滑的同时,顺鑫农业的产能自然也在减少。2024年,牛栏山白酒的产能37.9万千升,其产能利用率是45.8%,而2021年其产能利用率高达78.3%,三年间产能利用率大幅下滑。

高端化转型不畅

牛栏山二锅头是一款“国民酒”,旗下核心两款光瓶酒产品是牛栏山陈酿、牛栏山金标陈酿,即打造以白牛二和金标为核心的光瓶酒“双轮驱动”战略。牛栏山陈酿是公司核心大单品,售价在15-20元区间,长期占据低端光瓶酒市场头部地位,是典型的“销冠”;而金标则是其冲击中高端化转型代表作,单瓶售价约38元。

2024年,500ml牛栏山陈酿、牛栏山金标陈酿销售量分别为24万千升、5238千升,同比分别下滑3%及19.8%。特别是牛栏山陈酿酒的库存量还同比增长254.6%至5.4万千升。顺鑫农业的主业牛栏山二锅头有点儿卖不动了。

金标代表着牛栏山近年来价格向上的转型战略。在2023年投资者关系中,顺鑫农业提到,公司以经典二锅头的升级为着力点,推进品牌一体化运作,决胜次高端市场。在长三角市场,公司以“金标陈酿”市场拓展为抓手,通过扁平化市场渠道管理,深化市场终端的网络建设,报告期内金标酒在重点市场终端铺货率继续上升。

事与愿违,尽管金标铺货率上升,但销售却愈发疲软。金标酒自从2021年上市以来,2022年销售量达到顶峰1.1万千升,随后2023年近乎腰斩到6531千升,在2024年销售量又继续下降近20%。

顺鑫农业2024年实现扭亏为盈,一方面是剥离其亏损不断的房地产业务轻装上阵,另一方面则是降低费用节省成本,依靠经典产品牛栏山陈酿酒等低端酒以量换价。

2023年11月,顺鑫农业以22.6亿元对价,将亏损连连的房地产子公司北京顺鑫佳宇房地产开发有限公司剥离出去。2022-2023年,顺鑫农业分别亏损了6.9亿元、3亿元,主要受地产业务拖累影响。近几年,地产业务子公司少则亏损逾3亿元,多则超过8亿元,始终是顺鑫农业的盈利拖累。

此外,从报表上来看,费用压缩对公司扭亏为盈的贡献相当大。2024年,公司销售费用及管理费用分别为8.74亿元及7.54亿元,相比上一年的12.05亿元和8.56亿元,分别节省3.31亿元及1.02亿元,合计减少4.33亿元,而公司当年归母净利润也仅有2.3亿元。

《财中社》发现,毛利率最低的低档酒贡献了顺鑫农业的白酒唯一增量,2024年,低档酒实现49.7亿元营收,同比增长5.1%,而中高档酒的收入均同比下滑。

尽管剥离亏损的房地产业务,但顺鑫农业的未来发展仍充满挑战。

(文章来源:财中社)

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