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男女午夜精华液-探讨当下热门话题,揭示真实生活背后的故事与思考

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  证券时报记者吴琦

  2025年基金一季报进入披露高峰期。基金经理的调仓换股路径逐渐浮出水面。截至4月20日,招商基金、鹏华基金、银华基金等42家基金公司旗下近千只基金已率先披露2025年基金一季报。一季度,AI领域等新兴行业产品热度持久,对经济活跃度有所提振,中国资产整体表现活跃,基金经理大幅提升持仓“含科量”。

  Wind数据显示,平安先进制造主题、华富科技动能、长城久鑫、万家行业优选、中欧智能制造等一批绩优基金的一季报密集亮相,上述基金在今年一季度均取得25%以上正收益。

  无一例外,上述业绩优异的基金均重仓了科技股。人工智能、人形机器人、半导体等科技股扎堆的主题板块获基金密集持有。

  平安先进制造主题、华富科技动能、长城久鑫等主要配置了人形机器人方向。平安先进制造主题基金经理张荫先表示,一季度主要配置维持在人形机器人方向,相信人形机器人持续周期会更长,赛道容量也更为庞大,力求深度参与人形机器人产业的高速成长。

  中欧智能制造、金信精选成长等配置了半导体方向。金信精选成长基金经理孔学兵在一季报中表示,国产半导体正加速从落后追赶走向突破引领,相关领域可能蕴含较多的战略性机遇,值得布局守候。

  重仓股囊括人工智能、人形机器人和半导体概念股的万家行业优选基金一季度取得26.88%正收益,一季度末重仓持有深信服、瑞芯微、寒武纪、绿的谐波、圣邦股份等公司,并新进了格科微。

  绩优基金因业绩表现较好获得资金青睐。平安先进制造主题、华富科技动能、长城久鑫、中欧智能制造等在一季度均获投资者不同程度净申购。

  值得注意的是,今年一季度市场表现结构分化,部分科技赛道成交量拥挤。中欧智能制造基金经理邵洁指出,经过去年四季度和今年一季度的涨幅后,TMT行业整体市净率估值已达历史中位数水平,后续需观测推理落地的速度和力度,若推理应用或训练大模型的进展不达预期,科技股或将随之波动。

  展望二季度,基金经理依旧看好科技板块。银华基金港股科技30ETF基金经理李宜璇认为,经济周期的回落与经济的新旧更替正同步发生,在此进程中,新的产业链条正逐步取代旧产业,成为国民经济主体支柱。

  本版导读

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蒙娜丽莎(002918.SZ)已经连续三年业绩下滑。继2021年净利润下滑44%、2022年下滑221%之后,2024年蒙娜丽莎营收46.31亿元,同比下滑22%;归属净利润1.25亿元,同比下滑53%。

房地产行业下行继续、陶瓷产业价格战内卷持续升级,蒙娜丽莎正和行业一起面临前所未有的严峻挑战。

产能过剩

主要用于建筑物装修的陶瓷作为房地产下游,市场需求深受房地产周期影响。根据中国建筑卫生陶瓷协会统计,2024年,全国陶瓷砖产量为59.1亿平方米,较2023年下降12.18%。

产能利用率方面,全国陶瓷砖年产能122亿平方米,实际产量在60亿平方米左右,产能利用率不足50%,属于“严重过剩”级别。各生产线出现频繁开停局面,生产周期缩短,部分产区甚至出现年初开窑晚,年末停窑早的现象。

随着需求下滑,陶瓷市场竞争进一步加剧。根据广东陶瓷协会公布的数据,2024年前11个月全国陶瓷砖产量75.2亿㎡,同比下降2.8%;全国卫生陶瓷产量1.39亿件,同比下降1.2%。产量下滑,价格战则进入白热化阶段。前11个月,全国建筑卫生陶瓷企业经营的主要业务收入2871亿元,同比下降12.8%;利润总额138.2亿元,同比下降26.2%。

应收款项抵房的暗雷

2017年12月在深交所上市的蒙娜丽莎是从集体所有制企业转制而来,后经股改整体变更为股份有限公司。公司主要从事建筑陶瓷产品研发、生产和销售,拥有“蒙娜丽莎”、“QD”、“美尔奇”三个品牌,主要产品可分为陶瓷砖、陶瓷板、岩板、瓷艺,销售渠道以国内市场为主,国际市场为辅。

蒙娜丽莎目前有四个生产基地,主要分布在广东佛山、广东清远、广西藤县、江西高安。公司以“大瓷砖、大建材、大家居”为发展战略,是陶瓷大板、岩板的开拓者,属行业头部品牌。不过,由于陶瓷行业门槛不高,公司2024年产量约为1.1亿平方米,市占率较低。

雪上加霜的是,上游危机已经波及下游,蒙娜丽莎也陷入信用危机。受房地产客户(主要为恒大、融创等)债务违约影响,公司2022年计提信用减值损失5.69亿元,其中主要为坏账准备。

需要注意的是,蒙娜丽莎手中还有应收款项抵房的“暗雷”。截至2024年8月12日,公司与房地产公司签订以房抵债协议金额为13.25亿元。此外,公司还有8.92亿元应收账款未收回。2024年公司仅计提坏账损失1.18亿元,未来不排除还有进一步减值的风险。

为了要回工程款,蒙娜丽莎甚至和客户对簿公堂。截至2月28日,除已披露的诉讼、仲裁事项外,蒙娜丽莎及子公司新增累计发生的诉讼、仲裁事项涉案金额合计为3.79亿元,占公司最近一期经审计净资产的10.97%。其中主要为公司作为原告涉及的诉讼、仲裁,合计金额为3.71亿元,主要系公司的应收款项回收。

蒙娜丽莎此前表示开始减少部分经营风险较大的房地产客户的销售规模,同时放弃了部分账期长、收款风险大、毛利水平低的工程订单。然而线下经销商方面,公司直言2024年经销商开拓情况和专卖店新增情况不如往年,经销网络开拓难度非常大,经销客户新建专卖店投入比较谨慎,也反映了大家对未来信心问题。

通过净利润率也可以看出蒙娜丽莎的业务陷入困境。2024年公司净利润率为2.7%,创出上市以来新低(不包括2022年因上游债务违约导致的亏损);毛利率为27.32%,创出上市以来第二低。

缺钱的恶性循环

工程核心业务缩减、线下消费端拓展不顺、债务难以收回,蒙娜丽莎自身也陷入了债务泥潭中。截至2024年底公司披露的资产负债率达52.59%,流动比率和速动比率分别为1.23和0.87,负债压力较大。

截至2024年末,蒙娜丽莎有息负债高达19.06亿元,占公司归母净资产的57%。其中一年内到期的非流动负债为4.51亿元,短期借款2.79亿元,长期借款8.59亿元,应付债券3.17亿元。

此外,蒙娜丽莎还有对外担保的隐形债务。截至2024年底,公司及控股子公司对外实际担保余额为3.67亿元,占公司2023年度经审计净资产的10.61%,均为公司对子公司提供的担保。

更令人担心的是,蒙娜丽莎现金流问题还在加剧。截至2024年底,公司应收账款周转率为6.14,创出历史第二低。应收账款周转率低加剧了坏账风险,再叠加行业产能过剩危机,使得蒙娜丽莎陷入了缺钱—难卖货—更缺钱的恶性循环中。

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