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桃儿和两个师父:的生态美味
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桃儿和两个师父:的生态美味

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  来源:金十

  美联储主席鲍威尔在几个月来巧妙地避免了与美国总统特朗普的对抗之后,正在对他进行反击。

  在当地时间周三的问答环节中,鲍威尔将混乱实施的关税描绘成明显不利于经济的行为,抨击了政府效率部采取的方法,并就他为何认为自己能够经受住特朗普解雇他的任何企图进行了法律辩护。

  在人们对美联储独立性的担忧不断升温之际,鲍威尔表明自己将专注于央行的核心目标,并将为保持这一目标而奋斗,这对我们大家都是一件好事。

  让我们从鲍威尔捍卫美联储独立性开始说起。

  鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部说:“我们的独立性是一个法律问题,”他明确反驳了一位经常试图在社交媒体上欺压央行,并已经开始试探其他机构独立性的总统。

  在他发表这番言论之前,最高法院首席大法官约翰-罗伯茨(JohnRoberts)允许特朗普继续解雇其他机构的高级官员——一些人认为,这种情况为特朗普能否解雇或降职鲍威尔这一更受市场关注的争论埋下了伏笔。他说,他不认为这种案例会适用于美联储,他永远不会向外部势力低头。

  鲍威尔说:“我们绝不会受到任何政治压力的影响。人们想说什么就说什么,这很好。这不是问题。但我们将严格按照自己的意愿行事,不考虑政治或任何其他外在因素。”

  在与前印度央行行长拉古拉姆-拉詹(RaghuramRajan)的谈话中,鲍威尔保持了冷静,没有点名批评特朗普。但他的直言不讳显然与这位央行行长的做法大相径庭,因为这位央行行长基本上避免对白宫的政策发表评论,在受到特朗普的公开攻击时也是睁一只眼闭一只眼。

  在鲍威尔发表这番言论的同时,对美联储独立性的担忧正开始微妙地蔓延到市场讨论中。

  此外,特朗普的贸易政策也有可能让美联储陷入一种不可能胜任的境地——基本上是要试图同时控制其稳定物价和劳动力市场任务所面临的风险。

  鲍威尔毫不讳言不断变化的关税计划可能会将美国的进口关税推向一个世纪以来的最高点——这取决于你决定在一周中的哪一天计算这些数字。他说,如果未来不能恢复明朗,企业和投资者可能会撤资。

  他说:“如果美国今后成为一个结构性风险较高的司法管辖区,这将降低我们作为司法管辖区的吸引力。我们现在还不知道,但我认为这就是影响。”

  他还担心,削减科研经费可能会“对经济增长、生产力、健康以及各种事情产生影响”。

  他很清楚关税给美联储带来的束缚。他说:“(政策)的影响很可能使我们偏离我们的目标。随着经济增长放缓,失业率很可能会上升,而随着关税的征收和部分关税由公众支付,通胀率很可能会上升。因此,这种可能性很大。”

  他说,美联储的“义务”是保持较长期的价格预期。经济学家倾向于认为,通胀预期是一种自我实现的预言。

  鲍威尔还放松了他一贯避免对财政政策发表评论的承诺,对政府效率部提出了等同于公然批评的评论,该部门是特朗普捐赠人埃隆-马斯克(ElonMusk)的标志性削减成本措施的象征,最终成为了文化战争和解决党派不满的工具,而不是精简预算的工具。

  正如鲍威尔正确指出的那样,社会保障、医疗保险和医疗补助在预算中占据了压倒性且不断增长的份额,只有通过改革福利,任何政府才能在支出方面取得有意义的进展。

  鲍威尔说:“当人们专注于削减国内开支时,他们实际上并没有在解决问题。国内自由支配支出(占联邦支出的百分比)已经在下降。我喜欢提出这一点,因为政客们提供的对话很多都是关于国内自由支配支出的,而这并不是问题所在。”

  最后,我认为鲍威尔的肆无忌惮将被证明是经济和市场在巨大的决策动荡时期的一种资产。

  周三,鲍威尔的讲话似乎加深了标普500指数的跌幅,一些交易员关注他对降息以应对金融环境收紧的谨慎态度,这让人有些难以理解。

  从中期来看,投资者需要知道美国的央行仍然致力于实现最大限度就业和稳定物价的目标,即使它需要为其开展工作的能力而战。到目前为止,市场波动并不属于这两种情况。

  以上内容来自乔纳森-列文(JonathanLevin),他是一位专注于美国市场和经济的专栏作家。此前,他曾在美国、巴西和墨西哥担任彭博社记者。他是特许金融分析师。

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