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  欧股从复活节假期中回归,追赶前一日华尔街的跌势,而美国股市有望从周一的下跌中反弹,投资者正紧张观望与印度的贸易谈判进展以及特斯拉即将公布的财报。同时,国际金价首次突破3500美元。

  截至发稿,道指期货涨0.81%,标普500指数期货涨0.79%,纳指期货涨0.89%。

  德国DAX指数跌0.51%,英国富时100指数跌0.34%,法国CAC40指数跌0.10%,欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.30%。

  摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)世界股票指数当日小幅下跌,不足0.1%。

  在欧洲,复活节假期后恢复交易的泛欧斯托克600指数下跌,对美国关裞的担忧让投资者从复活节周末回来时感到紧张。诺和诺德股价暴跌近10%,因市场担忧其将面临来自礼来公司(EliLilly)一款实验性减肥药的激烈竞争。

  在特朗普再次批评鲍威尔迫使美联储迅速降息后,本周开始的情况令人沮丧。

  “资金从美国股票基金流入亚洲和欧洲股票基金。因此,相对而言,欧洲市场比美国市场更加坚挺,”IG集团高级技术分析师AxelRudolph表示,“但是,他们仍然会受到这种负面情绪的影响,这种情绪是全球性的,所以我对今天上午早些时候欧股低开并不感到惊讶。”

  华尔街有望扳回部分跌幅。标普500指数期货在早盘交易中上涨0.8%,但华尔街的讨论仍聚焦于白宫可能试图撤换美联储主席鲍威尔所带来的影响。美元和美债走势趋稳。

  特朗普又炮轰鲍威尔

  特朗普周一在社交媒体上发文,加大了对美联储主席鲍威尔不降息的批评力度,称其为“大输家”,引发了人们对总统对美联储影响力的担忧。美股周一下跌约2.4%,美元跌至三年来的最低点。美国国债大跌,收益率上升,因为交易员担心政府可能会试图用降息的人取代鲍威尔。

  特朗普上周表示,他相信如果特朗普要求鲍威尔辞职,他会辞职,尽管鲍威尔本人表示不会辞职。目前尚不清楚特朗普是否有权解雇鲍威尔,尽管有关特朗普不相关解雇的诉讼正在被视为可能的代理。

  特朗普可能准备解雇鲍威尔的担忧,加剧了本就因关裞政策而动荡不安的市场情绪。特朗普的政策以及对美联储的频繁攻击,迫使投资者重新审视美元和美国国债作为避险资产的地位。

  纽约梅隆银行策略师JohnVelis表示:“随着政府不断加大对美联储降息的言语施压,并且市场正愈发讨论撤换美联储主席的可能性,我们预计海外投资者不会急于回流美国市场。美元和美债的避险属性正受到越来越多的质疑。”

  CityIndex高级市场分析师FionaCincotta表示:“市场情绪非常紧张,任何负面情绪或担忧都会被放大或夸大。投资者普遍对贸易战感到焦虑,而特朗普与鲍威尔之间的对抗进一步加剧了这种情绪。”

  美元避险地位被挑战

  近期持续上升的美国国债收益率在周一早盘开始趋稳,美国10年期国债收益率交投在4.4125%。

  美元指数当日徘徊在98.35左右,此前在周一曾跌至自2022年3月以来的最低点。Pepperstone经纪公司研究策略师QuasarElizundia指出:“美联储的独立性是美元信誉的基石。美元作为终极避险资产的地位,已不再理所当然,而是正在被现实所挑战。”

  日元表现强劲,因市场认为日本央行将继续加息,日元兑美元汇率突破140,为去年9月以来首次。欧元小幅下跌,至1.150美元。

  美国没搞定日本?

  贸易局势方面,日本将派出一个高级代表团,向中国递交首相石破茂的亲笔信。此前中国警告其他国家不要与美国达成损害中国利益的协议。

  美国方面表示,副总统J.D.万斯与印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在周一的会谈后,两国在达成双边贸易协议方面取得了“重大进展”。而泰国方面称,原定于本周举行的部长级贸易谈判因故推迟,该国正寻求特朗普暂缓对其商品征收36%关裞。

  forexlive指出,随着特朗普关裞政策持续实施,混乱的局面正在与日俱增。本应是这场关裞战争中最容易解决的战役——对日本的施压,如今看起来也变成一场不确定的赌局。早期的迹象就已经显现,尤其是特朗普本人与日方在沟通上的明显差异。现在看来,根本不存在所谓的“轻松交易”。

  尽管白宫正在就多个贸易协议进行谈判,或即将展开对话,但市场普遍认为短期内难以达成协议。摩根大通的分析师指出,一项平均贸易协定需要18个月谈判,45个月实施。他们在报告中写道:“我们重申观点:如果现行政策不发生改变,美国在2025年陷入衰退的概率高达90%。”

  IGAsia市场策略师JunRongYeap写道:“市场的乐观情绪正在消退,投资者或许开始为贸易谈判结果不如预期做准备。谈判可能会拖得更久。”

  黄金短暂突破3500

  大宗商品方面,美元疲软,加上避险需求的增加,推动金价创下新高,一度触及3,500.05美元,随后小幅回落至约3,455美元,但当日整体仍上涨。

  forexlive指出,对美元的信心正在流失,这种局面持续的时间越长,黄金就越能从中受益——因为目前没有更好的替代品。甚至连美国国债也不再是安全的避风港,30年期美债收益率已经飙升至4.91%。

  forexlive指出,黄金与SPDR黄金ETF持仓对比图表显示,黄金当日再次上涨近2%,目前价格在3,485美元附近,看起来极有可能在本周彻底站上3,500美元关口。就像很难准确判断一个下跌市场的底部一样,在当前这种情况下也很难判断黄金的顶部在哪里。尤其是当这么多利多因素正同时发挥作用,共同支撑金价的情况下,黄金的上涨趋势显得更为强劲。

  原油价格上涨,部分由于空头回补,但市场对美国关裞可能抑制燃料需求仍感担忧。布伦特原油价格约为每桶66美元,WTI原油价格约为63美元。

  科技巨头财报密集来袭!揭示美股已“触底”?

  本周,超百家标普500指数成分股公司即将公布第一季度财报。在特朗普政府政策不断变动的背景下,投资者将密切关注各公司的业绩展望。其中,科技股成为焦点。

  在关裞引发的市场下跌潮中,科技股领跌市场,“七巨头”股价,较近期52周高点均已下跌23%或更多。鉴于过去一个月市场已大幅下挫,多位华尔街策略师指出,观察大型公司财报发布次日的股价反应,将成为判断市场是否触底的关键信号。

  花旗股票策略师克罗纳特在财报季来临前给客户的报告中写道:“第一季度财报季的重要性,在于当企业管理层开始解读关裞影响时,能让我们看清个股价格中已反映了哪些信息。”

  焦点个股

  3M盘前一度下挫2%,之后逆转跌势,现涨近3%,该公司维持业绩预期,同时警告关裞风险。

  洛克希德马丁股价盘前上涨1.7%,第一季度营业利润超过预期。

  金佰利盘前下跌3%,下调年度利润预期。

  理想汽车盘前涨超2%理想L6智驾焕新版即将发布。

  百度盘前涨超1%海通证券上调其首季Non-GAAP净利润预测46.7%。

  4月22日金融一线消息,建设银行发布公告才,2025年4月18日,该行董事会审议通过了关于纪志宏副行长兼任该行董事会秘书的议案。根据有关规定,纪志宏兼任该行董事会秘书自董事会审议通过后生效。纪志宏自2025年4月18日起兼任该行董事会秘书。

  T-Mobile的预付费业务部门周二推出了四项新套餐,提供为期五年的价格保障,且每条线路每月费用低至25美元。该公司此举是为了在经济不确定性的背景下,保护自身市场份额免受竞争冲击。

  T-Mobile旗下的Metro推出这些套餐之际,由于持续约两年的通货膨胀,消费者正变得精打细算,同时人们普遍担心美国总统唐纳德・特朗普发起的贸易战可能引发经济衰退。

  这一策略还能保护其市场份额,免受其他供应商的竞争影响。其他供应商正加大促销力度,并将无线业务与宽带套餐捆绑,以吸引客户。

  T-Mobile消费者业务集团总裁乔恩・弗赖尔表示:“我们理解当前的情况。人们的预算确实很紧张。这就是为什么我们为客户提供更高水平的网络连接,以及大家都喜爱的、值得炫耀的福利,而且价格也是大家能够承受的。”

  Metro的四项预付费套餐从周四起开始提供。

  最便宜的套餐名为“Metro入门套餐”,针对四口之家,每条线路每月收费25美元,提供基础服务,并配备5G手机。

  另一项套餐“Metro入门增强套餐”,每月固定收费40美元,且有针对两条线路的特别优惠。

  另外两项预付费套餐分别是“Metro灵活无限套餐”和“Metro灵活无限增强套餐”,对于四条线路,每条线路每月的费用分别为30美元和35美元。

  T-Mobile还推出了两项后付费无线套餐——“畅享更多”和“畅享极致”,其中包含其Go5GPlus服务的权益、更多热点数据,并且在今年年底前还提供基于星链(Starlink)的卫星服务。

  上周,康卡斯特(Comcast)为其Xfinity互联网服务推出了一项新的五年价格锁定套餐,起价为每月55美元。

  本月早些时候,威瑞森(Verizon)也宣布对其myPlan和myHome网络服务的新老客户实施为期三年的价格锁定。

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