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  业内期盼的“英伟达平替”,价值开始显现了!

  4月18日晚,国内领先的AI芯片设计企业寒武纪发布2024年报和2025年一季报。年报显示,2024年公司实现总营收11.74亿元,同比增长65.56%;归母净利润亏损4.52亿元,其中第四季度盈利首次转正。今年一季报更是惊人,公司实现总营收11.11亿元,几乎相当于2024年全年的收入,同比增长4230.22%;实现净利润3.55亿元,同比扭亏为盈。

  分析人士认为,寒武纪业绩的增长表明,国内人工智能芯片已经崛起。在英伟达部分芯片遭禁的背景之下,寒武纪的平替价值正在显现。去年四季度和今年一季度,寒武纪存货余额分别为17.74亿元和27.55亿元,分别环比增加7.6亿元和9.8亿元,存货余额持续创历史新高。而从最近两个季度存货转收入的趋势来看,的确也在持续增长。显示在英伟达芯片受限背景之下,寒武纪备货充足,主力芯片出货可能持续增加。

  惊人的业绩

  日前,寒武纪公布了去年年报和今年一季报,其业绩表现的确惊人。该公司2024年公司实现总营业收入11.74亿元,同比增长65.56%。其中,云端产品线收入占比高达99.30%,较上年同期增长1187.78%;今年一季度,公司实现总营业收入11.11亿元,同比增长4230.22%,实现归母净利润3.55亿元,实现扭亏为盈;今年一季度毛利率为55.99%,较2024年56.71%的毛利率略有下降。

  重要的不是实现了多少业绩,而是业绩增长的趋势和原因。

  寒武纪今年一季度营收大幅增长,几乎相当于去年全年营收。寒武纪在公告中表示,这主要得益于公司在人工智能领域的市场拓展和技术应用的推进。其业绩也出现大幅转正,公司方面表示,主要系报告期内营业收入较上年同期大幅增长,本报告期归属于上市公司股东的净利润及归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润由负转正所致。

  在细节上,更有看点。存货方面,寒武纪今年一季度存货为27.55亿元,较2024年末的17.74亿元,增长超50%。虽然存货增加,但去年的17.74亿存货转化成了今年一季度的11.11亿元。那么,后续市场就可以预期,今年一季度27.55亿元的存货究竟会转化成多大规模的营收和利润。特别是英伟达部分芯片出口受限的背景之下。

  同时,预付账款端显示,寒武纪2025年一季度末预付账款9.73亿元,较2024年年末的7.74亿元同样大幅提升,这意味着公司还处在积极备货当中。

  天风证券认为,存货+预付款连续三个季度处于上升趋势,结合公司现金的减少和预付款、存货与收入的联动关系,可以看到公司的供应链有极强的韧性,同时也预计二季度有更高的收入体量。存货的细则中委托加工物资占比较高,如果从成本端计算并假设合理的比例,公司现有的储备值得看好。

  国产替代趋势正在到来

  有券商研究认为,寒武纪今年一季报可能还只是冰山一角,偶露峥嵘。未来的大趋势可能正在到来。

  从寒武纪管理层表述上看,训练能力上加入对DeepSeek的支持,各类分布式训练与推理的技术已经支持,主持主导国内和国际多类标准的编制。成绩上互联网客户快速突破,第一大客户占比79%。这些都符合产业追踪的信息,其软件易用是核心,这样的能力可以在其他客户身上复制和裂变。

  该机构认为,一方面财报质量较高,另一方面产业链追踪的信息都能在财报内得到体现,这意味着后续表现大概率比今年一季报好,持续增强的趋势刚刚开始。市场担心的生产问题,有分歧的利润率问题,在财报里均有较好的回复。

  部分芯片被禁后,产业已开始加速落地国产化,英伟达下一代阉割款产品的竞争力很难保持。供不应求的大趋势下,国产卡量价齐升的局面已出现明确迹象,产业正向的反馈值得期待。

  天风证券认为,从存货这一前瞻指标和下游的需求看,预计二季度收入与利润释放会更好;目前伴随着H20面临许可证+英伟达计提报表损失,预计国内可能面临超过80万H20芯片的算力缺口,但国内多模态模型与AIAgent产业趋势在即,算力缺口背景下国产算力的重要程度进一步提高。

  美国可能会出现一家新的最大的信用卡公司。  

  美国联邦储备委员会理事会和货币监理署周五宣布,第一资本银行(CapitalOne)已获批收购发现金融服务公司(DiscoverFinancialServices)并与之合并。

  这项全股票交易在一年多前首次宣布,一旦完成,将使第一资本银行在与摩根大通、美国银行和花旗集团等竞争对手的信用卡发行银行的竞争中取得重大优势,因为这些银行本身并不处理交易业务。

  这也将为第一资本银行带来新的收入来源,即从其收取的商户手续费中获利。

  特朗普政府在很大程度上被认为对企业合并更为友好。在特朗普去年11月赢得大选后,第一资本银行和发现金融服务公司的股票随即上涨,其他一些正在尝试合并或此前曾完全取消合并交易的公司的股票也出现了上涨。

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