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  来源:金十数据

  受困的美股多头,终于迎来一丝来自“知情人”的鼓舞。

  在标普500指数3月下跌之际,公司内部人士,也就是企业高管和董事们,以16个月来最快的速度买入自家公司的股票。而随着特朗普总统宣布全球关税政策后市场进一步下挫,这股“扫货”潮依旧在持续。

  据华盛顿服务公司(WashingtonService)统计,仅4月前两周,就有约180位内部人士出手买入了本公司股票,使得内部人买卖比率升至0.40,接近2023年末以来的最高水平。虽然高管买入行为并不总是直接反映市场表现,但这种密集买入还是释放出一个信号:他们对公司前景充满信心,而这对经历数周抛售的投资者来说,正是他们急需的安慰剂。

  “这是一个积极的信号,”AdvisorsAssetManagement的首席投资策略师MattLloyd表示,

  “眼下投资者还深陷负面情绪的反馈循环中,主要是因为贸易和经济的不确定性。在市场努力站稳脚跟的过程中,这种买入趋势能否持续就显得至关重要。”高管的乐观和市场的悲观形成鲜明对比

  企业高管信心回暖,但市场整体氛围却依旧乌云密布。根据美银全球基金经理的最新调查,82%的受访者预计全球经济将恶化,是30年来最悲观的一次。更有创纪录的受访者计划减少对美股的配置。

  投资者眼下要面对的不仅是美联储抗通胀带来的高利率,还有因贸易战升温导致的全球衰退风险。EPWealthAdvisors的投资组合策略总监AdamPhillips警告称,虽然内部人买股是个积极信号,但也不能高估这个趋势的指向意义。

  “很多公司目前都像蒙着眼飞行,仍在等待贸易政策的明朗。”“水晶球”再现?高管买卖曾准确踩点

  从历史上看,企业高管的买卖动向确实具备前瞻性。例如2015年8月和2018年末,内部人买入激增,分别预示着市场即将触底或正值底部。2020年3月疫情期间的暴跌中,内部人再次成功捕捉到“抄底”时机。

  由于企业高管通常将持股当作现金流来源,正常情况下,卖出行为会远多于买入。因此当内部人罕见集中买入时,往往是市场价格极具吸引力的信号。

  今年年初也出现类似情况:标普500在2月中旬见顶,而企业高管早在1月大举抛售股票,且抛售力度之大前所未见。进入1月底后他们又迅速调转方向,开始回补。

  现在,银行数据显示,企业手中的现金水平录得自疫情初期以来最大两个月增幅,这也为后续的股市反弹提供了弹药。PlurimiWealth的首席投资官PatrickArmstrong指出,这一轮市场调整其实正是加仓的好时机。

  “内部人抢着买自家公司股票,现金水平上升,市场情绪却极端悲观——这三者构成一个明显的早期信号:市场的恐慌情绪正在让股票重新变得有吸引力。”

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