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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)的一位高级官员周四表示,在该组织下调了对这个以出口驱动的亚洲地区的国内生产总值(GDP)预期后,许多亚洲央行有空间放松货币政策,以缓冲美国关税对其经济的冲击。

  国际货币基金组织在其最新的参考预测中称,预计亚洲经济增长在2025年和2026年将分别放缓至约3.9%和4.0%,低于2024年的4.6%,且远低于此前的预期。

  国际货币基金组织亚太部主任克里希纳・斯里尼瓦桑在一场新闻发布会上表示,自今年1月以来,贸易政策的不确定性已显著增加,这进一步恶化了该地区的近期经济前景。

  斯里尼瓦桑称,该地区的政策制定者在应对由美国总统唐纳德・特朗普4月2日宣布对世界上大多数国家征收高额进口关税所引发的经济不确定性时,面临着艰难的权衡抉择。

  不过,这位国际货币基金组织的官员指出,较低的物价压力为亚洲经济体在利率方面提供了一定的操作空间。

  斯里尼瓦桑表示:“在这个通胀大多处于目标水平或低于目标水平的地区,许多国家有放松货币政策的空间,以缓冲外部冲击。”

  亚洲国家受到了一些全球范围内美国最高关税的冲击,其中柬埔寨为49%,越南为46%,泰国为37%。

  斯里尼瓦桑称,亚洲特别容易受到贸易政策冲击的影响,因为该地区的许多经济体对贸易开放,并且是全球供应链中的关键环节。

  他说:“对美国市场的更高暴露程度,再加上全球政策的重大不确定性,使该地区面临脆弱性。”

  “风险倾向于下行。”

  斯里尼瓦桑表示,金融市场的波动导致资本流动和投资进一步受到干扰,这构成了额外的风险。

  他还称,虽然汇率灵活性将是抵御冲击的关键缓冲因素,但在金融市场波动加剧的情况下,货币干预措施可能会发挥作用。

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