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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  参加国际货币基金组织(IMF)春季会议的银行业领导人和政策制定者对于金融危机正在逼近的可能性不以为然,尽管有警告称美国发起的贸易战威胁全球市场稳定。

  美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税行动使得世界陷入混乱的贸易战,导致股市、汇市和美国国债市场波动加剧。对全球经济增长的预测纷纷下调,包括德国央行行长JoachimNagel在内的一些人担心经济衰退即将到来。

  包括ScopeRatings分析师在内的专家警告称,市场动荡可能引发下一次金融危机。不过本周齐聚华盛顿春季会议的银行家、监管者和游说人士基本上不以为然。

  “我们面临的不确定性非常高,但这可能不是亘古未有的,”渣打主席JoseVinals表示,并指出世界之前经历过“复杂时期”,包括新冠肺炎大流行病。

  Vinals说,虽然关税轨迹的“不可预测性”令人不安,如果企业和消费者推迟财务决策可能会损害个别经济体,但到目前为止除了股市和美国国债市场的波动之外,几乎还没有造成什么“重大的金融后果”。

  IMF货币和资本市场部主任TobiasAdrian表示,目前的金融状况与之前危机前的状况有几个关键区别。

  他指出,这包括不存在“市场功能失调或制度失灵”,以及增长放缓预计不会很剧烈。他说,近期一些资产类别的价值下跌是在一个非常高的基数上发生的,因此这种下跌可以被视为一种“正常化”。

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